IT'S OVER. FYI.

The great reckoning has arrived. Those who don't see it coming were not meant to see it coming. MAGA is the biggest dumb money bubble in human history...

FAR too much time has been wasted on this failed way of life. For those drones who followed it to their logical conclusion we can only feel sorry for them. This combination of COVID hoax, global depression, and grapes of wrath anarchy is not the buying opportunity it appears to be. It's human history's biggest dumb money bubble without any question. 

For me personally, I am 100% zen. As far as I am concerned righteous reality has returned with a biblical vengeance. Martin Luther King famously declared that the "arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice". Long indeed. Many of today's pundits see parallels with 1968 the year King was assassinated: An eerily similar global virus, extreme racial tensions, and of course plenty of rioting. And my birth year, let's not forget that. At that time, the country lurched to the right to elect Richard Nixon. I don't see that happening this time around.

This time around, the Republicons are on the ropes grasping their failed ideologies. History will say that Nixon was the beginning of the fraud, and Trump was the end of the fraud. Book-ended criminals. Nixon, to his downfall, kept recorded tapes of himself fully admitting Watergate malfeasance. Like Trump, he enjoyed the sound of his own voice. Trump has incriminated himself over and over again. Whereas Biden isn't allowed any pussy whatsoever - he is married after all - Trump's evangelical base allows him to grab as much pussy as he wants. I've decided I'm evangelical now. I haven't told my wife yet, because she will kill me without hesitation.

In other words, it's quite a double standard that we've become FAR to used to, thanks to the rabid right. So much so that the alt-left is prepared to pass on an imperfect candidate, and hand re-election back to Super Dunce, while they wait for Mrs. right to never appear. There are enough fucking morons to go around. The Anti-Christ-in-Chief gained props from his acolyte base yesterday when he posed in front of a Washington church holding a bible. It's the same type of meaningless spectacle they've built their entire lives upon. So of course they loved it. I was surprised he didn't explode on the spot. History will say that his base were the last ones to know this was all ending extraordinarily badly. What they perceive as a new beginning happens to be the end of their entire Faustian way of life. The only question from an historical perspective will be, how many demented hillbillies were there at that time?

Global central banks have now administered lethal doses of monetary euthanasia. So much so that global asset prices are now heading in the opposite direction of global GDP for the first time ever. It's the largest misallocation of capital in human history. Today's masses are now fully convinced that printed money is the secret to effortless wealth and far more important than jobs, industries, and economic output. According to these people, economic output could fall to zero and it would make no difference to asset prices. As of this week, over 40 million (27%) of U.S. jobs have been lost and an estimated HALF of all small businesses.


Globally the picture is as bad or worse. And yet today's economists still see a "v-shaped" recovery. 

Small investors always rush into stocks in droves at the end of bull markets, and this time is no exception. This is the second COVIDIOT top in three months, and yet this one is even frothier and more lethal than the last one. This time gamblers are crowded into the most speculative and over-owned Tech stocks. At the last top, most sectors made new highs. This time it's Tech and Biotech alone making new highs.

Gambling through a pandemic has now become a widespread preoccupation:

"A global pandemic has thrown the world’s economy into a terrifying tailspin. The stock market’s gyrations, which often seem wholly disconnected from the actual economy, are more unpredictable than ever — and no less an investment wizard than Warren Buffet says his fund remains on the sidelines because “we don’t see anything that attractive” to buy. Yet somehow an app designed to encourage inexperienced young Main Streeters to play the market, and that has been dogged by reliability issues, is a smash hit, bolstered by the smartest Silicon Valley investors."

Any questions?

Add in dumb money index allocations, fund managers chasing performance, and momentum-chasing algos to create the largest dumb money bubble in human history.

Sadly, the corporate simulation of everything is ending. Badly. Now what to do, live life, what's that? Life outside of spectacle, where to begin. If you think about these social media giants that dominate the stock market, what are they dispensing other than personal reality TV shows, laced with ad-sponsored disinformation. While cable TV can boast 2,000 channels of mindless crap, Facebook has a million times that amount of bullshit. Zuckerborg was on the hot seat this week for giving license to Trumptopian fraud. Unfortunately, what regulators don't understand is that enabling disinformation IS the Facebook model. And what can Google say when their entire business is ad-sponsored bullshit. Sure they have profitless side ventures, but 99% of their revenue is paid disinformation. When Morgan Stanley installed their CFO at Google, the corporate motto changed from "do no harm" to "never miss the quarter again".

