Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Belief In Printed Money Dies Hard

Central banks bought this Idiocracy a tree a horse and a rope to see what they would do with it...

Which makes this a con man's paradise. While Trump's base sits around jacking each other off over "Obamagate", Super Dunce is getting set to explode them, for good. 

"Ill-fated" will be the term that is most often used to describe America's first mentally challenged President and his like-minded followers. 

In a hyper optimistic society constantly sniffing glue fumes, no one wants to be the bearer of bad news. So when it comes to predicting the future, today's money-for-hire pundits all take the most fantastical interpretation possible.

Some say that no one can predict the future. This is the standard belief of today's used-car-salesmen investment advisors. Stay the course. Don't panic.

However, as Robert Louis Stevenson famously wrote:

"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences"

This blog was never about "predicting" the future, it was merely about acknowledging the past. Past failures and bad decisions that had systematically winnowed down the future  state to an inevitable banquet of consequences the likes of which we are experiencing right now.

Today's recovery mirage all hangs on Fed Chief Jerome Powell and his magical money printing capabilities. The ability to resurrect an entire economy solely by injecting liquidity into financial markets. The ultimate endgame for Supply Side Voodoo economics.

Quantitative easing is what I call the Jedi Mind Trick for weak minded fools. Hugh Hendry called it Disney Markets. Take your pick. 

This time, the PhD money printers have their work cut out for them to be sure, as the stock market is now inversely correlated with U.S. GDP. Every time jobless claims come out in the multi-millions, stocks rally, due to the well-trained Pavlovian expectation of further dramatic monetary euthanasia.

This past week (Friday), House Democrats passed their latest version of a "go big or go home" fantasy stimulus package. An even bigger version of the last monstrosity. However, the GOP is having none of it. The partisan divide is widening into the election, as both sides smell blood. The Democrats are ALL IN stimulus and cautious re-opening. The GOP is ALL IN unlocking the economy and ramping the economy. They view further stimulus as an extension of lockdown. 

Which means we will get some clusterfucked version of neither scenario. Inadequate stimulus attended by a lackluster re-opening.

Mark Cuban laid it out very well yesterday. He said that the paycheck protection program was a failure. And more middle class stimulus will be needed:

The "big catch" according to his plan is that the money must be spent within 10 days and not used to pay bills:

"It's time to face the fact that PPP didn't work. Great plan, difficult execution. No one's fault. The only thing that will save businesses is consumer demand.  No amount of loans to businesses will save them or jobs if their customers aren't buying."

“We have to get to that point where the White House standard becomes the national standard, I think, in order for consumers to feel safe going out, in order for employers to feel completely safe bringing people back to work,”

On this last point, there is a chasmic divide between the White House and the blue states run by Democratic governors. We could not be further from a "national standard" on re-opening.

Whether Mark Cuban's stimulus gimmicks are dumb ideas or not, the fact is that he is right, short-term loans to small business are pointless if there are no customers.

Through his Shark Tank ventures, Mark Cuban has invested in 85 small businesses so he knows better than anyone that the stimulus programs to date have FAILED. The money is not circulating within the economy. Unlike the economists I cited yesterday, he didn't need to conduct a survey to figure this all out.

We are in the eye of the storm, which is a con man's paradise. All nature of fantasies are being bought and believed. However, the most lethal narrative is "stay the course". The Titanic is sinking to the bottom, those who don't figure this out in time, are never getting out.

For those who say this is like groundhog day, it is, except the stakes keep growing with every passing day.

“We’re not out of ammunition by a long shot,” the Fed chairman told CBS’s “60 Minutes” show in an interview aired Sunday. “We can enlarge our existing lending programs. We can start new lending programs if need be.”

Who to believe, a Trump-installed stooge at the Federal Reserve or Mark Cuban who is watching small businesses die in real time. These are the last days of Supply Side Ponzinomics. Time is running out as once again the Jedi Mind Trick is wearing off.

When this last COVIDIOT rally explodes, everything will implode at the same time

Of all of the fake rallies we've had to contend with, this one is by far the fakest

"Trump needs distractions from his mismanagement of the Covid crisis and his strategy looks straightforward: distract and “flood the zone.” So expect the “Obamagate” trope to recur endlessly and the relentless portrayal of China as an economic enemy. Economists will have to factor poor bilateral relations into their growth forecasts for this year and beyond, because it will impair growth no matter how transparent and cynical the tactic. Markets want a V-shaped rebound but the fiercer the rhetoric, the flatter that recovery curve will be."

Overnight risk is back

"We have to factor in implosion of the world's second largest economy"

"For the win"

Watch Super Dunce pull the plug on his entire gong show. You know it's inevitable.