Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Revisiting October Crash

The most likely scenario is a massive October crash deja vu of 1929 and 1987. The MAGA Kingdom expectation is for happily ever after. And if it doesn't come true, it will be a Deep State conspiracy. We will soon find out who wins, human history's biggest circle jerk of like-minded fools, or inconvenient reality. Because it can't be left to the Democrats to fuck this up again...

I can tell that weak bears are getting impatient with the length of time it's taking for market reality to show up for work. It's been over a month now since the market peak and the S&P just scored a new month-high close. Today's super lubricated gamblers should be aware that the same pattern emerged in 1929 and 1987:

Here is the 1929 Dow:

The 1987 S&P 500 is actually more similar to the pattern now, because the rally is bisected by the 50 day moving average:

Today's S&P. Below.

What each scenario has in common is a spectacular FOMO melt-up rally into late August, followed by a September mini crash. A weak rally back that lasts 4-5 weeks...

So far:

Here we see that most skeptics of Disney markets have thrown in the towel. They are less protected now than they were at the top in September:

Some would call me an alarmist to question the standard happily ever after narrative.

After all, Trump true believers have everything they want: An Anti-Christ immune to COVID (As I surmised all along). A headfake reflation rally in a virtual economy. An imaginary stimulus deal that is at least four months away. A manic reach for risk. 100% faith in printed money. And a chart pattern that emulates the two largest crashes in U.S. history.

But what they really want is another rigged election. 

Unfortunately, you can't have everything.