Monday, November 23, 2020

MAGA: License To Explode

It's fitting that human history's biggest circle jerk is ending amid biblical denial...

Many people are now comparing Trump to a cult leader, fearing that his following will continue after he leaves office. They need not fear, because Trump is the Jim Jones of presidents, which means his following will not be intact by the time he gets escorted out of the building by his own fractured party. Nixon style...

"Who's next?"
"Bernie Madoff, Gary Busey, Charles Manson"
"Flawed individuals, but they share our values"

"As the endgame approaches, those still nominally in charge of the collapsing empire resort to all sorts of desperate measures—all except one: they will refuse to ever consider the fact that their imperial superpower is at an end, and that they should change their ways accordingly"

MAGA was the definition of desperation. From the beginning, the MAGA movement was a late stage fairy tale of denial. Going back to 2016 we had the shock Brexit vote in the summer followed by the shock Trump election in November. Nationalism was on the rise globally. What ensued of course was tax cut and de-regulatory insanity that kept the longest cycle in history going for another four years. 2017 saw a massive capital rotation to cyclicals which ginned markets up to the February 2018 crash. Then 2018 saw the largest one-time tax repatriation in U.S. history which ginned markets up to the October 2018 crash. By 2019 deflation had returned with a vengeance, so the Fed ginned markets up to the February 2020 crash. Starting in 2019, net of the chasmic deficit, the economy was already in recession pre-Covid. So it all makes perfect "sense" that this COVID Ponzi bubble is attended by a lethal overdose of combined fiscal and monetary heroin.

I have said many times that this super bubble is what prevents the GOP from passing additional stimulus. Why? Because THEIR economy is doing just fine according to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Ironically, it's this myopia that will be their final undoing. Over the past 24 hours we've been getting conflicting headlines stating that Biden would cave to McConnell's pressure and agree to pass a mini stimulus before the end of the year. This is the headline that gave the casino a large blastoff Monday morning:

"Advisers to President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. are planning for the increasing likelihood that the United States economy is headed for a “double-dip” recession early next year. They are pushing for Democratic leaders in Congress to reach a quick stimulus deal with Senate Republicans, even if it falls short of the larger package Democrats have been seeking"

Several Republicans have expressed wariness about spending much more, revisiting concerns about the national debt and insisting that the economy is improving"

Democrats have rejected multiple Senate Republican proposals — the latest at about $500 billion — as insufficient...Mr. Zandi said that such a package “maybe barely gets you through to a vaccine” but risks running out when the economy still needs help.

Monday morning the market ignored the part about recession and focused instead on the prospects for an insufficient mini deal.

Next we got this conflicting headline Monday morning:

"President-elect Joe Biden's transition team on Monday pushed back on a report that he would favor a quicker economic relief deal, even if it meant ceding ground on some Democratic demands"

Here is my take on this lethal brinkmanship:

First off, Republicans have just newly re-discovered fiscal propriety having lost all fiscal continence over the past four years. We've seen this movie many times before - deficits are only bad when Democrats are in office. Bailouts are only bad for people who are starving, as opposed to billionaires. We are seeing their true stripes emerge once again. 

There are now three potential near-term stimulus outcomes prior to inauguration:

No deal, which is arguably most likely.
Secondly, some sort of mini deal which will be wholly inadequate.
Or three the Pelosi bill which is the amount that is needed, and  is least likely to occur.

In other words, a double dip recession is now the by far the most likely outcome, even if some mini deal is passed. 

Given that a double dip recession just became the most likely scenario, why are cyclical stocks making new all time parabolic highs today? It's because as we've seen throughout the entire MAGA delusion, markets will believe the Republican fantasy narrative no matter how delusional or denialistic it may be. It's groupthink on steroids. And if you listen to the people who propagate it, it's always the "Goldilocks" scenario. Not too hot and not too cold. The MAGA fairy tale was always doomed to end amid lethal denial. And we are now watching it happen. In real-time.

No wonder Trump Country doesn't like Fox News anymore. Now that Biden got elected, Fox News finally discovered the truth. So it's time to find a new source of fantasy:

"A vaccine is likely to be available to frontline health care and other essential workers and at-risk populations by the spring and to everyone else in the second half of 2021, giving a “meaningful support to growth” by the middle of the year"

In summary, it's very appropriate that a massive fairy tale end at the height of fantasy: