Sunday, April 5, 2020

Coronavirus Saved The Planet

From the hairless monkeys...

"It was all going so well..."

We all have skin in this game now. Everyone knows someone who is at risk from this virus. I'm not playing down the impending grief and dislocation. Only to say that this side of a meteor strike or nuclear annihilation this was probably the least lethal way to stop the self-destructing hairless monkey from destroying the planet. 

History will say that the MAGA Kingdom was not the beginning of our problems, it was the end. This entire way of life has been decaying for decades, notwithstanding rampant denial. MAGA was the apex of buffoonishly denialistic behaviours imploded at peak idiocy. Specifically in the realms of health, economics, and environment. Reckless irresponsibility in every direction. Now, the zombies are trapped. The old age home was forced to make the Faustian choice between their money and their life. No surprise, they threw the economy under the bus. After all, most of them don't need jobs and healthcare, they already have "entitlements" AND tax cuts. All paid for by future generations. 

From ancient Rome to now what has changed? Nothing. The human species is just as much slave to the same self-destructing urges and vanities that imploded every other civilization. Notwithstanding major advances in science and technology this species is wholly incapable of looking itself in the mirror and realizing it's falling into the same trap that doomed everyone else. 

In this species, where you find arrogance, you find ignorance in equal measure. It grows and grows and next thing you know Donald Trump is president and the controlling demographic is a corporate Idiocracy. 

The hairless monkey has gained not a whit of wisdom over two thousand years. Today's pundits are mental midgets standing on the shoulders of giants. The MAGA Kingdom walked into this ambush in the least prepared fashion possible - a decaying and collapsing healthcare system, a morbidly obese disease-ridden populace, and of course an economy maximum leveraged to free money. All run by a circus clown.

Sealed by a chorus of "No one saw it coming", when in fact this whole debacle was running on MAGA glue fumes. 

America's signature boom and bust roller coaster ride just exploded spectacularly in mid-air. Now the country is going from pure capitalism to pure communism overnight. Bailouts for everyone. The Bernie Sanders policies that were deemed "too socialist" a mere six weeks ago have now been eclipsed 10x by panic bailouts that make Russia seem capitalist by comparison.

No surprise, anarchy is rising as food banks become overwhelmed and looters raid closed shops. What we see now is only the tip of the ice berg. Trump has already ordered troops up to New York City, a preview of what is coming nationwide. The Stephen King book/movie "The Running Man" was eerily predictive:

"By 2017, after a worldwide economic collapse, the United States has become a totalitarian police state, censoring all cultural activity. The U.S. government pacifies the populace by broadcasting game shows where convicted criminals fight for their lives, including the gladiator-style The Running Man, hosted by the ruthless Damon Killian [Richard Dawson], where "runners" attempt to evade "stalkers", armed mercenaries, around a large arena, and near-certain death for a chance to be pardoned by the state."

Of course Trump is today's Richard Dawson character, given his extensive credentials as a game show host.

Interesting times indeed.

From an investing perspective, blind optimism is now lethal. Unquestioned Kool-aid guzzling that worked so well for over a decade straight now has a death grip on its adherents.

The next major step in this debacle is the implosion of credit markets. Most appear to believe that the Fed's Super Bazooka saved the corporate debt market. Here is an example of the typical cluelessness compliments of Zerohedge:

ZH: Don't Fight The Fed

"We explained on Thursday, March 19 in ""The Bond Market Is Broken" And Only Fed Buying Bonds Can Fix It"

Unfortunately for that delusion, the Fed didn't fix the bond market, all they did was trigger a massive short covering rally that took back one week of losses:

Here is what it took to generate that meager rally above:

This is the two week change in the Fed balance sheet

A balance sheet expansion that succeeded in getting the S&P casino to seven months overbought, and now rolling over:

Which sets up a failed retest that just got bought with both hands by a complacent populace: