Wednesday, October 21, 2020

The Art Of The Implosion

 Sadly, the U.S. can't afford another four years of greatness...

Trump has always maintained that if Biden gets elected the stock market will crash. Whereas if he gets re-elected his mega bubble will grow to infinity. However, the market has been rallying on the now universal presumption of a Biden win. With only two weeks to go, the polls are narrowing and now it's Trump who is not priced in to this equation. Ironically, it's ONLY because of the Biden rally that Trump's prospects still look good.

"All but two times since World War II, a higher stock market going into the election has signaled the incumbent president or his party would win the election...“Normally, the S&P predicts the presidential election, but that’s usually confirmed by the election portfolio...a portfolio of stocks that should do well during a Biden presidency have been outperforming Trump stocks"

That's an understatement. The markets have been abandoning Trump for four years straight:

What's also ironic is that Trump is closer to a deal with Pelosi than he is with his own party:

"The developments on Capitol Hill amounted to an extraordinary scene two weeks before the election, in which a badly weakened president was throwing concessions at Democrats to cement a deal that his own party was resisting"

Above all, Republicans fretted that a vote on such a package could interfere with their hasty timetable for confirming Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court by early next week"

Got that? The GOP just threw Trump under the bus in order to stack the Supreme Court with Jesus freaks. We can surmise that this never-ending stimulus deal is all political theater now. Which is what Goldman Sachs has concluded:

"Even if a deal in principle is announced in coming days — this seems possible, but not likely — it looks very unlikely that it would pass before Election Day.”

Among other markets assuming a Biden win, is the best performing stock market of 2020:

The sector that has performed the best under Trump, is the virtual economy. What else?

This week, it's beginning to unravel. 

This is the daily chart of the same ETF:

Team Groupthink is starting to realize that mass delusion is a crowded trade. Time to get back on Bloomberg Messenger and broadcast a change of plans. 

Picture all money managers pulling the plug at the same time. Because they realize that King Donny could get re-elected.

In summary, this current week is the 1987 crash anniversary. Whereas next week is the 1929 crash anniversary. Trump true believers are about to get everything they deserve.