Friday, October 2, 2020

The Age Of The Con Man Is Ending. Badly.

In the same month we learned via Bob Woodward's new book Rage, how much Trump intentionally lied about the virus, Trump gets the virus. That's biblical...

Feb. 7th, 2020: Woodward private interview
"'Pretty amazing. This is more deadly than the flu, maybe five times more so. This is deadly stuff' Trump repeated."

Feb. 20th, 2020:
 Public press Briefing
"'This is a flu, this is like a regular flu we have flu shots for. And we we'll have a flu shot in a fairly quick manner"

The greater power struck Denialist Donny with the COVID at the worst possible time. The alt-right media is trying to play it down as a mild case, however, the symptoms are always mild at the beginning. If Trump was asymptomatic - which is what these fake pandemic experts are believing - he wouldn't have any symptoms at all. Time will tell if the all Twinkie and Coke diet conveys special healing powers upon the rotund grotesque. If so, the CDC may have to reverse their recovery guidelines from healthy diet and exercise to frankenfood and inertia. Here I had always believed that the Anti-Christ was immune from viruses. Of course this momentous event just caps off four years of non-stop circus spectacle and rampant denial. We will miss this historically ill-fated gong show when it's over, like a convalescent misses bad cancer. At this latent juncture what passes for exceptionalism is monetary euthanasia administered to an aged populace of addicted casino gamblers. While the entire world implodes in real time. 

Still, there is no indication yet that this "Black Swan" event has moved McConnell any closer to a deal. Last night the House Democrats passed a partisan stimulus bill, which leaves Pelosi and McConnell a mere order of magnitude apart: $2.2t versus $300 billion. And yet every rally is attended by the headline that a deal is imminent. 

To paraphrase Jim Cramer this morning, Republicans have circle jerked themselves into the belief that this is a v-shaped recovery and hence no additional stimulus is needed. Especially the kind that falls into enemy hands. Meanwhile, today's jobs report was an abysmal miss, overshadowed by Donny's quarantine. Also this week, word of mass layoffs at major airlines, Walt Disney, Allstate and several other major companies. It appears that quarterly profits can no longer wait for the make-believe v-shaped recovery to never appear. Hence this abysmal jobs report was likely the best we will be seeing for a long time. On the delusional belief that they have the strong hand, Republicans are playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.

What it all points to is a momentous crash right in front of the election. What we are seeing in Trump Casino is eerily similar to the beginning of September. An IPO led ramp into the end of month crossover. This time of course, instead of being first wave down in social mood, it's third wave down. Gamblers spent the entire month of September buying the dip, and now they will puke it all back into a bidless market in October.

Here we see the all important IPO market with a red candle on the second day of the month. Look familiar?

Wave 1 and 3 are one month apart:

Here is the longer-term version of the chart above.

What we are witnessing is a super cycle top in stocks that is taking a long time to complete - an entire month just for wave 2 - but will nevertheless end in deeply stained underwear. 

For those who trust known con men.