Thursday, October 29, 2020

Just Another Trump And Dump

Trump has been lying about the economy for four years straight, why stop now? 

The bankruptcy artist known as Donald J. Trump became president at the happy moment in 244 years of U.S. history when the continuously dumbed down populace finally began to believe that debt is GDP. Coincidence? I don't think so.

"As a businessman, Donald Trump ran 6 businesses that declared bankruptcy because they couldn’t pay their bills. As the president running for a second term, Trump is repeating some of the mistakes he made as a businessman and risking the downfall of yet another venture: his own political operation."

Today, Trump took credit for the bounce back in GDP following the black hole GDP implosion created by COVID. He seized on the largest ever one quarter increase as a sign of his economic prowess:

It's clear that the Wharton graduate in the White House doesn't understand 5th grade math. Because a 33% decrease in GDP requires a 50% increase to get back to break-even, as explained by one of his unimpressed commentators:

A one quarter bounce back in GDP from depressionary levels is meaningless when looked at from the perspective of the entire year 2020. The IMF currently estimates full year U.S. full year GDP growth at -4.3%. Meanwhile, we see below via the Fed database that the U.S. debt has grown a staggering +27% of GDP in the past four quarters. Something we have heard nowhere in the Financial press. 

It's clear that the U.S. debt is now totally out of control due to the three GOP tax cuts under Reagan, Bush Jr., and Trump. Note that the debt is now growing far faster than indicated by the operating deficit (below). Meaning that the deficit is no longer capturing the complete Ponzi borrowing predicament; however directionally one gets the idea of where things are headed:

Another disaster Trump took full credit for today was a de minimis drop in jobless claims from apocalyptic levels. 

The four week moving average of claims, also via the Fed database shows that this "recovery" remains worse than at any time during 2008:

When the populace at large is so dumbfucked that they would approve of this level of criminality, then they fully deserve the final implosion that's coming.

Which gets us to Trump Casino:

So far this week, there have been two 90% down days, meaning 90% of stocks were down on the day, all sectors down. Nowhere to hide.

Today (Thursday), "safe havens" are backtesting the last line of support.

The almighty Dow, which peaked back in February, and is now in a bear market, is on the ropes. As the fake reflation trade has now officially turned into pixie dust:

I shit you not:

"A nine-year-old video communication software provider is now worth more than an oil giant that can trace its founding back to John D. Rockefeller's 1870 formation of Standard Oil."

Just seven years ago Exxon was the largest market cap company in the world, when oil peaked in this cycle above $100/bbl.

"And then the work from home bubble exploded"

Tonight, four of the largest Tech giants are releasing earnings: Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook. The stocks are rallying into the event, having been hammered earlier in the week. 

Tech companies were on the hot seat yesterday in Washington, attempting to explain to Democrats why they allow so many dumbfuck conspiracy theories on their platforms. While trying to explain to Republicans why they don't allow enough conspiracy theories on their platforms. It's called a no-win situation, and highly indicative of what is going on in the MAGA Kingdom right now:

“Democrats often say that we don’t remove enough content, and Republicans often say we remove too much,” Zuckerberg said in his opening remarks.

Nevertheless, these wouldn't be true Disney markets, if these stocks were not the last ones making new highs this week. I think we all see where I'm going with this:

Outside of the MAGA Kingdom, there is now a renewed fear of a repeat of the March lockdown implosion:

"Europe's COVID-19 outbreak is rapidly resurging, prompting a flurry of new lockdowns like those seen in the spring."

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country's top epidemiologist, told CNBC on Wednesday: "If things do not change ... there's gonna be a whole lot of pain in this country with regard to additional cases and hospitalizations, and deaths."

"What does he know?"

In summary: