Tuesday, November 17, 2020

FOMO: Fear Of Missing Obliteration

It was inevitable that a narcissistic psychopath would one day become president. Trump is the Jim Jones of presidents. His legacy will be measured in astronomical body count...

FOMO on the left shoulder and FOMO on the right:

A combination of events have coalesced to create a lethal winter interregnum at the behest of an intransigent psychopath. 

When the COVID crisis hit, Trump's signature response was denial, blame, and incompetence. He first went to great lengths to obscure the lethality of the virus, as described in Bob Woodward's latest book, Rage. And then Trump went to great lengths to ridicule mitigation measures such as masks and social distancing. Instead he placed all of his efforts on developing a vaccine at "Warp Speed". He bet that a vaccine could be created before the winter of COVID hell. He was right, the vaccine has been created. However, it's not the vaccine that matters, it's vaccinations that matter. Fully half of Americans have already decided they won't be getting vaccinated from COVID. In addition, there are the logistics of distributing the vaccine to millions of people, a process that will take several months. 

What to do, as COVID cases skyrocket? Trump is now actively blocking the incoming Biden administration from accessing the transition resources they need to plan an effective COVID strategy. Which means that the Biden administration will be several months behind the curve when they take over. In the meantime, Trump's body count will be piling up to record levels.

Trump has ample assistance from his rabid base of denialists. One must wonder if they really don't believe this virus is real or if they have some sort of death wish. These are the least healthy people on the planet. Many of them have marginal access to healthcare. And yet they continue to play along with the theme that this rising death toll is merely a hoax propagated by Democrats to win the election. Or, a "plandemic" to place more economic control in the hands of Jeff Bezos.

No one can stop Trump. The much feared "Deep State" has been wholly incapable of derailing Trump's subversion of democracy. History informs that nothing is as vicious as a Fascist party that refuses to relinquish power. They will use every trick in the book to hold on to the White House.

Only Covid can stop them, the very thing they deny.

This lethal delusion is driven by manic social mood that attends a monetary asset bubble now reaching new all time highs, while the economy collapses. Global central banks have done their part to administer lethal doses of monetary euthanasia to the Soylent Idiocracy.   

This graph below shows that ex-deficit, this is the worst economy since the Great Depression. I call this honest GDP because it adjusts for the ludicrous amounts of borrowing that give this economy the illusion of recovery. Had prior administrations been as profligate as the current one, the U.S. would have been bankrupt decades ago:

The intersection of maximum pain is GOP intransigence on stimulus during a skyrocketing pandemic. States that had ordered lockdowns in the Spring are now reluctant to do so in absence of a Federal safety net of the type offered six months ago:

"Polis said that it’s not fair to impose a stay at home order, especially when the federal government was not offering the same benefits to Americans who would be forced out of work as it had done earlier in the pandemic."

With its uniquely deficient virus response the U.S. is diverging massively from the rest of the world. While Trump focuses his attention on frivolous lawsuits and his election temper tantrum, the U.S. has become the outlier nation with respect to COVID impact.

As the data comes in over the coming weeks showing wholesale economic collapse, Treasury bond yields will collapse. Which will unwind the STILL record Treasury bond short.

And then the Trump Super Bubble will explode.