Thursday, September 17, 2020

This Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble Is Set To Explode.

Rigged markets and rigged elections. It's Trump's world, we just live in it...

This week, Scientific American FINALLY got tired of idiots posing as scientists and took a stand on the part of inconvenient reality against denialistic fantasy. Too little too late, but a welcome endorsement of rationality nonetheless. 

"While the publication had noted President Trump's disdain for science -- calling it "frightening" -- it did not endorse Hillary Clinton against him in 2016.

"The evidence and the science show that Donald Trump has badly damaged the U.S. and its people -- because he rejects evidence and science," they wrote"

"What's your belief?
"The rejection of science and evidence"
"You got my vote"

The irony is that they don't know what that means. It means that history will serve them up with fava beans and a nice Chianti. One should never assume that everyone else is as dumb as they are, lest they get historically lampooned. David Stockman is just the latest geezer to squander his credibility inveighing on issues far beyond his rapidly sunsetting lucidity. Stockman deftly sidesteps the weight of evidence to data mine a few sugar coated anecdotes of his own - the standard denialistic formula. His screed is typical of the entire Trump movement - aged denialists who see the world imploding around them and therefore need to pretend it has nothing to do with their failed way of life. What to do but invent a specious narrative and hope it sticks to the next generation inheriting their epic clusterfuck. History says it won't work. These people are merely flushing their credibility down the historical toilet, instead of taking any form of responsibility. Because why start now? Their entire ideology is predicated upon rational self-interest. Contrary to Stockman's assertion, Mother Nature IS angry, and the Trump carbon tax is now being collected, no amount of data mined sophistry will change that fact.

And sadly for these exact same denialists, all assiduously ignored evidence indicates that their most beloved MAGA Kingdom is about to explode.

As I showed last week, options related hangover due to record leveraged speculation has skewed all positive returns towards earlier in the week and decided weakness Thursday through Monday as options expire. This week happens to be monthly options expiration which could compound the potential dislocation:

“If we assume that retail is long a lot of these September expiring calls in stocks like Apple and Tesla and the market continues to move lower, due to the aftermath of the Fed, market makers unwind their hedges against those long calls. In theory, that could exacerbate the move lower"

In addition, this coming week is the period between the Jewish High Holidays which tends to be one of the weakest trading periods of the year. This year, the holidays happen to be in September which is statistically the weakest month of the year.

In other words, a leveraged Tech bubble is unwinding during the seasonally weakest week and month of 2020. What could go wrong?

So far, there has been mass complacency, despite the fact that the 50 day moving average is getting pounded relentlessly on both the S&P and the Nasdaq.

Volatility is only starting to awaken from its central bank induced coma - as of mid-day Thursday the Nasdaq is back below the 50 day moving average.

The order of the day remains "BTFD"

Nevertheless, we are now seeing the exact same action we saw in February/March, the casino stages a rally during the middle of the day and then rolls over at the close. Bear market action.

Yesterday, Wall Street launched the most expensive IPO of this entire Ponzi cycle and then it STILL doubled after the open. At the close it was trading 100 x sales, making it the most expensive stock in the entire market.

Four years from Trump's September 2016 prediction, we stand at the absolute pinnacle of Trump's big, fat, ugly bubble.

"Following its massive first-day gains, Snowflake sports a truly epic valuation -- even by the current standards of high-growth software and cloud services firms"

Oil is staging a weak bounce prior to the next leg lower:

What I see happening over the next hours and days, is a full scale global synchronized RISK OFF, for the first time since March. I also predict that Disney markets can't handle this impending Black Swan event known as "Sell":

As always, the burden of truth remains on those of us who tell the truth. Not on today's rampant pump and dumpers who are in the business of creating ever larger asset bubbles. Here you have a Wall Street brokerage house further amplifying Dave Portnoy's own pump and dump of a stock that he owns in the tens of millions:

Buckle up, because this big, fat, ugly bubble is set to explode.