Monday, April 13, 2020

The American Delusion

The Federal Reserve has been propping up the rich for over a decade straight. Why? To keep the American delusion alive after the American dream exploded in 2008...

Shocking I know, but this mega bailout is not for the middle class. The middle class isn't getting any stimulus, they are getting a stipend to keep looting at bay for a few more days. 

The number of loopholes and exceptions in these stimulus gimmicks has kept the vast majority of funds from flowing to where they are needed the most. This is all just another mega bailout for billionaires while the middle class goes under the bus. Which is why policy-makers are running out of borrowed time with these gimmicks.

Let's not forget that Trump's Potemkin economy was the greatest con job in U.S. history BEFORE the Coronavirus. Record low interest rates and 5% borrowed GDP provided the illusion of prosperity. ALL of the economic dry powder was squandered to rig the election. 

Those who are now saying THIS is the end of the American Dream have been the sole beneficiaries of non-stop Fed bailouts since the real American Dream imploded years and decades ago. From a middle class perspective this is only the latest false promise, by no means the first.

And those Trump acolytes who want to pretend that Coronavirus unexpectedly ended their gangbusters party will be viewed as delusional morons in the fullness of time. Stoned on MAGA glue fumes. Trapped in human history's biggest circle jerk.

Speaking of American delusion, believe it or not, the rest of the world is in even more dire straits. The IMF and World Bank are now deluged with bailout requests, and yet have only a fraction of the resources to meet them.

As I said in my last post, THIS is nothing like 2008. Some of us will recall that it was China's mega stimulus in 2008/2009 that pulled the entire world out of recession. Massive infrastructure projects AND massive demand for commodities, especially oil. China GDP never dipped below 10% in that timeframe. Yes you read that right. Now, China is expected to potentially record ZERO GDP growth for 2020. On this chart below, I penciled in 1% because I am such an optimist.

I think we all see where I'm going with this - this is all just more inconvenient reality that was somehow left out of Wall Street price projections.

Projections which have the veracity of a weekly astrology prediction, provided by pundits who will be selling used cars again when this charade is all over.

What happens to commodity producers and Emerging Markets when crude oil meets the zero bound? 

" supply is to be cut by (sort of) 10 million barrels per day (bpd) whilst global demand has fallen by around 30 million bpd. That is really all anyone needs to know and is the key reason why oil prices are likely to continue to test the downside of recent lows and to surpass them over time. Terrible though these raw figures look, the overall deal itself is much worse the more that it is examined in depth, as it is below..."

Fake reflationists are in for a hard meeting with reality:

In summary, the Fed doesn't have control over the entire world, they have the delusion of control. 

The American Dream is an exploded myth. And now the well-cultivated American delusion that supplanted it is running low on glue fumes.

It's only a matter of time before the people realize these bailouts are NOT for them.

And then all hell will break loose.