Friday, April 3, 2020

Buried By Deniald Trump

This is the most deflationary event in world history, and yet today's gamblers STILL expect inflation - testament to the well-conditioned LETHAL belief in the powers of central bank alchemy...

The amount of fantasy delusion taking place right now with regards to the health crisis and the financial crisis is asinine even by Trumptopian standards:

As of this week, the U.S. is facing the worst case scenario for the Coronavirus. But don't take my word for it:

"More than 12,000 people have died from COVID-19 in Italy, where the healthcare system has been massively overwhelmed. For weeks, the president and other top US officials downplayed the threat the virus posed and insisted it had been or would be contained."

Trump on Tuesday said he knew from the start that the US's coronavirus outbreak "could be horrible," but repeatedly downplayed the threat because he wanted to stay positive and be a "cheerleader" for the country."

This is the problem with the MAGA Kingdom - all cheerleaders and no coaches.

Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci - who can't understand why there is STILL not a nationwide lockdown, has been receiving death threats from Trump's Idiocracy. Which further sums things up right now in Dumbfuckistan - a beloved cheerleader for president and death threats for anyone who dares tell the truth.

Good luck surviving in this dystopian Disney World.

On the financial markets side, denial is just as bad or even worse. Amid the worst layoffs in U.S. history, today's gamblers are still being urged to buy the depression. Because as we know, for every buyer there is a seller:

"Obviously selling is big among traders, institutions, computer algorithms ... but the one stabilizing factor in this market has been individual investors," he tells Axios.

"That has never been true before, and it’s a very unique aspect of this downturn."

Thus far, "U.S. equities continue to run in lockstep with the day-to-day moves of late September/October 2008," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas says in a note.

After October 2008, stocks fell for another four months, piling up 40% of losses before the recently ended bull market began in March 2009."

"Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill"

This is uniquely self-destructive positioning for a uniquely brutal collapse:

Trump bullshit fueled the largest one day oil rally in history yesterday. However, the rally was solely based upon delusion.

OPEC called an emergency meeting for this Monday, and the results could final implode global markets:

"The current optimism of analysts and the media that an end to the ongoing OPEC+ oil price spat is near is entirely unjustified"

The tweet by Trump claiming that MBS and Putin would agree to a 10+ million bpd production cut shows not only his overestimation of his own power over the two countries, but also shows a lack of knowledge about the underlying market fundamentals and the current demand destruction worldwide"

As we see U.S. deflation is moving in lockstep with crude oil:

The leading sector since the new Fed QE was launched has been the gold miners. These stocks bottomed one week ahead of the rest of the market and now show a clear three wave retracement. Gold stocks give us a good insight into the social mood hopium surrounding this mega stimulus bailout. Gold hoarders are at the epicenter of denial, evincing the strongest belief in Fed powers to magically overcome record deflation.

This next wave down will disabuse them of that belief:

Another set of stocks that has outperformed is the entire video game sector and related stocks. These stocks are the perceived beneficiaries of the new staycation craze sweeping the planet:

As I said recently, this next leg down will see the MAGA cap Tech (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon) finally get sold en masse.

Filled underwear is a necessary and sufficient condition for reaching a tradeable bottom.

In the words of Trump, this is going to be a horrific next few weeks. And who would know better than the cheerleader who was saying this was all a hoax just a few weeks ago?

The current death total for the U.S. is only slightly higher than the DAILY death toll will be in three weeks:

WP: Current Models Suggest Daily Death Toll Peaks at 4,400 Per Day By April 21st