Saturday, November 28, 2020

Global Ponzi Supernova

You had me at hello...

The Trump MAGA party got kicked off four years ago when the overnight brick shitting "WTF?" turned into a vertical global rally into the Trump tax cut. The minute the tax cut came into effect (Feb. 5, 2018), the global rally exploded. Since the March lows, global risk assets have been melting up on the prospects of a miracle vaccine. 

I think we all see where I'm going with this:

Sadly, it's not airlifted vaccines that matter, it's vaccinations that matter. And since Trump country is of the belief that COVID is a hoax, they don't plan to get vaccinated. Here is some 3rd grade math to demonstrate the problem:

"Overall, 58% of Americans said they would get vaccinated, forty-two percent said they would be unwilling to get a vaccine"

Some 70% of the U.S. population of 330 million would need to be inoculated to achieve herd immunity"

Citi Research wrote in a note on Monday that herd immunity would not form until late 2021, boosting global Gross Domestic Product growth by only 0.7% next year compared with an estimated 3% gain in 2022

I think we see the problem, the same denialists who don't believe in masks, social distancing and COVID will now prevent the vaccine from working. Is it possible that there are too many dumbfucks running rampant? That's my operating hypothesis. 

“We have to hold on because hope is coming. A vaccine is coming”

Hope is in over-abundance. However inconvenient reality doesn't exist in Disneyland:

This past Tuesday, I warned that Black Friday would be "different" this year:

“We knew Black Friday [traffic] was going to be down, we just didn’t know how much it was going to be down,”

If you don't know, now you know. This is not the sector that should have led the November short covering bonanza:

Getting back to asset supernova...

Bubble of the year, clean energy fifth wave extension:

Software and volatility, deja vu of September rout:

There were ten false rallies during the Great Depression, roughly one per year:

“This recession was entirely about COVID-19 and if you can develop a vaccine for COVID-19 and get it distributed rapidly enough, you are going to have a V-shaped recovery"

Or, you could have another post-election overthrow headfake driven by free money, and ubiquitous con artists: