CRASH INTO DEFLATION

Rule #1 of Japanification: Stimulus is everything...

My biggest mistake after 2008 was being too slow to realize that the U.S. and indeed the World are well down the path of Japanification. Meaning structural deflation at the zero bound. What inflation abides right now is cyclical and almost entirely supply driven. Which means this is not your typical rate hiking cycle that so many pundits and investors believe it is. They are of the consensus belief that this is just the beginning of the rate hiking cycle, when in fact it is very likely the END of the rate hiking cycle.

It's highly biblical that Supply Siders would commit such an egregious and amateur policy error after four decades of middle class obliteration. It's as if someone in charge wants this to end the hardest way possible. 

The mistake I made after 2008 has now been corrected. I've seen the light. Ironically, now all of today's pundits are making the exact same mistake I made i.e. ignoring the rules of Japanification. Of course the consequences of being wrong at this late juncture will be far more dire. The first rule of Japanification is that economic "reflation" is entirely dependent upon continued dramatic fiscal and monetary policy. Which means there will never be another "normalization" of policy, under the current deflationary paradigm. Which is what today's errant policy-makers are now attempting. 

Their failure will be cataclysmic at the zero bound. 

The COVID pandemic was the most deflationary event in modern world history. The first ever TOTAL lockdown of the global economy. Zero international travel, and work from home on a scale never previously even technologically possible. It was the apex of ecommerce and Amazon. It was the full scale realization of cloud computing. It was a "virtual economy". 

The initial onset of the pandemic and its 20 million layoffs saw the mass automation of jobs which was only partially offset by massive fiscal pandemic unemployment stimulus. Without which there would have surely been 1930s level poverty. However, as the pandemic progressed and life returned back to normal, the massive monetary stimulus set-off a round of manic corporate re-hiring. In addition, hundreds of new start-ups were funded via the IPO market all competing for the exact same pool of "gig workers". These factors and the pandemic-related early retirements I've discussed many times, tightened the job market beyond anything we've seen in recent decades. Putting the balance of power in the hands of the employee over the employer for the first time since 1979.

And THAT is why there is currently so much hysteria over "inflation". It is almost entirely ideological in its root cause. The chamber of commerce has informed the Fed that they need to get "inflation" under control ASAP. And hence the Fed is ignoring ALL risk in order to do so.

Here we see that despite the intervening years of population increase and GDP increase, NOMINAL commodity prices are STILL below 1980 levels. In real terms adjusted for wage CPI, these commodity prices are near decade lows (see bottom pane, red).

What people are currently (over) reacting to is the rate of change (middle pane), which is the highest since the 1973 OPEC Oil embargo. This IS a shock, but the bottom pane shows it is NOTHING comparable to what took place in the 1970s on a real income basis.  

Here we see that EVERY CPI spike since WWII preceded recession. 

Given the precarious position of consumer sentiment, we need not assume this time will be different. 

It gets far worse however, because this blinder view of inflation is causing the Fed to ignore ALL other global risks. Including as I've said the collapse of Chinese stock and real estate markets, Russian default, and global growth stock meltdown.

The worst since Russian default, 1998:

Bear in mind that these other spikes took place AFTER the event. Whereas this time Nasdaq lows are near record levels BEFORE a Fed tightening and Russian default. 

In the U.S. we are essentially blacked out from the truth. 

We are behind the Iron Curtain of bullshit and denial.

All of which is where Wall Street criminality comes in handy. Because only true con artists can speak of commodity melt-up and economic meltdown at the same time. Which are both logically and historically mutually exclusive.

Got that? High prices predict recession. And recession predicts low prices. 

So get in and out quick because if you don't front-run everyone else, you will get obliterated.  

That is the type of "trade" only Bernie Madoff could love. And yet, it's essentially the standard advice given on Wall Street - "hide" in inflation trades:

"On Sunday, Tesla CEO Musk tweeted that in times of high inflation, it is “generally better to own physical things like a home or stock in companies you think make good products,” rather than keeping your money in cash"

Elon Musk just took off the table MORE cash than he was worth before the pandemic. He nailed the top. And Warren Buffett is sitting on RECORD cash right now.