History will say that between Faux News and Facebook, America's last business model was a massive river of bullshit. That got bought with both hands. Right before the total collapse.

No one saw it coming. Mass bullshit had substituted for everything real. 

FOMA: Fear Of Missing Anarchy

Blogging in the apocalypse. Where to begin...

I was planning to call this post: THIS is Running Man, whereby the Game-Show-Host-in-Chief will now impose martial law to save the day. But, he beat me to it...

Trump's new election pivot is to become the "law and disorder" president. He needed a new schtick after his China/Hong Kong implosion scheme was hijacked by mass protests. He is now threatening to bring in the U.S. military to quell the protests. 

Since the COVID outbreak we have witnessed the wholesale collapse of civil liberties. First featuring a fiat-ordered shutdown, and now featuring nightly curfews. Libertarians are going batshit crazy right now. After all, their own beloved saviour will be the one who completes the authoritarian takeover of the United States. They better than anyone know that the U.S. military was never intended to police the domestic populace. This would be an unprecedented foray into Third World martial law, as I predicted a few months ago.

Meanwhile, Trump just threw Hong Kong under the bus because his threats of military force are precisely what the Hong Kong security bill was threatening last week. No sooner had the high and mighty EU, UK, and Canadian governments criticized China for abuse of power, than Trump does the exact same thing only days later. Do you think these sackless puppet governments will ever criticize Trump? No way. Just as they all pander to Saudi Arabia, they have no problem ignoring civil rights when there is real money on the line. 

"Throughout the protests in Hong Kong last year, the US was consistent in its support of people's right to take to the streets and have their voice heard, and that sporadic violence or illegality did not undermine the core demands or legitimacy of the movement.

Facing widespread unrest and public anger at home in the wake of the death of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, at the hands of a police officer in Minneapolis, the reaction from US President Donald Trump appeared markedly different."

It was a response that might not have appeared out of place on the pages of China's own government-controlled newspapers"


The arsenal of hypocrisy is on wide open display. Goodbye Hong Kong, we hardly knew ya.

Jim Cramer who has to find something to say every day to explain away mass insanity, informed us yesterday that the market remains bid because Wall Street has no conscience. All they care about is making money. 

No shit.

"At the end of the day, the market has no conscience. Investors are simply trying to make money, and that's why they're crowding into the stay-at-home economy stocks" 

"the stay-at-home economy just got a major extension for many investors [and] right or wrong, thoughtless or cerebral, it's worth exploiting."


Of course Wall Street's lack of empathy for protest movements is not any stretch of imagination. However, believing that Hong Kong doesn't matter, China trade tensions don't matter, and indeed U.S. rioting is more reason to buy "stay at home" stocks, is where things get a tad psychopathic. After all, this entire rally has been touted over and over again as the "economic re-opening" rally. So now we are to believe that martial law is the latest catalyst for rally?

Sure.

As true P/E infinity would suggest, there is no bullish case anymore. There are only weak bears getting crushed by momentum algos fed by monetary euthanasia. A big fat ugly bubble further fueled by stay at home speculators rushing into the junkiest stocks using their stimulus money.

It all makes perfect nonsense.

Here we see the stay-at-home bubble going parabolic:

Cyclicals are stalled at a familiar level:

The Dow just closed above the 200 day, the last senior index to do so:

Here are a few of the recent new highs on Cramer's Anarchy 2020 stock list:

Check out Lululemon

Tesla has a double top similar to February. Shorts once again getting annihilated.

Momo Tech looking similar to the last top:

But the real winners this week are gun stocks

Outside is America

The MAGA Kingdom Is Burning

Trump's Disneytopian bonfire of the sanities is reaching new heights of incendiary combustion. The old age home is trapped and there is no way out...

Let's see, my 2020 predictions were for mega crash and rioting. So far, so bad.

Cutting through the CNN and Faux News 24 hour bullshit cycle, this protest-turned-riot exposes America's profound wealth inequality. According to the CIA factbook, the U.S. has a gini (inequality) coefficient between Mozambique and Cameroon. Essentially a DEEP Third World level of inequality.

And the right Banana Republican dictator for the job.

Trump was all set to level sanctions on China and Hong Kong when these weekend riots blew up his plans. Let's see, Cuba, Russia, Iran, Turkey, North Korea, now China and Hong Kong. Those countries that are NOT on the sanctions list have either been invaded already or are America's vassal states - I am referring of course to Europe, UK, and Canada. Fully complicit in enabling America's arsenal of hypocrisy. Unfortunately, just when America was about to "fix" the wayward factory slaves with sanctions and starvation, all of HER lies were exposed for the entire world to see. No amount of lamestream bullshit could hide the ugly reality of it all. 

Globally, the U.S. and her puppet allies have done far more damage than ALL other countries combined, in the name of "improving" the corporate bottom line.

I'm just saying what history will say about this biblical debauchery that we have the privilege of experiencing in real-time. 

AND, the MAGA Kingdom of course is the Disneytopian fantasy to end this entire era. Believed by a brainwashed Twitter Borg stoned on the glue fumes of ancient mythology and total fucking bullshit. Now culminating in a Potemkin economy and a world of false promises foisted on future generations. What to do? Blame the youth for protesting against their inherited fate. Ungrateful bastards.

History will call the Baby Boomers the Disney generation. Full stop. If I had to start my blog all over again by way of defining this MAGA era, I would call it the "steaming pile of dog shit". Because that is exactly what this farce is turning into.

Remember, had this generation not squandered everything including their own health, then this COVID hoax would have passed unnoticed. Much as the Hong Kong flu did in 1968.

But they panicked. Because Mother Nature had them between a rock and a hard place. 

But here is where it gets interesting. Imagine a situation in which the anarchists who are infiltrating the protests are EXPECTED to wear a mask covering their face. Because if they didn't they would be deemed "irresponsible". Do you see a problem with that?

In other words, if you go down the street wearing the skull and cross bones on a mask on your way to full scale anarchy, you will attract less attention than walking down the street with your face fully uncovered.

What could go wrong? Bank robbers can stand in line at the bank along with everyone else. 

Again, this is not Idiocracy, this is Super Idiocracy.

Getting back to Trump Casino, the S&P futures are now trending higher in direct relation to meltdown. The more the economy implodes, the more gamblers anticipate further dramatic expansion of monetary euthanasia. Which is why the P/E ratio is now infinity.

Whoa, step back. I was told the P/E ratio is 21.50. How do you get infinity? 

The P/E ratio is merely Wall Street's magic 8 ball derived metric for deciding whether or not stocks are overvalued. As it turns out, stocks are NEVER overvalued, interestingly. The ratio is current price divided by imaginary forward earnings. Which means in today's terms it's central bank Kool-aid divided by 1930s depression. Which gets us precisely to 21.50. That, and a frontal lobotomy.

Anytime anyone throws out a P/E ratio under these circumstances, it's because they are a confirmed psychopath. At best , there is right now only fantasy and fiction behind these "fundamentals". At worst, there is conflict of interest.

As I write Sunday night, Hong Kong is LEADING the entire world higher as Trump's promise to revoke their all-important special status on Friday was fortunately overshadowed by rioting and looting and end times prophecy coming true in real-time. 

Meaning, Donny's gaze has shifted from "CHINA" to his own fucked up backyard. Who to blame now? Joe Biden's son? In Trump's world if you're white and plead guilty (Mike Flynn), you receive a get out of jail free card. If you're black, you're convicted when you leave your house. 

This is all making perfect sense in the context of a late stage global empire collapsing like a cheap tent. Clearing the way for reality to once again fill the void of fear.

What will happen in Disney markets this week? No idea. Just realize that when Wall Street's fantasy P/E ratio reaches its maximum extreme divergence between central bank fantasy and economic reality, the crash back to reality will be the most extreme financial event of our lifetimes. Making March look like a picnic.

When Bernankenstein applied MAXIMUM monetary stimulus in October 2008 he figured he had put a bottom in the market. However, when his rally stalled and imploded, he was only off by 5 months and -40% (S&P). I've noticed that Jay Powell put in a call to his mentor in March and it appears that neither one of them have a very good memory.

DENIAL IS LETHAL

For the past decade, being an idiot has paid handsomely. The insanity continued just long enough to convince everyone that ignorance is bliss. Now, unfortunately, being a denialistic fool is no longer an asset, it is mass burial. Because hard to believe but in an Idiocracy there is no strength in numbers. Still, it was a good run with an inevitable ending...

