One thing all of today's economists, analysts, and market pundits have in common is that they are looking in the rear view mirror while driving forward. A dangerous way to live...
Using the Dotcom March 2000 analog, the 2021 meltdown is ahead of schedule. According to last year's implosion it's right on time.
Here we see the Nasdaq circa Y2K - melted up from November '99 to March 9th, 2000. Imploded, had a three wave rally (2) and then crashed. For those who are not familiar with Elliott Wave theory, three wave retracement rallies are not bullish.
While most pundits today are still busy upgrading their price targets for 2021, the Nasdaq peaked two weeks ago. Similar to Y2K, the melt-up began in November, but this time it peaked in February. During the past two week selloff, breadth collapsed back down to early March 2020 levels (lower pane), which has led to this oversold bounce. Last year's initial oversold bounce (circled) lasted four trading days. This bounce is on day five, having launched last Tuesday:
A three wave correction is not visible on the Nasdaq chart above, as the rally is too weak, however, three waves are becoming evident on Momentum Tech, as speculators have piled back into the highest momentum stocks.
New S&P highs never confirmed this was a durable top. Just another headfake - the least credible one we've seen to date:
Here we see the Nasdaq highs - lows. This is the fourth fake rally we've seen in three years. Each crash has been of greater magnitude. This one will be epic.
It's clear that central banks enjoy pump and dumps, since they are never the ones left holding the bag:
People always want to know, what would make me bullish?
Extreme panic on the part of gamblers and central banks. And prices at least 50% lower. And my broker still online.