Their advice is strictly for people who CAN'T afford massive losses. 

In summary, the entire pandemic bacchanale was a sucker's rally at the end of the cycle, sold to the usual bagholders by the usual psychopaths. 

Under the auspice of being a "new cycle":

Next stop will be hard landing at the zero bound.

And what I call "bailout risk". 

Globalized Collapse In Real-Time

What we are witnessing is the collapse of Globalization in real-time, attended by a level of epic hubris that prevents the majority from seeing it happen - just as those in the Soviet Union didn't know it was ending until it was over. It's amazing what amount of societal decay can be "normalized" by a decadent society...

The main lesson from BOTH World War I and World War II was that only military alliances can create world wars. Absent alliances, conflicts remain regional. In an age of nuclear warfare, never before has that lesson been more important. Per the terms of the Budapest Memorandum reached back in 1994, Ukraine relinquished its massive nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S., Britain, and Russia. Back then, NATO expansion was in its infancy and clearly no one predicted the circumstance that would lead to this inevitable crisis. It was epic hubris on the part of the West to believe that an isolated Russia would stand by passively while the former Soviet Union got absorbed into NATO.

Yet here we are. Not to say I condone this invasion of Ukraine, only to say that history predicted it would happen. For the record there have been NO successful invasions of another country since WWII where the smaller country was supported by a superpower. ZERO. Therefore, the expansion of NATO was at best totally pointless, at worst it has needlessly brought us to the brink of WWIII.

Now, these economic sanctions have taken hubris to an entirely new level of ludicrous. The West is in no condition to simultaneously marginalize China AND Russia into submission. Which is what they are attempting right now. 

Both of those countries have a past history of repudiating capitalism for its failure to bring broad based prosperity to the masses. Now history is repeating itself. Globalized capitalism has failed those countries, which is why they are repudiating it. Globalization has also failed the rest of the planet, but unfortunately we live behind an Iron Curtain of hubristic denial. We think they don't get accurate information, when we are as blacked out from the truth as they are. 

In this coming week, on the same day that Russia is widely expected to default on its debt, the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates. The last time Russia defaulted on its debt, the Fed CUT interest rates .5% in the Fall of 1998 to stave off global meltdown. 

In addition, the last time Chinese markets were in free-fall - in 2015 and again in 2018, the Fed STOPPED raising interest rates.

Chinese stocks are now below the level of the last Fed pivot in 2018 and Chinese junk bonds are bidless:

In other words, U.S. policy-makers are now trapped by their own epic hubris. Which means that investors are trapped as well. There are literally no pundits right now warning of the insane amount of risk that is NOT priced into these Disneyfied markets. Why? Because the initial impacts of Fed tightening via their balance sheet has seen global markets ex-U.S. basically collapse. In addition, global Tech stocks have imploded with the U.S. Nasdaq closing this week in a bear market, at the very BEGINNING of a rate hike cycle. And the dollar is screaming higher demolishing global currencies. In other words, U.S. broad based indices have so far been spared. If like most pundits, you only look at the S&P and Dow, one would conclude things are not so bad. The rest of the world however is already below the pre-pandemic level. Meaning the entire pandemic rally was nothing more than an end of cycle bull trap.  

 

These three trends I mentioned above - global market collapse, Tech stock collapse, and dollar rally will accelerate in the coming weeks. And when that happens U.S. broad based indices will not be spared. Nor will the housing market, and every other market on this planet. 

The circumstances prevailing at this juncture are eerily similar to what abided in 2008:

A simultaneous interest rate shock, asset collapse shock, oil shock, and inflation shock. All attended by rampant denial. The major bonus this time around being epic hubris and sanctions. 

In summary, the masses believe they are witnessing the second collapse of the Soviet Union. However what they are really witnessing is the collapse of Globalization. 

