April was the month in which the re-opening "recovery" con job became record overbought and overbelieved. This past month markets went FULL Ponzi in honour of Bernie Madoff, a man before his time...
Bitcoin peaked on the exact same DAY (April 14th) that Madoff died. You can't make this shit up. Now it's three wave corrective.
Scanning all of the various "alt-coins" with their asinine names, including Dogecoin the crypto that started as a joke and then became more valuable than Ford Motor Company - I've noticed that only Ethereum is making new highs. The rest have a very similar corrective wave pattern:
Here is DoggyCoin on the hourly making its third lower high:
Now, you may be wondering why am I looking at all of these pump and dump Ponzi coins? I am wondering the same thing myself.
It's because I believe they are the least highly manipulated markets if you can believe it. Crypto Ponzi schemes are LESS manipulated than stonks. Therefore I think that they are the clearest indication of social mood.
Case in point, the Google search term "Crypto" continues to be extremely popular. And we see it peaked back in 2018 with the Global Dow, and of course with the crypto bubble.
Also in the category of extreme RISK ON sentiment (positioning), the 5 day moving average Rydex ratio has been hitting new all time highs this past week.
The other big story in April was corporate earnings. This past week saw Tech earnings from all of the big names: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon. All of these stocks ramped during the month of April, as we see by this island formation in the XLK. We've seen this movie before - where algos use earnings season to catapult mega caps into orbit on non-existent volume. Now past earnings, the insiders are free to begin selling shares again, which they have been doing with wild abandon lately, particularly in Tech stocks. I am sure they would like to take advantage of these new all time high prices. In other words the convenient volume collapse that took place in April, may not continue.
Semiconductors in particular are repeating their pattern from February:
The real point of all this market manipulation is to keep the IPO/SPAC issuance market running at a record level. 2021 already surpassed 2020 for IPO issuance. Which looks like this on an average monthly basis:
In summary, during April the stonk market officially became the most overbought in history.
"During 18 sessions this month through trading on Thursday, 95% or more of the index’s members traded above their 200-day moving average. That’s the most days ever observed in a single calendar month and double the previous high of nine days in September 2009"
"There is only one precedent in history for such a rapid doubling, when U.S. stocks doubled between June and September 1932,” Deluard says. “A 40% correction quickly followed, and then another 100% + rally in a confusing sequence of brutal bear markets and dazzling rebounds which lasted until the battle of Stalingrad turned the fate of World War II"
