Wednesday, March 18, 2020

The Super Moron Bubble Is Over

The Dow gave back ALL of the MAGA era gains today. The Trump Super Moron bubble has officially exploded...

We know it was named accurately, because those who populate the bubble have no clue that it's over. Still buying the incipient depression with both hands.

In my fifty two year lifetime we've never seen a global simultaneous quarantine. The quality of information is so low right now that we can't tell if this is a viral pandemic, a social media pandemonium, or some combination of both.

Last Friday, Trump's pet monkey, Steve Mnuchin advised BTFD in conjunction with the stimulus package du jour. On Monday this week he declared he does not see a recession on the horizon. Last night (Tuesday), he monkey hammered the overnight futures when he said that we are headed for greater depression:

Is this non-stop lying leadership? Of course not, it's the exact opposite, it's dealership. The conning of the masses to achieve one's own political and economic benefit. Which is why Trump's base love him so much, he exhibits their exact same non-existent values.

Unfortunately, this time they bought their own lies, and it will be the hardest landing one could possibly imagine. Biblical in magnitude and impact. Having their own Kool-Aid dispensing sociopath in the White House is the last nail in their coffin. 

There is NO STIMULUS package that will offset shutting down the entire economy. The government can't bail out everyone at the same time. This is the ultimate reset which will force this zombified corporate Idiocracy to give up their consumption addictions once and for all. 

Cold turkey.

The good news is that the sun is still shining and the birds are still chirping. Meanwhile the carbon level has collapsed like a cheap tent. This virus is like ten Paris conferences on climate change coming to realization at the same time. Compliments of a denialist society caught with their pants around their ankles by mother nature herself. This global pandemic response is human history's biggest clusterfuck. How much of this knee-jerk reaction is merely to protect poll ratings ahead of the next election? Each politician not wanting to be seen as under-reacting to the old age home's existential fear of everything.

Getting back to the casino, this is officially the most vicious market crash in history, however, we haven't seen anything yet. The true elevator ride lower has yet to begin. These daily bailouts have merely forestalled the inevitable. Leading to a false sense of confidence among today's profoundly euthanized masses.

"The S&P 500 recorded its quickest bear market ever, falling 20% from its peak in just 15 trading days. That's twice as fast as the next quickest meltdown. That was in 1929, and it took 30 trading days."

In other words, this meltdown is twice as bad as the prior worst meltdown in history. And yet, the market remains in an overbought condition due to the BTFD mentality. There is STILL no sign of human panic:

Does this look like panic?

Stoned gamblers have been assured they can ride out greater depression.

Here we see the stair step lower towards the looming abyss. Every time the market bounces, we end up limit down overnight. 

This is where it gets interesting:

Despite record volatility and the fastest bear market in history, the market is two week overbought:

Why? Because of bailout BTFD:

We are seeing record volatility across every asset class at the same time. 

The Fed STILL hasn't cornered the t-bond market which is causing dislocations across the entire bond market, as the "risk free rate" gyrates out of control. They will will have to increase their bond purchases by an order of magnitude.

The corporate bond market is bidless:

They keep talking about shutting down the casino, but so far, they haven't pulled the trigger. The Dow's close on Monday tagged the second circuit breaker level (-13%) at the close. Once the third circuit breaker is reached -20%, shutdown will be automatic.

When that happens it will be too late to panic. Global financial meltdown will be de facto. And there will be no way out of Trump Casino.