Those who follow Trump to his logical denouement, won't make the return trip. Trump is the past and the past is failure. MAGA is legacy empire recycled for nostalgia sake one more time. But they say: "Trump ran on a platform of neo-isolationism". No he didn't, he is a demagogue who ran on a platform of opportunism and mob mind control. He demanded MORE power than any prior president in U.S. history so he could command and control the entire world on Twitter. Trump is everything that failed about the past - ignorance, arrogance, greed, gluttony, and desecration. Desecrationism is over. And now Mother Nature demands the pound of flesh that is owed, and she will get it, in size. Trump's aged base are between a rock and a hard place: Health versus wealth. However in their minds they are entitled to both.

Which fully explains why the stock market is now held aloft by the stay at home virtual economy bubble, while the real economy implodes in real time. It's the "we can have our cake and eat it too" obligatory delusion. In addition they can surely implode the Chinese while China's imported goods continue to flow to shelves at Walmart uninterrupted.

This week we learned that the "Payroll Protection Program" was a bust.

"...Data from the Small Business Administration shows net weekly PPP lending has actually been negative since mid-May, as fewer firms applied for loans, and some borrowers returned funds"

The money left unborrowed and unspent under the program - represents a lost opportunity. Businesses were supposed to use it to retain workers, but may have been laying them off instead of tapping the money.

Some 38.6 million people have filed for unemployment insurance since the crisis began, and the unemployment rate is expected to near or surpass the 25% record reached in the Great Depression."

Last week, Mitch McConnell was adamant that there would be no more stimulus, because the GOP views stimulus programs to be hindering the re-opening of the economy. However, this week McConnell said more stimulus is likely. Blogging under these conditions of continuous bullshit is challenging at best. The GOP is now in a very difficult situation ahead of the election. More stimulus will only slow the economic re-opening and reduce the economic multiplier. If people are fat and happy at home ordering everything on Amazon they are less likely to go back to work. Whereas a large reduction in stimulus at this point will leave many families exposed to a collapse in incomes. So policy-makers can either pay people to stay at home or they can motivate them to scrounge for jobs that may no longer exist. Either way the economy implodes. However, the stimulus at least gives people a fake sense of security, which is all the Republicans need between now and November. This being an existential election on all sides.

From an economic standpoint, the additional stimulus will merely give a false sense of comfort while allowing wholesale carnage to take place in the background. One by one companies are now going bankrupt quietly but steadily. The government can't bailout everyone at the same time and no amount of Fed loans are going to make a difference. As we see above, the PPP small business loan money was not even fully deployed. There is too much risk and economic uncertainty to be taking on more debt under these perilous conditions. Even debt that came with an escape clause was deemed too risky:

For their part, many large companies have already drawn down their credit lines and are now downsizing in order to survive. The dead money sectors of the economy are (mall) retail, autos, travel, entertainment, financials, energy and real estate. Which from an investment standpoint leaves Utilities, toilet paper stocks, big pharma/biotech, Lockheed Martin & Co, and of course the Super Tech bubble. All of which are overvalued.

This combined fiscal and monetary election rigging voodoo is lethal to anyone who places their full faith and credit in it. Coronavirus has brought full Japanification to the entire planet. Whereas previously printed money was used to simulate stock market prosperity, now printed money is being used as a proxy for jobs and incomes. When GDP hits zero, economists will be shocked at what they have fabricated. A 100% virtual economy, existing in denialistic fantasy alone.

Today marked another 2 million plus initial unemployment claims, meaning new layoffs, however economists highlighted the reduction in continuing unemployment claims as evidence of economic recovery. Picture the entire U.S. economy having been shutdown for two months and then re-opening last week ahead of Memorial Day. How many people would you predict were called back to work?

Three quarters? Half?

Wrong: 16%: This is the best indicator we have for current period REAL GDP or lack thereof:

“The paradox of thrift is a negative feedback loop. The more people save, the less they spend; the less they spend, the worse the recession gets; the worse the recession gets the more they save.”


This is the savings rate going back 60 years:

As I've said, when the middle class bailout arrives, everyone is going to be forced to fit their lifestyle inside an average income plus whatever savings they have left and whatever income they can eke out of the obliterated economy. Everything else is on the table now.

I for one am not worried about the future. We've finally turned the corner to start worrying about this planet and people rather than corporate profit. It's been a long time in coming and an exorbitant cost. However, the final tally is far from over. Those who can't make the adjustment from being loyal corporate drone to human being, will find this next phase difficult to say the least.

Eventually the debts will get inflated away and a new currency paradigm will evolve. The dollar's exploding liabilities are far too onerous to ever be repaid. The same is true for most other global fiat currencies. However, in the deflationary phase, currency destruction can take a long time. Just ask the Japanese who now have debt at 238% of GDP. More than double the U.S. figure.

Facing the future is not easy, but this decrepit society has been avoiding reality for too long already. Why can't we all be Japan for the next 30 years? Because Japan was in deflation when the rest of the world was in expansion. Japan benefited from exports to the U.S. and China. The entire world can't all export their way to prosperity in a global depression. Quite the contrary. 

Denial and delusion got us this far, but it will be excess baggage for the rest of the journey. Under the new paradigm, less is more. From now on being a denialistic idiot is no longer an asset, it is now a colossal liability.

On Wednesday this week, the Trump Administration warned that passing the proposed Hong Kong Security law would bring hard consequences. Today (Thursday), China passed the new law by a 100% majority.  When 2.1 new layoffs were announced, the Dow gapped up 200 points at today's open. Which has been the exact same pattern for six weeks - a Dow rally every time jobless claims rise. Now featuring 40 million souls unemployed.

Trump announced that consequences will be unleashed sometime Friday. Overnight, China announced that once Trump does whatever he is going to do, they are going to retaliate. Which I take as meaning this weekend.

We have now achieved Super Idiocracy. Implode at your own risk.

The MAGA Staycation From Reality Is Ending

What comes next is called "Shanghai Surprise". What happens when gamblers bid up their own stocks while pretending to be wealthy...

The confluence of risks that attended the Corona top led to the fastest and most violent crash from all time highs. This one will make that one look like a picnic. Having led the market since the 2016 election, The MAGA stocks are finally imploding...

Overnight tonight (Thursday in Hong Kong), the Chinese congress is widely expected to pass the new controversial Hong Kong security bill essentially eliminating Hong Kong's special status from a civil rights perspective. A move that will very likely prompt the U.S. to do the same, from a trade perspective. 

Which would be the "nuclear" option:

"The Trump administration is considering imposing the same tariffs on exports from Hong Kong that it puts on goods from mainland China, according to officials with knowledge of the discussions. That could happen soon after the Chinese government approves the national security law on Thursday."


As usual, my view of this situation is not quite the same as the pablum served on U.S. lamestream news. Some of us may recall the 1997 handover of Hong Kong from Britain to China and the tremendous nationalistic pride in Hong Kong emanating from the liberation from Britain. Fast forward 23 years and the British rule is now the good old days. Hong Kong's "special rights" under the China reunification were supposed to last 50 years, however, only an arrogant fool would believe that Beijing would allow the free-wheeling former colony to retain privileged status for that long. It's amazing it lasted as long as it did. In the meantime, half of Vancouver and Sydney real estate was bought up on the prospect that this day was inevitable. At least now all of those empty condos will have someone actually living in them, instead of being safety deposit boxes in the sky. 

If the U.S pulls the trigger on revoking Hong Kong's special trading status, it will very likely trigger global meltdown. Why? Because China's currency has been weakening into the event, and once again global gamblers have been partying like it's 1929. Overlay that with the Chinese stock exodus risk hanging like a Damocles Sword over the Nasdaq which could not come at a more lethal time. Picture a global currency crisis and Mega Tech meltdown at the same time. Smash Crash 2015 x 10. 

There is no ETF for the mega cap "MAGA" stocks (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple), however this ETF "O'Shares Giants" does a decent job, brought to us by Mr. Wonderful himself. 


Here we see the weekly reversal of fortune:

Short-covering in cyclicals is leading this last gasp rally.

Why shorts are covering ahead of this all important overnight event is not for me to say.

Nevertheless, it's a necessary and sufficient condition to trigger meltdown.

China Tech stocks bounced at the same level as in March:

Now that the economy is "re-opened", the staycation stocks are getting pounded. As of now, there is still no Cramer COVID-19 index, so we can use video game stocks as a proxy:

"China’s offshore yuan tested the weakest level on record on speculation the government would be willing to permit a weaker currency in response to fresh punitive measures from the U.S."




