Monday, January 20, 2020

Davos 2020: A World Run By Proven Idiots

History will say this was a society of cowards living in the fetal position and taking every drug known to man to escape the inconvenient truth. It didn't work...

Not for lack of trying mind you

The downside of electing trusted morons to office is that there is no leadership when the vacation from responsibility unexpectedly explodes in your face:

So far, my prediction for 2020 is 100% on track. First the blow-off top, which is now approaching the right shoulder peak to complete the two year topping process.

Here we see the Global Dow, which includes all major markets, including the U.S. Still below the highs from two years ago. A three wave retracement, predicting third wave panic collapse.

Which is the next step in my 2020 prediction. Panic collapse. Then rioting. I predict Trump will be in jail within a year from now. Handed his orange jumpsuit by his own party.

To be fair, I thought their last circus clown would implode the party. 2008 came close. Fear was extant. However, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke looked to Japan for money printing inspiration. It took the better part of a decade to get Republicans onboard with simulated prosperity. Over the course of eight years, they never bought into the Obama recovery.

That was Trump's job to get them fully onboard with fraud. They haven't figured out that using misallocated capital to vote for alt-reality, doesn't work.

Look up to the Global Dow above, look down. Any questions?

Apparently it takes a con man to fool a con man. Recall, Trump was elected based upon the "deaths of despair" campaign strategy. He actively capitalized upon the blue collar despair that was a direct result of the Bush housing bubble and Global Financial Crisis. Ironically, the leader of the same party that caused the crisis was able to capitalize on the anger resulting from the crisis. A skill Trump learned from the WWE.

How to capitalize on vast ignorance.

It was all a fraud of course, but that's beside the point. It worked. The fox was back in the hen house. Goldman Sachs is back in at Treasury as if 2008 never even happened. Let's recap going back to the last decade: Wall Street creates the subprime market to give cheap money to insolvent homeowners. Next they make massive bets against the housing market using massively leveraged derivatives, the over-leveraged housing market crashes, then the derivatives market crashes, Goldman Sachs at Treasury bails themselves out. Now, Goldman Sachs is back at Treasury overseeing the plundering of the Treasury. In 2019 they collapsed the repo market with record debt issuance to fund offshore bank accounts via the Trump tax cut. The resulting Fed bailout just further inflated the already big, fat, ugly Trump super bubble, featuring the largest and fastest Fed balance sheet expansion since 2009. Full monetization of the Trump deficit.

When he fired Janet Yellen and replaced her with Jerome Powell, Trump was the first president in U.S. history to intentionally politicize the Federal Reserve. In 2019 and now in 2020, Jerome Powell is FULLY financing Trump's deficit.

So far, so bad. The Nasdaq is now the most overbought it's been since the DotCom bubble (based upon RSI).

The crash ratio has reached a new cycle extreme:

Zerohedge just recapped the repo market saga, using Faux News patented fact suppression techniques. In taking on bailout king Neel Kashkari - John Paulson's right hand man throughout the 2008 bailout extravaganza - Zerohedge assiduously forgot to mention that Trump's deficit is what precipitated the repo crisis, when they data mined the BIS analysis on this topic. Here is the part they left out:

"After the debt ceiling was suspended in early August 2019, the US Treasury quickly set out to rebuild its dwindling cash balances, draining more than $120 billion of reserves in the 30 days between 14 August and 17 September alone, and half of this amount in the last week of that period"

When did the repo crisis strike? September 16th.

Fact suppression is now a standard formula used in every aspect of this imploding old age home. One could say that it's a profit making formula intended to continue the status quo as long as possible. It spreads ignorance far and wide, and otherwise soothes the nerves of the aged masses. It's a subscription model.

We have somehow cultivated an entire generation of climate deniers who believe that they are now "scientists". Super dunces who believe that they are more intelligent than the trained experts on the matter. There will never be 100% consensus on ANY subject. You can find denialists on every topic known to man, including whether or not the Earth is round. 

Be that as it may, turning one's back on critical facts and data is a most dangerous game to play. To supplant wisdom with vast ignorance and arrogance, speaks to a society no longer having the courage to face reality. A bloated Idiocracy addicted to consumption. Eating itself to death. It can only end one way - with extraordinary shock and awe, due to the steady accumulation of leveraged stupidity.

Here we see the oil and gas industry sitting out the super Tech bubble and giving lie to Trump's fraudulent recovery:

We will all go down in history as either being for this epic con job or against it. Or, for those truly out of the loop, taken down by the most facile and corrupt known con man in U.S. history.

Choose accordingly.

The first step on the road to recovery is for today's ubiquitous all-knowing idiots to acknowledge they're totally clueless, and always have been. That will be a painful realization. No question about it.

"They waited eight years to get excited about the recovery, elected a well known con man at the end of the cycle, de-regulated corruption, and then final exploded with extreme dislocation. Not one of them saw it coming. It was human history's biggest circle jerk"