In summary, the only people who are fooled by this con job are all economists, media dumbfucks, politicians and 7.5 billion hairless monkeys, plus or minus.
The algo-driven S&P has been oscillating between the 50 day and 200 day moving average for six weeks, but who's counting. Today is the third back-test of the 200 day moving average.
The machinations keeping the casino pinned at this new "permanent" level of delusion are central banks, momentum algos, denialistic idiots, and too many weak bears getting rinsed constantly.
Morons who keep putting stop losses at the 200 day:
On the topic of extreme delusion, this is the most deflationary event in human history which is why the fake reflation trade remains well bid. For now. This is the exact same pattern we saw in February. Featuring a tall wick on the daily:
Alongside the fake reflation fantasy, leadership is shared by the extreme deflationary Jim Cramer stay-at-home "COVID-19" virtual economy index.
(No actual index exists called the COVID-19 yet, however, I expect a new ETF any day now).
However, most of these new Tech stocks are recent IPOs, which is very handy when it comes to getting the all-important Wall Street IPO pump and dump back on track. Think Zoom, Peloton, Wayfair, revenueless Biotechs etc. etc...
What took 14 months during the last rally, just took 2 months now:
"That's not FOMO, THIS is FOMO"
The only stocks NOT taking part in this grand re-opening rally are the stocks representing the actual economy. Although they are up almost 9% today compliments of Energy. Which is further indication that this rally is running on glue fumes.
Those who believe this is 2009 deja vu and hence the beginning of a new bull market, either were not around in 2009, or are sniffing glue.
Or, are working on Wall Street and afraid they are about to lose their jobs, which is the case of this capitulated perma-bear who decided now is a great time to buy stocks:
Among other mistakes, Wall Street analysts are still in massive denial as to how many companies are about to go bankrupt. They are driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror. Wall Street future projections are never anything more than an extrapolation of the recent past.
"This is 2009 all over again"
Has anyone figured out why economists are such fools? And why the public at large continues believing them? These will be among the biggest questions of this entire age - how can so many university trained "experts" be so fucking dumb. It's Groupthink on a massive scale. They can never admit that their life's work is a COLOSSAL failure. These will be the next people to lose their jobs as college enrollment collapses like a cheap tent. The $200k four year college frat party is ending.
This study looked at how the $1200 stimulus checks were being spent. The economists believed that people would use them to buy cars and appliances - despite the fact that car dealerships and shopping malls are on lockdown. They were shocked to find that people spent the money on rent and food.
“Given the size of the 2020 stimulus checks, we might have expected large impacts on categories like automobile spending, electronics, appliances, and home furnishings”
“Instead, it seems that individuals are catching up with rent and bill payments as well as engaging in spending on food, personal care, and nondurables.”
Where do you buy a $1200 car online, Amazon?
These people only know about the economic multiplier only in the most superficial text book sense of the term. This is a year over year comparison of the 2019 rally versus this current rally - the S&P has traveled roughly the same distance. This was entirely a Tech led rally, the rest of the economy is dead:
I still predict that semiconductors will ultimately lead the market higher from the true low, as they usually do. However, now they are lagging badly due to the newly re-ignited trade war.
Given his eroding re-election prospects, Trump must now once again dust off his patented strategy of using China as his scapegoat for all problems.
Meaning the much vaunted "trade deal" is over. He had to tear up this fake trade deal in order to get to the next fake trade deal.
Here is the longer-term view of semiconductors for perspective. The first crash in Y2K wasn't that bad. However, those of us who thought the retracement rally was a new bull market were in for a real treat as the Nasdaq tanked -80% in two years.
Good times.
One exception to semiconductor underperformance is Nvidia which is part of the video game stay-at-home trade. Now in parabolic blow-off mode. As it was in February.
So-called safe haven stocks are ready to re-implode.
Bueller?
In summary, JC Penney is now officially bankrupt, meaning Amazon "won" the war of the 100% virtual economy.
NOW, the casino class is going to partake in the Pyrrhic spoils of victory. And learn the hardest way possible that there is no such thing as a virtual economy.
And that only total fucking morons would believe otherwise.
Today's economists who collectively exhibit the IQ of a dead gopher, will NEVER be trusted again.
