Monday, May 31, 2021

Stuck In A Third World Deflation Crisis

The only inflation is in hyperbolic bullshit, which is now half the economy. Those who don't see this coming, were not meant to see this coming. To them mass exploitation is the "system" and they are the beneficiaries. Therefore it never occurs to them that it's their turn to go under the bus...
 

Why are "prices" going up? Did I miss something, did the middle class float back from China? Did we finally bailout workers and restore their standard of living back to what it was forty years ago? Of course not. That narrative is for useful idiots. The reason why prices are rising is because yet again during COVID we bailed out the rich and therefore asset speculation is rampant. It's the exact opposite of what the Idiocracy believes. The Trump era proved that checking facts is not their priority. Believing ignorant and arrogant bullshit is the order of the day. The price to be paid for being a true believer didn't come in November.

It's coming now...







Contrary to popular belief, this is a Third World deflation crisis. Not only is the debt market hyper-sensitive to interest rate increases, but the commodity market is hyper-sensitive to balance sheet expansion. The Fed is using the wrong tool. Their approach to inflating the assets of the wealthy will always collapse back in on itself as Ponzi inflation expands and then crashes. As long as they continue with this approach, they will always fail. The only beneficiaries will be the corporate insiders cashing out at public expense. 

At 0% interest rates monetary policy no longer has ANY effect upon the middle class standard of living. It's over. The Fed can bid up billionaire portfolios, but all they're doing is creating greater wealth inequality. The debt penury expansion game has ended at the zero bound, amid stagnant incomes. These commodity-fueled price increases only add insult to injury. Throw in another stock bubble, another housing bubble,  and another crypto bubble for maximum pain. Ten losers for every "winner". 

Every pump and dump cycle leaves more middle class carnage. Every Wall Street "recovery" leaves more people behind. This is the activity rate (labour participation rate) going back to 1960:

Underemployment is the economic crisis of our time, and yet economists ignore it. Only when they themselves are mass unemployed will they realize it's a problem.

Too late.








All markets have been gamified now. This populace is addicted to gambling so they haven't yet noticed that the house always wins. They are always eager to return to Vegas. 

Gold is warning what's coming and it's not inflation:






Here is what happens next. The new bull market will be in cash. Post-crash, cash will gain in relationship to everything that can be bought and sold. The Fed will pin the long-term bond yield to zero and everything else will implode. 

From panic buying to panic selling. 

How long that continues is anyone's guess, because now the 'economy' is beholden to a fractured Congress. Which means that those who are living large beyond their means are about to see a massive forced downsizing in lifestyle.

The house will be moving like a rummage sale.

Those who are bullshitting us about inflation, are the same ones who can't admit that the past forty years has come at the expense of the middle class. To reverse that obliteration will take first a change in ideology from supply side to demand side. And second it will take an actual change in policy. Don't hold your breath. 

Meanwhile, the rest of the world will be worse off, which portends competitive devaluation. The dollar will sky-rocket and that will again make everything cheaper still. Cash will go up in value every day.

Last year, these morons didn't get the memo that the competitive self-destruction lifestyle is over. It's lethal to mental and physical health. It's lethal to the environment. And now it will be lethal to financial health as well.

This bubble is running solely upon asshole inflation. And despite their overwhelming superiority in numbers, they are going up against hardcore reality. 

And this time the table stakes are $Everything, no refunds.

In summary, how many times can these people be conned?

Every time.

But when they're selling down their load of accumulated junk, even the biggest moron will come to realize that prices are not going up. 

A panic buying bubble ahead of a record asset crash is by far the worst case scenario for true believers in bullshit.