The last time we saw this much short-covering was the last time everyone believed the Fed B.S. had saved the day:

Insanity Is The "New Normal"

Don't try to fit in...

To successfully navigate these Disney markets we will have to think like an idiot without becoming one. Beware the Stockholm Syndrome. When today's two main investing strategies - dumpster diving and Ponzi scheming both implode at the same time, that is when you get the "big moves" as we saw in March.

In the meantime, just remember one thing - economic meltdown is a hoax. Party on Garth. Party on Wayne. 

This COVID shutdown is merely the worst idea coming at the end of decades' worth of ever-worse ideas. An old age home painted into the corner by a life time of bad decisions choosing wealth over health until they had a near death experience and shit a brick. Trump will forever regret his decision to shutdown the U.S. economy. After all, it was merely another indulgent executive order to delight his decrepit Twitter mob. It was a kneejerk reaction that he regretted immediately. And one that will forever be seen as the death knell for American Ponzi capitalism. Too late. Nature pulled a punch and the Idiocracy blinked. I don't care what CNN says, if they had the slightest clue that their Amazon-indulged virtual way of life is already over, they would be panicking right now too. Those on the alt-right warning of economic meltdown are not wrong, they just have ZERO credibility. Too many fake conspiracy theories has rendered this impending meltdown just another hoax to be ignored as the "system" collapses in real-time. For their part, today's EconoDunces, years hence can brag that paying people to borrow money (negative interest rates) was the best idea they had at the time, having systematically exhausted every other dumbfuck idea. First they consigned the developing world to poverty and then they failed the entire developed world as well. 

Getting back to Trump Casino, as I've said many times before, insanity is the "new normal". The Great Depression saw 10 bear market rallies - on average one per year. Each time, gamblers believed it was the light at the end of the tunnel, when it was really a freight train screaming towards them. This however, is the most denialistic rally in human history. Not only is the virus still en fuego, but the economy is nowhere near rock bottom. Meanwhile momentum junk is making new highs.

I've also said many times that the stock market exists solely for insider share dumping and IPO moonshots, - which happens to be insider share dumping as well. This past week, the crap-laden IPO index made a new all time high, as the virtual economy bubble went manic. And, what to do but start launching new IPOs again. Yes, you read that right, Wall Street launched a new IPO, and it was a moonshoot at that:


"Inari Medical posted pricing terms on May 18th for its IPO: 7.3 million shares at $14 to $16 each...The deal was [final] priced after the close on Thursday: 8.2 million shares at $19 each. That’s right. Bankers upsized the deal and priced it above the high end of its new price range. The IPO started trading Friday at $41.30 and closed at $42.51, up 123.7 percent from its IPO price."
To be more accurate, the stock closed 200% above the original $14 term sheet price.

Here we see the overall IPO index as of mid-day Monday. Making a key reversal of fortune on the daily:

As I was saying, each rally will look more specious than the last which means that bearish sentiment will rise over time from today's still-denialistic levels. However, central banks will do their best to ensure that valuations remain fully disconnected from reality. Which means that the market will remain uninvestable from a long-term perspective. In the meantime, the bearish consensus will grow and the bear market rallies will become more brutal with each leg lower. Something we have to expect going forward. When we ride the rallies higher, we have to make sure they reach full glue sniffing mode before we bail. Otherwise we will get out far too early. On the downside, when the neighbours are bearish, then it's time to rent stocks again. Rinse and repeat. 

It appears as of Monday, that we are watching a major capitulation rally as weak handed bears got mowed down with a 600 Dow point open after the long weekend. However, the Nasdaq is starting to roll over.

Which means that the 1930 trade war rally is reaching its apex.

Zooming out on the S&P 500 we see a very familiar pattern emerging. A bear rinse at the 200 day and then re-test of the two month low. 

The rest of the world took the Memorial Day holiday as a chance to catch up with U.S. delusion. Kindly delaying overnight risk until U.S. stay-at-home gamblers were back on line. So they could watch their self-implosion in real-time. 

Speaking of stay-at-home gamblers, this site RobinTrack tracks the stock positions of gamblers using the Robinhood app. Many of whom are newbies to online trading. As you can see from the leaderboard, the largest among neophyte gamblers is Ford.

The people using this app and most people in general get their investment ideas from chat rooms and other like-minded neophytes. Essentially, it's a circle jerk of like-minded dunces, not unlike MAGA itself.

