Wednesday, February 12, 2020

An Inconvenient Paradigm Shift

For those who were five years old in Y2K, this is going to come as quite a shock. For the rest of today's overleveraged amnesiacs who've seen this exact same movie twice, this will come as an even bigger shock, when they realize they were beguiled by Forrest Trump. God's way of proving they would believe the Devil himself just to be great again...

Young people are not waiting for November to watch Trump Make Democracy Implode Again. When the Tesla rally unwinds amid cycle high misallocation of capital, Trump's dumb money super bubble will spontaneously explode. The irony is biblical.


"I think we took a wrong turn back there"





The rise of Tesla at this late stage was no coincidence. It was harbinger of a momentous economic paradigm shift taking place. Out with the old in with the new...



Any questions?






It appears that the generation that "never votes" has had enough of rigged elections and are taking matters into their own hands. And who could blame them, having been trapped in an old age home with a bunch of incontinent geezers incapable of accepting the inconvenient truth in any direction. Are Millenials ready to lead? Of course not. Who the hell raised these kids anyways? It's called bad parenting when one generation is imploding from self-inflicted consumption overdose and the next one coming along has non-existent life skills. Their parents too busy living vicariously through their own children to raise them properly.

Sermon over. What does this have to do with the mega explosion of Trump Casino? 

EVERYTHING it turns out:

Last week:



This week:


"More than 50 campuses — including Harvard, Boston College, Boston University, Tufts, MIT, Brandeis, Clark, and Worcester Polytechnic — will participate in Fossil Fuel Divestment Day."

"Institutions divesting from fossil fuels include over 1,000 organizations, representing nearly $14 trillion".


Which is why Millenials are now moving markets.

In size:




Bringing options trading volumes to a new record:



"Other than Tesla, recent growth in options volumes has also been driven by a pickup in trading big tech stocks including Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft"


What happens when these rented lottery tickets expire en masse? What happens is that the market makers who've been accumulating the underlying stocks as a (delta) hedge, dump these most active dollar volume stocks back onto the Nasdaq in record size. Which is why Mondays have been a shit show recently, as weekly opex is Friday.

And the data proves it:






This is the third Millenial bubble in this two year market top:





But don't give the Millenials all of the credit, they couldn't do this without Trump:




"As big endowment funds face mounting pressure to reduce their exposure to the fossil fuel industry, there’s one thing making their decision easier: the energy sector’s underperformance."

“I’m done with fossil fuels ... they’re just done. We’re starting to see divestment all over the world,” Jim Cramer said Jan. 31 on “Squawk Box.” “You’re seeing divestiture by a lot of different funds ... we’re in the death knell phase,” 


Trump vastly accelerated the death knell of Big Oil:







Just don't assume King Donny is a lock for November.

That is a record-leveraged fool's bet right now. When the MAGA Clean Energy rally unwinds amid cycle high margin calls, the underwear will be mighty stained.