Thursday, January 9, 2020

"Good News, New All Time Lies"

We are now seeing the fullest extent of salesmanship culture systematically weaponized against society, to enrich the few at the expense of the many. Commercialized perma-optimism having invaded every facet of society. Including what now passes for "economics" aka. money printing. All, the inevitable result of a consequence-free bailout from 2008, and of course exceptional mythology, running on the glue fumes of recycled failure. Now nothing more than a Darwinian zero sum game. Exceptional only in its ability to use people up.

Those who willingly propagated this fraud have sold off all semblance of future credibility. Human call options on Donald Trump. 






Looking back, the adjectives that will be most often applied to the MAGA Kingdom in the future will be: farcical, fraudulent, pathetic, and of course criminal. In 2016, the fox was granted open access to the hen house. However, unlike 2008 when today's financial services con men got a free pass, I predict jail time at the end of this, for what currently passes for "corruption as usual". The allocation of capital to human history's largest Ponzi scheme aka. Trump Casino. While insiders cashed out in size...













Below we see the GDP growth rate (blue) with the Federal surplus/deficit (red line). Clinton had the strongest GDP growth and ran a surplus. Bush had the next strongest GDP growth albeit deficit (tax cut) driven. Obama had the third highest GDP growth while digging out of the deficit chasm of 2008. Trump has the weakest GDP growth despite the greatest deficit expansion since 2008:

"Greatest 'Conomy ever"






Stock market divided by U.S. debt






It's a testament to the criminality of today's financial engineering that "stocks" can be making new all time highs without the participation of ANY of the economically correlated sectors.

Energy and retail are the weakest sectors. Followed by autos and transports. All well below their all time highs.

Banks are where things get interesting.

On the weak end of the spectrum there is Wells Fargo, making its third lower high since peaking two years ago this month:






On the strong end of the continuum there is JP Morgan, prime beneficiary of 2008:





The bank index overall, is corrective having peaked two years ago this month:





Of course the housing market never really recovered after 2008





As it was during the housing bubble, we are being lied to constantly about the housing market. By the exact same criminals, who are telling us that supply is "too tight". Which is only true at the lowest end of the market. The upper end of the market is massively over-supplied. 





Chinese stocks are "leading" this last leg of the rally, ahead of next week's big trade deal signing. Celebrating a year over year increase in tariffs:









It appears that the trade war has had the effect of obfuscating the collapse of the global economy, as exporters/importers rushed to front-run the new tariffs:




"The Baltic Dry Index, the Baltic Exchange’s key sea freight index, has suffered its largest fall in the past seventeen years."

the severity of the plunge indicates an end to the so-called ‘front-loading’ effect of tariff deadlines.


As the US-China trade war rumbled on for more than 18 months depressing global growth, firms rushed to import goods before the latest tariff deadlines."






Tech is parabolic:


AMD, the top performing S&P stock two years in a row just got upgraded.




"Time to buy"













Move along, nothing to see here...








In summary:

The partisan divide has never been wider:

And for that we can thank Faux News and the rest of the alt-right business media.

Human history's biggest circle jerk of well known liars, frauds, and criminals: