We're just blogging for the archaeologists now. The first question they will ask is how did so few zombies see this coming? Who wants to take that question...
We are seeing a culmination of risks at this juncture that is beyond anything we've seen in our lifetimes. As always the burden of truth falls on us minority believers in inconvenient reality:
https://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html
Average true range (lower pane) captures overnight gap moves, unlike most volatility measurements which are intra-day.
Begin with this end of year liquidity implosion:
ZH: Liquidity Crash Is Imminent
What the Zerohedge article takes pains not to mention is that this problem was due to the chasmic Federal deficit, which is the equivalent of quantitative tightening on a record scale.
“The dramatic increase in Treasury issuance takes liquidity out of the system,” Kaplan said
What the Zerohedge article kind of gets right despite avoiding the root cause is that there is now a massive duration mismatch between Fed liquidity operations and the underlying liquidity constraint. The Fed is buying short-term debt, while the Treasury is issuing RECORD long-term debt.
This is to avoid the "optics" of financing the Trump deficit.
Federal debt $ rate of change:
Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, has been blaming regulations for the liquidity shortfall, but the Bank for International Settlements isn't buying it. Their assessment is that "too big to fail" U.S. banks are now too much larger to fail:
In other words, let's say the Fed assured everyone that they were fixing the overnight bank liquidity problem, but instead of doing that they bid up revenueless junk stocks while putting everyone into a deep narco coma.
Would that be a problem?
Another factor never mentioned on right wing media is the fact that insiders have been cashing out for two years straight.
Now at the fastest rate since you know when:
While home gamers are taking record risk
Add in this fake trade deal which has done nothing other than generate a massive short-covering rally.
And the fact that central banks have lost control over the underlying economy. They are merely controlling the misallocation of capital.
Creating asset rotations that are not based upon anything real.
The important thing is that once again simulated prosperity is at an all time high:
Because another Tech bubble has been assiduously ignored
And because the beloved narco pharma sector is going parabolic. Again.
But the main reason they don't see this coming, is because they are all glued to the circus.
And the Entertainer-in-Chief
I created this entirely new blog to put PonziWorld behind me. This new platform better suits my aspirations going forward. I've lived the "high life", now I'm settling in for something a lot more real.
Twitter's 280 character limit lasted 24 hours before I felt I was being inducted into the Idiocracy. It's difficult to convey even a single cogent idea in that many words much less characters.
Which gets me to the point of this post. There's a reason why I've had to move things around and reinvent my blog right now - because it's impossible to get through to people these days. Everyone is in their own silo'd echo chambers, assiduously ignoring reality. Add to that the spreading anxiety and mental health crisis and there is no chance any form of reality can break down the walls. I've probably personally triggered at least a thousand people over the past decade.
There is literally no realistically bearish commentary anywhere to be found right now. It's all pollyanna bullshit. This comfort seeking society can't handle the truth in any direction anymore.
All of which is truly ironic, because we've never seen this kind of risk before. But surely complacency plays a tremendous role in that risk. Faith in central banks is complete even in the face of economic deterioration. As if the Dow is the only measure of economic well-being. A one stop shop to know that everything is just A-OK. And of course the impeachment circus has the political class tied in knots while Trump acolytes are blocking and tackling non-stop. Taking their talking points each day from Rupert Murdoch. And then there is the existential election which has all of the right wing pundits lying constantly about the economy.
I say all this to a handful of contemporary readers just to know that the vast majority of people will be truly awe stricken by the magnitude of what is about to come. And perhaps for good reason. If they can't handle this much anxiety already, I can't believe this will improve their state of mind.
We're looking at an epic culmination of risks from every angle - recession risk, complacency, liquidity, breadth collapse, depleted stimulus, no safe havens, relentless trade wars, impeachment, political dysfunction, extreme overvaluations, rising asset correlations.
That these risks can all be explained away with a blithe wave of the hand and some fabricated 2020 Wall Street projections is all you need to know about the fake era. It's all fake now.
The set-up right now is eerily similar to the left shoulder, as it should be. The VIXPlosion 1.0 took place in the week after the jobs report. Circled:
The NYSE Composite which I posted on Twitter earlier today, is highly symmetrical. A FOMO melt-up on the left shoulder and now a FOMO melt-up on the right shoulder.
Hindenburg Omens warning what is about to come:
Dollar Yen is at a critical juncture right now:
Guessing on one jobs report is a fool's errand, nevertheless the risk is skewed to the downside:
"Economists are looking for very good numbers and the arguments in favor of a softer payrolls report exceeds a stronger one so there’s a big disconnect from expectations and data, which can lead to volatility"
Risk appetite is also wobbly, which means that a softer report could have a bigger impact on USD/JPY and other major currencies than a strong one"
$USDJPY is the primary conduit for off-hours risk to the S&P futures
The much touted breakout in the S&P Industrials has now evaporated, amid dissolving trade hopium:
Of course Tech remains the biggest risk. With Internets the weakest link.
Ecommerce, Social Media, Cloud stocks:
The average stock is pre-imploded
The world's largest stock by market cap and best performing large cap tech stock of the year, was upgraded today:
