Friday, December 6, 2019

Competitive Buffoonery

If any individual country attempted these over-stimulus gimmicks, it would have blown up a long time ago. When everyone pursues madness at the same time, it's "good policy"...

This is the first cycle in human history wherein all of the fiscal and monetary stimulus has been squandered during the "expansion" phase. Not only has there been no real effort to normalize policy and build a rainy day buffer, but there is still FULL ON stimulus ten years from recession. Which gives lie to the idea that it's a real expansion at all. This has never been an organically sustainable economic recovery for ten years now. At all times it was either fed by monetary or fiscal over-stimulus, both in the U.S. and in the rest of the world.

Now, policy-makers have no dry powder left for when the cycle ends. Which is why this cycle can never end, in theory and fantasy. It must be in a perpetual state of "mid-cycle" adjustment. Until it explodes spectacularly, which is the only way this ends. I know, no one can predict the inevitable. 

One can see how the burden of truth remains on us skeptics of mass delusion and mass deception. Those who believe in this type of mass manipulation are currently viewed as the economic "experts" of the day. The ones who have bet all of their credibility believing in a stimulus-driven cycle that never ends. The first one of its kind in human history. 

One can also see where sanity has been put at risk, by constantly ignoring the rules of basic economics and reality. For my part, I would rather sacrifice short term "credibility", to retain my long-term sanity and credibility. Those among us who operate on the quarterly profit boundary clearly don't have that option. They are now call options on a cycle that for them has no acknowledged endpoint. They've made the conscious choice to not see it coming.

It's been three years since we heard one word of truth out of this guy. And we can thank his supporters for keeping this con job going this entire time. 

"The Fed is not doing their job. The Fed is being more political than Secretary Clinton"