Markets have already decided that Trump is going to get re-elected. Which means there is no margin of impeachment:
"A concentration of billionaires who descended this week on Davos, Switzerland for The World Economic Forum’s 50th annual meeting are harboring a “dirty little secret” about the U.S. presidential election in November, says the Hoover Institution’s Niall Ferguson.
“The dirty little secret of Davos 2020 is they all need him to get re-elected”
It's obviously not really a "secret" that the super-rich love Trump. His base still actually believe that he is a man of the people, but anyone with an IQ over five doesn't believe that crap. He is the Fifth Avenue poser loved by billionaires and useful idiots alike. Only in Hollywood.
Here is where it gets interesting. I mean really interesting:
We have ubiquitous indications of record positioning and record valuations almost ten months ahead of the election. If the election were held tomorrow, these optimistic sentiment factors would be a huge benefit to Trump. However, there has been no instance in world history where a bubble of this magnitude has remained elevated for anywhere near that amount of time.
Which is to say that markets are in no way prepared to deal with any form of reality. They are priced for Trump.
Here is Trump's approval rating via Rasmussen:
What we see is that his approval fluctuates with the market, however upside correlation is weakening. Meaning there is all downside no upside, both for over-priced markets and Trump's re-election prospects. Which are now one and the same.
As we saw one year ago, Trump's approval rating tanked with the market:
What could go wrong with voters betting with record leveraged capital on re-election ten months hence?
For one thing, Healthcare and Biotech stocks have surged in the past three months since Elizabeth Warren fell back in the polls. Here we see that Biotech evinces the exact same three wave pattern as indicated by the Global Dow, banks, small caps, retail, autos etc.
In other words, Trump's re-election prospects are tracking social mood. And vice versa:
What people are saying about Elizabeth Warren is that she peaked too early in the polls. A year early to be exact. I suggest that's not true at all.
I suggest that Donny peaked too soon in the Dow. And when it rolls over and crashes like a Boeing 737-Max, so will his chances of getting re-elected. And then all of the super-rich will realize that they made the wrong bet. And there is not going to be another bailout.
Now let's put one and one together:
The dirty little secret of Davos 2020 is that the super-rich all need Trump to get re-elected.
But what they REALLY need are more useful idiots:
Because it's not as if their own cash is going to keep the Dow at this level:
