Friday, March 13, 2020

This Bailout Is A Hoax

For the coming week I predict brick shitting fear in the MAGA Kingdom. The last Trump Casino is about to be quarantined. No way out. The stock market's true value is a full underwear load below these levels...

The next scheduled bailout comes Wednesday aka. two limit down sessions from today. At that meeting the Fed will cut rates to 1930 levels. Brainwashed idiots are tripping over themselves to BTFD: Buy the Fucking Depression. To win this election Joe Biden only needs to remember his name, albeit not easy. We're going to miss Donny jacking off his base of useful idiots. I always said he would sequester more carbon than anyone else in history.

Any questions?

We are watching a waterfall crash in real-time. Each rally becomes shorter yet more violent. Then it all falls apart again. Today's bazooka has the same signature as the prior failed bailouts. If the pattern continues, Monday will be a bloodbath. The next scheduled bailout is Wednesday at the FOMC meeting when the Fed is expected to cut rates all the way to 0% - a full percentage point of cut.

How bullish is that?

"Stocks could continue to trade with extreme volatility in the week ahead, after this week’s biggest one-day loss since 1987 was followed by the best one-day gain since the financial crisis."

Volume and volatility are increasing across all asset classes at the same time

And yet investors remain bullishly positioned in oil and gold and remain short treasuries and volatility. Basically all pro-bullish trades.

Bets on a successful bailout. What else?

Home gamers remain ALL IN Trump Casino:

In other words, the scenario I've been predicting of a limit down Trump Casino halted for the day by mid-morning is getting closer by the hour. The casino was only saved Friday (today) by RECORD global coordinated intervention. Already, there are those calling for a complete halt to the markets deja vu of post-9/11 which saw a one week shutdown:

Prior to 9/11, the longest stock market shutdown took place in 1933.

However when asked today by a CNBC pundit if the stock market should be closed, Steven Mnuchin said no, he believed that would undermine confidence. We will see how he feels next week when the market is halted by circuit breakers amid extant panic.

Unfortunately, closing the casino for days at a time doesn't work, as the Chinese found out the hard way in 2015. The selling merely accelerates when the market re-opens. At some point they are going to have to remove these training wheels and allow the casino to find its true price. Which will be a full underwear load lower. 

Despite the largest rally since October 2008, the VIX was actually green during the middle of the today and then it got algo-pounded down at the close. When Trump finished his bullshit speech this afternoon, the S&P gained 170 points in :10 minutes: 6.6%. Half a year of return in ten minutes. 

Volatility sensitivity increased substantially today, to the highest level since VixPlosion 1.0:

In summary, the noose is tight and the door to Trump Casino is now essentially closed.

Gamblers who believe they can trade faster than co-located servers at the NYSE will be competing to get their trades executed between trading halts.

When the Fed cuts rates to zero and volatility explodes to level 11 maximum, the underwear will be mighty stained.

ETF dislocations combined with trading halts will provide an elevator ride lower.

When they remove all trading curbs, the pavement looms.