Thursday, February 20, 2020

Bounding Down The Road To Perdition

In retrospect, the age of Trump will be seen as an age of unprecedented idiocy and buffoonery. A late stage Roman Circus run by and for a court of arrogant jokers and fools lying to themselves constantly, while the world fell apart in real-time...






Trump has been pardoning all manner of criminals this week, softening us up for what comes next - the pardoning of self-proclaimed dirty trickster Roger Stone. If you haven't already watched "Get Me Roger Stone" on Netflix, I highly recommend it. This Nixon-acolyte has been at the heart of GOP chicanery for forty years now. He and Paul Manafort essentially invented the Political Action Committee (PAC) to bypass campaign finance laws. And they took character assassination to a whole new level.

Continuing the theme, Trump will be pardoning Charles Manson by this time next week.

All of this arrogant buffoonery is part and parcel of a late stage empire sagging under the weight of its own past. Totally unable to find a path to the future, still enraptured by the glorious past. A generation incapable of realizing it's over. Why can't the Democrats find a viable candidate under the age of 100? One that people know and trust? What does it say about GenX, that there isn't anyone in the 50-something age range with the will and gravitas to lead? First off, we know that the exigencies of the day require finding someone willing to concoct a fantasy that has absolutely no basis in reality, carry that forward through to the general election and then pivot 180 degrees back towards the moribund status quo. Because no real change is allowed in the old age home. Alternatively, find a serial con man who will commandeer a lathered up mob on Twitter while all of his false promises turn to crap in real-time.

Which, gets me to the point of this post: Reality and the truth don't care what fake promises are made by con men. The willing mob cares, just not reality. Which is how we find ourselves at this parlous juncture where every aspect of Trump's Promised NeverNever Land is turning to shite in real-time, while the masses at large still believe, it's working.

The power of suggestion.

Take climate change as an example. Trump promised that he would make the U.S. energy independent, so he threw open the Federal lands to fracking. This created the second surge in over-investment in the past decade, wholly offsetting OPEC's 2016 supply-reduction agreement, leading to another downleg in prices. 

The law of unintended consequences. More unfettered supply meant more competition, more price-taking action, and hence less control over price. Leading to a second wave of insolvency for frackers.

In addition, Trump removed the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement. Hence, a large group of U.S. University students took matters into their own hands and demanded divestment by college endowment funds in big oil. Meanwhile, the ESG (Environmental, Social Governance) sustainable investing theme skyrocketed as private citizens voted with their own dollars. The next thing you know, the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, announced in January of this year that they are divesting from fossil fuels. All of which has led to a mass exodus out of Big Oil.




Again, all the unintended consequences of arrogant buffoons who believed that they could control the world on Twitter. When all they could control was the colossal misallocation of capital of their own useful base.

Now, Bill Gates comes out and proclaims that divestment will not affect climate change. Which means that the world's richest man doesn't understand basic economics. The inevitable result of being wholly dependent upon central banks for his inflated wealth. A billionaire welfare queen who believes that printed money is the secret to effortless wealth.

Quite the contrary, Econ 101 suggests that lower investment will shift the supply curve to the left, meaning lower output at every level of price. Imagine if there was NO investment in fossil fuels, how much would be produced under that scenario at any price? None.

Add in oil speculators and investors sitting on a decade of losses. Oil nations running record deficits. A late stage global economy teetering on mega collapse. And of course Trump's old age home massively leveraged to delusion.

It's all quite a recipe for carbon collapse on a biblical scale.

And what did any poltical candidate have to do to make it happen?

Just lie constantly. And make sure no one bolted from the casino ahead of time.