The Art Of The Implosion

 Sadly, the U.S. can't afford another four years of greatness...

Trump has always maintained that if Biden gets elected the stock market will crash. Whereas if he gets re-elected his mega bubble will grow to infinity. However, the market has been rallying on the now universal presumption of a Biden win. With only two weeks to go, the polls are narrowing and now it's Trump who is not priced in to this equation. Ironically, it's ONLY because of the Biden rally that Trump's prospects still look good.

"All but two times since World War II, a higher stock market going into the election has signaled the incumbent president or his party would win the election...“Normally, the S&P predicts the presidential election, but that’s usually confirmed by the election portfolio...a portfolio of stocks that should do well during a Biden presidency have been outperforming Trump stocks"

That's an understatement. The markets have been abandoning Trump for four years straight:

What's also ironic is that Trump is closer to a deal with Pelosi than he is with his own party:

"The developments on Capitol Hill amounted to an extraordinary scene two weeks before the election, in which a badly weakened president was throwing concessions at Democrats to cement a deal that his own party was resisting"

Above all, Republicans fretted that a vote on such a package could interfere with their hasty timetable for confirming Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court by early next week"

Got that? The GOP just threw Trump under the bus in order to stack the Supreme Court with Jesus freaks. We can surmise that this never-ending stimulus deal is all political theater now. Which is what Goldman Sachs has concluded:

"Even if a deal in principle is announced in coming days — this seems possible, but not likely — it looks very unlikely that it would pass before Election Day.”

Among other markets assuming a Biden win, is the best performing stock market of 2020:

The sector that has performed the best under Trump, is the virtual economy. What else?

This week, it's beginning to unravel. 

This is the daily chart of the same ETF:

Team Groupthink is starting to realize that mass delusion is a crowded trade. Time to get back on Bloomberg Messenger and broadcast a change of plans. 

Picture all money managers pulling the plug at the same time. Because they realize that King Donny could get re-elected.

In summary, this current week is the 1987 crash anniversary. Whereas next week is the 1929 crash anniversary. Trump true believers are about to get everything they deserve.

Good News, Denial Is Fully Priced In

Stoned gamblers have been front-running mass delusion since the March lows. Why stop now?

In the standard denialist tradition, we need not fear that anyone sees this coming...

I just skimmed this article on Zerohedge claiming that the race is tightening deja vu of 2016. All Trump needs now is for the FBI to open a specious investigation on Biden's emails this coming week, as they did against Clinton four years ago. I will be the first to admit, I have no clue who will win the election. I will also admit that Zerohedge has no clue either. In their election analysis they spent all of their time sifting the tea leaves and none of their time questioning Wall Street's Peter Pan outcomes. 

Which is where honesty comes in handy. 

Because putting aside all of the usual bullshit, there really is only one straight line path to economic reflation, which is the blue wave scenario. Which also happens to be conveniently already priced in to markets.

Here is my own infographic on the various election scenarios, below. As we see, three out of four scenarios lead to gridlock and economic deflation, which will result in extreme societal acrimony. One can argue, as I have, that even the blue wave scenario will likely push stimulus back until February/March due to the lame duck session. When Trump goes to jail, his supporters will likely rise up against the Deep State. I can't wait to watch that on TV. Running Man 2021. 

The operating assumption in all of these scenarios is that the House remains Democrat.

It used to be said that political gridlock was good for the markets, because it meant no major changes to policy. However, that is no longer the case. Now, stimulus IS GDP hence any impediments to further stimulus will be deflationary. The current political impasse - evident every single day now - will only greatly worsen after the election. The key issue is that the GOP is dead set against helping out the states, which means that a gridlock scenario is tantamount to mass insolvency at the state and local levels. The next domino to fall.

True to form, with only two weeks until the election, gamblers have already priced in the best case scenario. Which is what drove this recent rally from the September lows:

Here we see the S&P Advance decline percent (10 dma), which peaked at the same level as June. 

The top performing (single levered) sector ETF is solar. One can make the case that a Biden win is "priced in":

"Invesco’s Solar ETF (TAN) has become one of the market’s hottest exchange-traded funds, up almost 139% year to date and counting as former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in presidential election polls."

In summary, per the denialist tradition, we can rest assured that once again, "no one" sees it coming:

Tech Wreck 2020

This stimulus fantasy is reminiscent of the TARP vote in October 2008, except that bailout was real...

Not a day goes by now when the stimulus talks are not a catalyst for a gap open rally. Fake hope springs eternal. Clearly neither side wants be seen as "giving up" on stimulus ahead of the election, so both sides keep the dialogue open if only for appearance sake. If they DON'T arrive at an agreement before the election, value/cyclicals will implode. If they do arrive at an agreement, the selloff in Tech will accelerate. Many people seem to forget that the first TARP vote failed back in October 2008. Stocks of course tanked, but then they rallied back into the second vote a week later. When the second vote passed, the market collapsed.

Few saw that coming. 

Back to the Tech wreck, over the weekend I showed the whiplash reversal in futures net speculative that took place last week. Many other commentators noticed it as well. This author below calls these people "the smart money". Apparently being long at the September top and then getting record short at the bottom just before a massive two week rally is "smart". Imagine what the dumb money was doing. 

"After establishing one of their biggest short positions in U.S. tech stocks in more than a decade earlier this month, hedge-fund managers poured their money into Nasdaq futures at a near-record rate, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission"

Notice the Bloomberg chart they show indicating the week over week net change in speculative positioning. This past week was the second largest reversal. The largest was in 2007.

Here is what that data looks like when you strip out the noise and show only the two largest position reversals on record.

Any questions?

It gets worse. Or better depending how smart you are.

This asinine article also appeared on Marketwatch today. ETF newcomer "Ark Funds" has staked their claim to fame and fortune in this bubble by making the most outlandishly bullish predictions. Because in this society nothing is more rewarded than fraudulent predictions:

Every generation of gamblers has a cheerleader. This generation has several, among them Jim Cramer, Dave Portnoy, Suze Orman, and CNBC; however this Cathie Wood of Ark Invest takes the Madoff award for biggest Ponzi schemer. 

Here we see the amount of volume that has flowed into this death trap in 2020.

When this ETF implodes, the whole Ponzi market, including Tesla, Nvidia, Zoom, Peloton, Semiconductors, MAGA stocks etc. are going to implode. 

Those who were not gambling during Y2K have likely never heard of people such as Mary Meeker and Henry Blodget who made similarly outlandish claims of future performance as the bubble was peaking:

2001: Where Mary Meeker Went Wrong:

"Anointed by Barron's as "Queen of the Net," lovingly profiled by The New Yorker, equated with Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett as a market mover by the Wall Street Journal, Meeker was the unquestioned diva of the Internet Age. Tech companies begged her to cover them. Morgan Stanley paid her an eye-popping $15 million in 1999. Ordinary investors hounded her for autographs. During the dot-com craze, Mary Meeker was by far the most important voice for the Internet--and the notion that companies without earnings could transform the world and climb to the moon.

That was then. Today Meeker, 41, has become something else entirely: the single most powerful symbol of how Wall Street can lead investors astray. For the past year, as Internet stocks have crumbled and entire companies have vaporized, Meeker has maintained the same upbeat ratings on her companies that characterized her research reports in the glory days. For instance, of the 15 stocks Meeker currently covers, she has a strong buy or an outperform rating on all but two. Among the stocks she has never downgraded are Priceline, Amazon, Yahoo, and FreeMarkets--all of which have declined between 85% and 97% from their peak"

Good times. 

This past weekend, the "Big Money Poll" in Barron's was roundly bullish going into bonus season.

Go figure.

As we know, Team Groupthink has an impeccable track record for being consensus wrong:

In summary:

Denialation: The Problem That Fixes Itself

Heading into the existential election, Trump country is seeing its largest COVID spike to date...

The loyal geezers from Trump country were right there with Trump in the early days of the COVID hoax theory. At that time the virus mostly afflicted cities and other dens of iniquity. Over time the hoax hypothesis became fully engrained. Not wearing a mask became a sign of Trump support. Which is why this much more powerful second wave is now afflicting rural areas much more than cities. The areas with the least amount of healthcare resources. Fast forward to now and those same geezers are spending all their time at Zoom funerals while their dumbfuck progeny are still convinced it's a hoax. In two weeks time - not trusting mail-in voting - they are ALL going to congregate en masse at the polls to re-elect the Anti-Christ in their own image. In what will be the largest superspreader event of 2020, during the largest COVID outbreak of the year. 

What could go wrong?

"Friday, we had 70,000 cases, matching the largest number we had seen back during the really serious peak in July," he said Sunday. "That number, we're going to blow right through that. And between now and the holidays, we will see numbers much, much larger than even the 67,000 to 75,000 cases."

Looking back, historians will say that COVID accelerated the collapse that began in 2008. Under Obama we endured eight years of monetary euthanasia, which sad to say is how Trump got elected. It was the deaths of despair campaign strategy.  Trump, no stranger to bankruptcy, promised rented prosperity to be delivered during the most fiscally profligate presidency in U.S. history. Now in 2020, his glue sniffing contest known as "MAGA" is wholly dependent upon non-stop monetary and fiscal policy.

Since COVID, the demise of brick and mortar retail went on apocalyptic steroids. The overwhelming faith in technology reached its apex, as the replicants at large became one with the machine during the work from home pandemonium. All of the parts of the economy that rely on human interaction - bars, hotels, fitness centers, restaurants, airlines, local service businesses, went dark. While the automated part of the economy run by computers took remaining market share. An extreme deflationary event - the mass swapping out of people with machines, on an epic scale. The pyrrhic deflationary victory of the corporate oligarchy. The wholesale replacement of human beings with machines. There is only one problem, robots don't go shopping and they don't watch Netflix. 

Amid all of this late stage self-destruction, the aspirational replicants fed their last vestiges of intelligence into the dumbphone 12. Outsourcing all thinking to the machines. We are now surrounded by a mindless Borg that is only interested in the opinions of other mindless replicants. Mainlined with corporate frankenfood and living the dream of virtual simulated happiness and rented prosperity.

It can come as no surprise that mental health is collapsing while anxiety and depression are rampant. This Borg has no idea who to trust anymore, since being honest and genuine is the surest way to lose the race to competitive conformity.

Soon, all of this insanity will turn to pixie dust and blow away. The real reason there has been no additional stimulus is because stocks have been going vertical since the March low. The billionaires are richer now than before the pandemic started. Had stocks tanked, there would have been a massive stimulus already. Which is why when the casino crashes down to economy reality, and the political quagmire yields rioting, the days of propping up billionaire wealth will be over. At that point, the replicants will realize they got conned by a society of trusted con men. Everything they believed in was a denialist fantasy at THEIR expense.

Then, will come acrimony.

The Final Descent

The problem with the Banana Republican Party is that they've become far too enthusiastic with their great descent into squalor...

"What a fool believes he sees

No wise man has the power to reason away

What seems to be, is always better than nothing"

I've said many times that history will not be kind to this era, well we don't have to wait to find out because the first reviews are rolling off the presses. This article in Rolling Stone magazine: COVID Ended Exceptionalism, is brutal even by my standards. It reduces the Fox News led exceptionalism circle jerk to a conspiracy of idiots, now driving a relentless descent into depravity.

The article quotes Oscar Wilde:

"The United States is the only country to go from barbarism to decadence without passing through civilization"

From there, the historical indictment gets considerably less flattering, as the clear eye of history flushes the MAGA turd down the toilet. The problem for Banana Republicans is that they have become far too comfortable with their descent into depravity. These are the same people who re-elected George W. Bush AFTER they knew he lied about WMDs in Iraq. That fiasco turns 18 years old next year and the blunder in Afghanistan turns twenty. The two longest blunders in U.S. history without any comparison. According to today's historical illiterates, the U.S. can never leave these exorbitant wars of attrition because that would signal weakness. History will say those entanglements bled the country white:

"Bin Laden wanted to lure the United States into Afghanistan, which was already being called the graveyard of empires."

Wright, Lawrence. The Looming Tower

 

Of course COVID didn't cause U.S. downfall, it merely revealed what had been so carefully concealed from the rest of the world, beneath the Hollywood facade:

"COVID-19 didn’t lay America low; it simply revealed what had long been forsaken. As the crisis unfolded, with another American dying every minute of every day, a country that once turned out fighter planes by the hour could not manage to produce the paper masks or cotton swabs essential for tracking the disease. The nation that defeated smallpox and polio, and led the world for generations in medical innovation and discovery, was reduced to a laughing stock as a buffoon of a president advocated the use of household disinfectants as a treatment for a disease that intellectually he could not begin to understand"

"Evidence of such terminal decadence is the choice that so many Americans made in 2016 to prioritize their personal indignations, placing their own resentments above any concerns for the fate of the country and the world, as they rushed to elect a man whose only credential for the job was his willingness to give voice to their hatreds, validate their anger, and target their enemies, real or imagined"

The way back is long regardless of who gets elected, however the U.S. will not survive another four years of exceptional depravity.

Which gets us to the theme of the week, deflation. Everyone else talks about looming inflation, so I thought I would spell out what is actually coming - the exact opposite: Deflation.

The problem in a nutshell is that Republican Supply Side policies are inherently deflationary. Robbing the poor to pay the rich. They are all supply side, and nothing on the demand side, because that would be "Keynesian" or socialist, in the words of morons. 

Which is why the GOP likely blew the election when Pelosi offered them a massive $2.2 trillion dollar election winning stimulus package. If they had any brain they would have run to the bank with it, because surely that amount of sugar high would have kept this gong show going another two weeks. Instead they put their stalwart lack of principle ahead of commonsense. They were too eager to screw the blue states ahead of the election to realize they probably threw Big Donny under the bus. 

I put together this handy infographic to spell out the forces of deflation versus inflation. The top section represents deflationary factors: record numbers of layoffs continuing at a rate close to a million every single week. Widespread income insecurity, burgeoning insolvencies, the COVID lockdown, dwindled stimulus, political clusterfuck, and of course record corporate debt. The forces of "reflation" number: human history's biggest asset bubble, record misallocated capital, and of course rampant denial and bullshit. GOP tradition.

Hard as it may be to believe, but bidding up stocks in a pandemic depression is not "reflationary". Which means that until the GOP is replaced and/or we see mass rioting and hence "regime change", the deflationary paradigm will deepen.

If there was any sign of real reflation, bond yields would be spiking along with Treasury inflation expectations, however that's not happening:

Along with the collapse in global stock markets, the impending explosion will bring a dollar margin call, which will be highly deflationary. COVID forced the risk free rate to zero and thereby pushed global capital out into risky assets. Where it will implode spectacularly.

After that, there will be a glut of everything. How long this all takes is not for me to say. In the meantime, the political quagmire will deepen and the COVID pandemonium will continue, until there is widespread vaccination. 

The inevitable insolvency of U.S. states due to the unemployment burden will bring the rioters into the streets en masse. At which point, the Banana Republicans will finally flip from a deflationary stance to an inflationary stance.

And then the Treasury bond market will explode. After that, inflation is possible. However, we are a long way from that point in time.

As far as the casino goes, options expiration passed without major event, however it was a very ugly close. 

Here below we see Rydex asset allocation back to a familiar level.

As we navigate our way through this minefield, we must be ever mindful of the fact that there is ~$360 trillion of misallocated bullshit circling the globe. In an era of rampant sociopaths. 

Soon, thinking for oneself will be the only way to survive this train wreck. 

The chart of the week is the one we've been waiting for, showing record Nasdaq shorts wiped off the map. A necessary and sufficient event for wave '3' down, at all degrees of trend:

Fool me all the time, shame on me

 

Humility Or Humiliation. Choose One.

Under Trump, Banana Republicans took their trademark arrogance and ignorance to level '11' Full Circus. Because anything less than pathological lying would be antithetical to their cherished values. What defines the modern political divide is "we" versus "me". For those steeped in the exceptional "fuck you Jack, I'm Ok" ideology, change would require growing up and taking responsibility for someone other than themselves. Why start now? Better to brainwash the usual idiots into believing that plundering the Treasury is capitalism, and anything that benefits them is socialism. Works every time. Those taught to believe that socialism is the worst case scenario are in for the lesson of a lifetime...

Speaking of which:

Here we see what I call borrowed/stolen GDP - meaning the Federal surplus/deficit as % of GDP. The low point was WWII however as we see we are trending in that direction. The only country that has benefited from GOP policy is the Cayman Islands.

Just over two weeks until the existential election and deja vu of 2016, the Democrats are leading in the polls. Nevertheless, we all know they specialize in giving away elections. In addition, according to the stock market barometer - which has been 87% accurate going back to 1928, Trump will win based upon the current Casino level:

"The S&P 500 stock index’s performance in the three-month period ahead of Election Day, which is Nov. 3 this year, has proven accurate over the past nearly four decades. The equity-market performance measure has been the best predictor of U.S. presidential elections since 1984, proving 87% accurate since 1928"

Got that? Policies don't matter, hooker payoffs don't matter, cheating on wives and taxes - we all make mistakes. Only the Casino matters.

Which means that as long as Trump's decade overbought Tech bubble remains inflated for another two weeks, all bodes well for Trump.

What could go wrong?

This article shows the current level of delusion:

“I have friends and clients and colleagues who come to me and say, ‘Should I hedge? Should I get out ahead of this election?’ And I say no”

"...the tech boom of 2000 has been exceeded in terms of the relative outperformance of technology into the S&P,” Gordon said. “So, I say stay with the trend.”

Because what could go wrong?

Here is another take on today's casino:

“They are buying bullish call options that expire inside two weeks. There was ($500 billion) of bullish call options bought in a four-week stretch by small retail traders,” Smead said. “In ’99 it was $100 billion, in ’07, it was $100 billion.”

It’s not just the younger generations fault, however. Smead says baby boomers certainly deserve some of the blame for riding “the index to a fault”

Which gets us to positioning ahead of this major event.

New Active Manager positioning data shows that active managers - who turned massively bearish in September, have now bought into the blue wave fantasy. The delusion that this election will bring instant stimulus and a COVID vaccine at the same time. 