Of all the bellwether stocks I track on my most bearish list, Ford happens to be at the top of the list. Because it's tracing out a three wave correction at the EXACT same level as post-Lehman. Which means that a lot of people on Robinhood are about to explode:

In summary, the market is a value trap. Meaning that there is no value in this market and therefore bottom fishing collapsing sectors amid rampant denialistic bullshit is a great way to self-implode. What is keeping this economy from rebounding any time soon is lingering COVID fear, social distancing, and a byzantine clusterfuck of re-opening by-laws and rules that vary from locality to locality. Ironically the much heralded vaccine won't help much because the faster it's developed, the less it will be trusted. The "anti-vax" movement is about to go mainstream. Geezers are between a rock and a hard place, and young people are already breaking the rules, still not sure why they were in forced celibacy mode in the first place. Clearly a conspiracy of parents. 

All of which is why from a casino standpoint, the only asset class left is "Momentum" - which operates per the greater theory of investing: Everyone expecting a greater fool to come along, until they inevitably realize the greatest fool is the one in the mirror. 

When these two strategies - dumpster diving and Ponzi scheming - both implode at the same time, that is when you get the BIG index moves to the downside. As we saw in March and as we will see again now.

Gamble at your own risk.

The Dumbfuck Money Bubble. See It, Or Be It.

Carbon has collapsed, wealth inequality is next...

Speculation is running rampant as to what's next? Gamblers are using money printed stimulus checks to bid up the virtual economy bubble while the real economy explodes in broad daylight. The mainstream economists now sniffing monetary glue are today's "experts" while those of us who question this insanity are locked in a padded cell while the inmates run the asylum...

Is it immoral to monetize idiots? I don't know, but I'm taking my chances.

I'm having great difficulty blogging these days, because my rage collapsed in line with the carbon reduction. I've never experienced writer's block previously, and no amount of alcohol is helping this time, whereas previously it was jet fuel on the bonfire. I'm becoming fat and happy - everything I hate about this world. I now regard blogging as an affront to the Creator for having delivered everything I/we asked for - A generational paradigm shift in real time. The biggest shift in 100 years. All paid for in carbon. 

Granted, we all have skin in this game now. We all know too many friends and family who are card carrying members of the Corporate Borg. The groupthink circle jerk of idiots now in manic overdrive.

Picture a scenario in which no matter how ludicrous the economic divide becomes, today's EconoDunces STILL evince full faith in money printing. Imagine stay-at-home gamblers using stimulus money to bid up their own portfolios. And imagine central banksters vowing to "do whatever it takes" to drive a ever-larger gap between asset valuations and the real economy. What more can they do other than to administer MORE monetary euthanasia? The American Dream has now morphed into the American glue sniffing contest.

This past week, I vowed to stay off Zerohedge - what I consider financial crack cocaine. I was doing so well until this weekend, and then I caved and became my usual unhinged when I came across this article predicting hyperinflation.

This article follows the typical fake news formula - a handful of loss leader facts to lure the reader in, a specious narrative, and a pre-ordained conclusion. I can't rebut all of it, however, it was so specious that it inadvertently made me realize that my hyper-bearish prediction is not bearish enough. I came to realize that these money printing morons at global central banks can't create anything approaching reflation any time soon. Therefore I created a new economic model to indicate why any expectation of reflation has been pushed back by months, if not years. My new hyper-bearishness comes down to the fact that asset crash will bring about a collapse in investment AND a collapse in household leverage. The highest income households that are far above the median income will fall the hardest, in a total reverse of what has happened over the past decades, the wealthy elite will implode.

The middle class bailout will collapse lifestyles down to the median income. There will be a glut of everything, but mostly cars and McMansions. 

The article draws a straight line between central bank money printing and hyperinflation. Not even ONE mention of COVID, and no mention of the socially distanced economic multiplier. No mention of Japan and their 30 year experiment with printed money, all leading to extreme deflation.

Sophomoric garbage at best. 

A casual glance at reflation and the Fed balance sheet indicates that there is no straight line between monetary expansion and reflation.

This past week, the NYSE delisted JC Penney.

It's time for the casino class to realize that the stock market is NOT more important than the 'Conomy.

Make no mistake, this is the biggest dumbfuck money bubble in human history, without any comparison.