Tuesday, December 17, 2019

The 2020 Election Is Rigged. To Explode.

History will say that out-of-control greed wiped the Banana Republican party off the map. Imploded by the last Trump Casino, rigged with record stimulus gimmicks to buy the 2020 election. The End...

Over the past decade the entire world turned into Japan - an old age home run by and for demented geezers who can't accept that the past is over. Unwilling to make a paradigm shift away from relentless greed to something more civilized. Recycling failed stimulus gimmicks over and over again, each time expecting a different result. Culminating in a record asset bubble in which faith in the central bank Jedi Mind Trick for weak minded fools is now complete...

Any questions?

“What was once extraordinary has become ordinary, not just in the United States but all over the world”

The real pioneer of QE, though, was the Bank of Japan, which has practiced expansionary monetary policy for decades, though to less clear results. The BOJ has exploded its holdings by some $4.5 trillion over the years, only to experience minimal growth that included the “lost decade” of the 1990s."

There is a belief right now within the Fed, the White House, Wall Street, and Zerohedge, that central banks can keep asset bubbles growing forever, or until the November 2020 election, whichever comes first.

"In other words, it appears that neither Trump, not Powell, will allow the S&P to dip even modestly before November [2020]. After that, however, all hell breaks loose."

Unfortunately for that asinine delusion, as both Japan AND China have discovered the hard way, central banks can't just continue inflating ever-larger bubbles. Not for lack of trying mind you.

No country has done more to prop up their stock market than Japan - including buying up half of the stock ETFs, and yet the Nikkei has gone nowhere for two years straight:

"China is set to record its weakest growth in GDP in 25 years. Yet it seems to have entered a bull market and may be where we deploy much more of our risk capital next year. That's because the recent exuberant run up in onshore Chinese equities seems to me to amply demonstrate the power of imagined realities."

The Chinese state is the largest shareholder in the Chinese financial system. That surely makes its ability to stave off a liquidity crisis pretty much limitless"

July 2015:

"All that’s left to happen in China’s stock market is for government leaders to admit they are powerless to stop a selloff."

When policy-makers actively encourage melt-up bubble chasing, I call it Shanghai Surprise. Which is the fate that now awaits U.S. bubble chasers, stoned on imagined realities. 

"Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, led by strategists Michael Hartnett, described the market as “primed for Q1 2020 risk asset melt-up,” with the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank still providing ample support to portions of the market and economy that have shown some signs of softness."

"Melt-up will begin soon"

"It is important to note that the a so-called melt-up is considered by market pundits as the end phase of an asset bubble"

"I'm waiting for a greater fool to buy me out at a higher price"

“However, the percentage of S&P 1500 companies with positive forward EPS growth has deteriorated meaningfully since 2018”

“Further, the current level of this measure is worse than it was during the 2015–2016 manufacturing recession, a trend driven mainly by smaller-capitalization companies which are struggling with higher labor costs” 

"Don't worry, the Fed is providing ample support to portions of the market showing signs of softness"