Here we see Team Groupthink is long in the 103rd percentile which is back to multi-year highs. In other words, when Trump fell in the polls that was bearish, but when Biden surged that was bullish. Because all "uncertainty" has been removed. Civil war can be averted, except these fools bid up their own stocks making a contested election now more likely. 

Doh.

Next we look at market manipulation using options. Here we see via the 5 day call/put ratio, animal spirits have surged back to the same record level from June and September. As we know, June was the cyclical/value peak and September was the Nasdaq/growth peak. This marks a counter-trend high for both:

In summary, as I've said many times, Trump "deserves" to win and have his house of cards collapse all around him like a cheap tent. That said, I am not personally betting that the Trump Casino endorses another four years of Circus Donny.

I never liked the circus. Too many fucking clowns. 

Can you imagine a stock market bubble in a depression pandemic? Only a proven Idiocracy could believe in such a thing.

After the 1929 crash it took 25 years (1955) to breakeven. Not everyone has that kind of time.

Market Manipulation To The Very End

At the end, criminality wasn't illegal, it was in the White House...

What do I mean by commonly accepted market manipulation?

I mean central banks flooding the system with liquidity to inflate all risk assets and encourage speculation. Now featuring a depressionary economy amid record high stock market valuations.

Market cap/GDP:

Trump talking up stocks on Twitter for four years straight, including at the top in February and again at the top in September. Human history's greatest con man.

Feb. 24th, 2020:

Corporations bankrupting themselves to buy back stock from insiders cashing out. While laying off employees at the rate of 800,000 per week.

Corp Debt / GDP:

Wall Street putting out one bullish forecast after another during a pandemic depression. Never once considering giving the advice to sell. Also conflating debt with "GDP" so that copious idiots can pretend the recession is over, despite a -17% budget deficit.

Why didn't we think of this sooner?

I mean, well known manipulation of the options market to bid up Tech stocks. Which is what led to the blow-off top last month, and is driving the market this month as well:

"a large buyer of tech calls dubbed the Nasdaq whale recently resurfaced, purchasing around $200 million worth of call contracts on tech stocks in a single day. The Nasdaq 100 Index has gained in all but two sessions this month and just notched its best week since July after last month’s sharp drop."

Trading in options showed itself capable of influencing share movement in August and September, when dealer hedging -- demand from people who sell options for the underlying stock -- created feedback loops that helped drive the Nasdaq 100 higher. That dynamic can also add fuel to downside moves as well as sellers adjust positions."

Try this again...

The last monthly options expiration before the election is this Friday. What could go wrong?

I mean an IPO market going vertical as Wall Street dumps record numbers of "blank check" SPAC IPOs into a yield-starved market:

"Spacs raise money from investors, via a public listing, and then merge with a private company, in effect taking it public while avoiding a traditional initial public offering.

The current statistics around Spacs are startling: so far this year 133 Spacs have been floated in the US, raising $51.1bn, nearly four times last year’s volume"

Move along, nothing to see here:

Here are some other things that are wrong with this casino:

Thanks to central banks, shorting volatility is now an asset class. Why? Because central banks want everyone to be fat and happy.

Which is why volatility positioning never went net long once during the March meltdown. There was unquestioned belief in central banks.

A belief that is about to explode spectacularly.

For the past two years, the Tech bubble has become more and more manic into the existential election, fed by record amounts of stimulus:

In summary, all of the above widely embraced chicanery has euthanized gamblers to today's overwhelming risks. Which will only serve to spectacularly implode more people, who never ever see it coming. 

With the economy in shambles, markets are now addicted to stimulus. Which is why political gridlock is the biggest risk gamblers face. Trump's Twitter feed looks like the National Enquirer with all of the conspiracy theories regarding the election. His base of useful idiots is getting very agitated. A blue wave is far from assured, and any stimulus is at best months away. Meanwhile, without a widespread vaccine, the stimulus is only reaching a subset of the total economy. A combined stimulus + ubiquitous vaccine could be six months or more away.

All of which is why the lying has been ratcheted up to level '11'. Today's psychopaths are using copious bullshit to "bridge" the gap until something more tangible comes along. But it won't work. We are in a bear market in a depression. Anyone who says anything to the contrary is lying. The very wealthy have been well euthanized by central bank asset inflation. However, the middle class is under the bus and sinking with each passing day. When the Trump bubble explodes, everyone will be on the same page. And the stimulus will flow to the people who actually need it. 

And then four decades of supply side economics will be over, as will the political future for those who bound their fate to it.

What we learn from history is that idiots never learn from history.