Monday, February 24, 2020

BTFC: "Buy The Fucking Crash"

Another gap 'n crap like today and the underwear will be mighty stained...

Seven Hindenburg Omens on the NYSE in the past month, warning of the assiduously ignored chasmic bifuraction between the mega cap Tech bubble and the rest of the market:

Overnight crash off of last week's options expiration. What changed? Nothing. The exact same headlines that drove the casino to all time highs last week, imploded it on Monday. Is it news that the virus is spreading, no. And is it news that Bernie Sanders is leading the Democratic race, no.

Meanwhile, gamblers need not worry, because the Casino-Croupier-in-Chief says "BTFD". The virus is not an issue, and he can beat the Commie Sanders no problem. 

What could go wrong?

Let's take a look at some inconvenient facts and data.

"It was the Dow’s biggest point and percentage-point drop since February 2018"


It was the biggest overnight gap since Brexit almost four years ago.

Every sector was down today on 2x volume. There was no place to hide. The "low volatility" safe havens got shellacked along with everything else. NYSE breadth was worse than February 2018 (NYSE A-D), not shown. 

Looking at the Feb. 2018 analog, we see that the S&P is now below the 50 dma which triggered Vixplosion two years ago. The S&P is camped at final support before the 200 dma (red line) which is still a ways away. Notice, comparisons to August 2019 need not apply, as the VIX is already above the level that it hit at the 200 day in August (circled): 

Sadly for bulls, this is not February 2018, as we are reminded by the crash ratio:

Well-conditioned gamblers were not waiting for Trump to tell them to "BTFD". There was no sign of panic in the casino whatsoever:

The casino closed at the lows of the day with the Nasdaq (100) camped at the 50 day:

Banks are at the last line of support:

Energy stocks are bidless in the age of Donny

A preview of the fate that awaits the MAGA Kingdom

The world is in third wave down

In summary, the drugs are wearing off