Thursday, May 7, 2020

The Biggest Dumb Money Bubble In Human History

MAGA will forever be known as the biggest dumb money bubble in human history. Biblical plague, global economy shut down, 33 million U.S. unemployed, 75,000 COVID deaths, no toilet paper...

Dow up 400.

Every time they announce millions more unemployed, the stock market skyrockets. Highlighting what is wrong with America. 


We only have to go back to the February highs for a reminder of mass insanity. Back then moronic gamblers could pretend this was a Black Swan event even though they piled into risk at the top. However, now they have no such excuse. That was the COVID melt-up rally, and this is the COVID meltdown rally. The same dumb idea, except this time far more lethal.

Here we see the beloved mega caps are not only green on the year, they have blown through the February top. What took four months last time took five weeks this time:

The S&P 500 has been battling the 50 day moving average (blue line) for four weeks straight. As we see in the lower pane, compared to last year's rally, new highs are minimal:

This is the eye of the storm.

Here we see volatility has declined substantially and yet is coiling far above the lows of February:

Among the other risky sectors leading this rally is Biotech which was the leading sector in August 2015 just prior to the Smash Crash.

Cloud internets are among the speculative stocks going back to vertical mode, as if the new great depression never even happened:

The rest of the world is not impressed with this spectacular show of extreme denial:

The apex of the dumb money bubble is the bet on reflation i.e. gold. These are the people who are ignoring the fact that 3 million+ unemployed per week is over 3x the highest MONTHLY total in 2008.

He is half right, stocks will get cut in half. However, relative to commodities and silver, gold is the most overvalued it's ever been, going back 5,000 years:

WHEN, not IF, mass delusion explodes all over again, the impending retest will be beyond the control of central banks and algos. As the largest cap stocks lead the way down:

"In the broadening top formation five minor reversals are followed by a substantial decline"

"It is a common saying that smart money is out of market in such formation and market is out of control. In its formation, most of the selling is completed in the early stage by big players and the participation is from general public in the later stage."

MAGA will forever be known as the biggest dumb money bubble in human history