Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Momentum Crash In Progress

The Tech/Momentum bubble is final(ly) imploding...

Today, the S&P 500 was mere points from its all time high set in February, when it spontaneously exploded from 20 points green to -30 points red at the lows of the day. 

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, today's "new almost time high" was actually the third lower high for the broader market and hence farcical to anyone except the ubiquitous fools who believed in it:

Today's selloff was all the more surprising given the fact that Tuesday's are almost overwhelmingly up days in Trump Casino.

Compliments of market manipulation around the weekly Wednesday VIX options expiration:

This is the year-to-date S&P point gain by day of week. What else to expect in Disney markets?

The Nasdaq (100) broadening top is now broken which puts first support at the lower tag line which is also at the 50 day moving average.

Momentum Tech, which includes mega caps and small caps alike, has a much bigger drop until support.

If February is any guide, then the 200 day moving average is the first counter-trend rally line:

Gold broke hard today along with the momentum trades, putting that dumbfuck reflation argument to rest. Bond yields had their biggest back up in weeks and yet gold traded inverse to the reflation trades. 

Nevertheless, if the February pattern holds, gold could see a fake safe haven rotation soon and a chance for another high. As we see below, the BTFD Team was pouring massive volume into GLD:

I have no short-term prediction.

Doing things in reverse today, that takes care of Trump Casino.

As far as the economy, Congress keeps dicking around with the second stimulus, because after all it's not their economic circumstances that are crashing.

"Don't expect a another stimulus check anytime soon.

While there's bipartisan support for a second round of direct payments, negotiators have walked away from talks without a deal, and most lawmakers have now returned to their home states."

The political environment right now can only be described as toxic. Reminiscent of the 1930s, the level of vitriol on both sides ahead of the election is hideous.

We are surrounded by two echo chambers of groupthink idiots. The inevitable endgame for a mindless corporate Borg that prizes the freedom of action, while wholesale abandoning freedom of thought.

Which is why freedom of speech has now become a liability in a society running amok with marketing-enabled sociopaths. Opportunistic sharks swimming in a sea of nihilism. Instead of bringing truth to light, freedom of speech has buried the truth beneath an internet wasteland of toxic disinformation.

It would be better to live under a regime of known propaganda than this current endlessly fragmented barrage of spam. At least everyone would know the truth is 180 degrees opposite the official Politburo Party line.

Sadly, all freedoms are wasted on a society of aspirational corporate drones. Now, giving rise to a multitude of infantile conspiracy theories. 

By all rights this impending market event should implode Trump's last chance at re-election. However, given the GOP proclivity for rigging elections, only a fool would make that prediction.

One thing we know for certain, no matter which way the election goes, sooner or later rage is going to explode.

As always, I am on the side of sooner.

"Let's cut off all stimulus and see what that does for sentiment"
"Good idea"