In real-time. 

And soon, it won't only be Russian Oligarchs hiding their yachts.

FOMC: Fear Of Missing Crash

The Fed is on the verge of the biggest policy error in human history, aided and abetted by a cabal of salesmen who will NEVER admit it's the end of the cycle even when it's over. History will say that a global pandemic caused massive supply chain disruptions, punctuated by an end of cycle Energy shock that sent commodity prices sky-rocketing. Deja vu of 2008. Then the Fed raised rates because their "models" said they have no choice. And they triggered the global Minsky Moment. Fans of "low prices" are going to love it...

The Minsky Moment:

"Over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance. Furthermore, if an economy with a sizeable body of speculative financial units is in an inflationary state, and the authorities attempt to exorcise inflation by monetary constraint, then speculative units will become Ponzi units and the net worth of previously Ponzi units will quickly evaporate. Consequently, units with cash flow shortfalls will be forced to try to make position by selling out position. This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values"

First off, make no mistake this is a global asset meltdown in progress. Today was the biggest rally in almost two years (June 2020) due to short-covering ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting and the major U.S. CPI report. One pundit today recycled the theory that if you try to time the market you miss all of the best days. The only problem is that the biggest rallies are ALWAYs in bear markets. The biggest days in the past 14 years came in the Fall of 2008 when the market STILL had -40% to go to the bottom. The sheeple are now DOOMED by this type of Idiocratic logic.

Today was a bear market rally in an early stage bear market. 

Regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine, the super spike in commodities has served the purpose of boxing the Fed into only one course of action. Which means that barring meltdown between now and then, they are going to raise rates into the weakest market in 50 years. Something they've never tried before.

Here we see NYSE new lows as of yesterday's close compared to prior rate hike cycles. In December 2015 at the beginning of the last rate hiking cycle, after one rate hike global markets exploded. 

As of today's close there is STILL a 99.8% probability of rate hike next week, despite the threat of global nuclear war, demolition of Russia and Ukraine economies, and sky-rocketing gas prices in Europe.

For the record, Americans have the LOWEST gasoline prices in the developed world and yet still there is existential angst over these prices. Here are a handful of countries to compare against:

All of which means that we have reached peak inflation hysteria. 

This was today's headline in U.S.A. Today:

TOTAL disinformation

Nominal gas prices are higher than 2008. REAL gas prices are nowhere near 2008 levels:

Despite the millions of variables today's pundits like to throw at people, this has all become a very simple equation: Escalation of the war in Ukraine can now only serve to accelerate this meltdown. If the war ended tomorrow, oil would collapse and the rest of global risk assets would rally as they did today.

That is until next week when the Fed pulls the trigger. 

Oil has now become the Armageddon trade, which is why I'm not that bullish long-term.

Today was the LAST day for Quantitative Easing. The pandemic emergency inflation of asset bubbles is now officially OVER.

Just in time for new meltdown. 

There are of course two major differences between now and two years ago. First off, the Fed has ZERO room to go down on interest rates. Secondly of course, they are on a tightening path  which means they are several "meetings" away from contemplating market bailout.  

Nevertheless, mass complacency reigns supreme. Whereas during the past two market implosions the Fed was conducive to bailout, gamblers nevertheless hedged risk. This time, with no bailout on the horizon, they are taking no precautions. When everyone reaches for the sell button at the same time, there will be no one on the other side of the trade. We are headed for a ZERO liquidity global asset meltdown. 

You see, the passive money bubble doesn't believe in risk management. These people have been brainwashed into ignoring all risk. And therein lies the problem - without risk management, panic at lower levels is all but assured. 

And there is no way central banks can bailout everyone at the same time. 

In summary, forget about oil and inflation.

This is now the largest RATE SHOCK in U.S. history when measured on a relative basis. What took six years post-Lehman took six months post-pandemic: 

The global Minsky Moment has arrived. 

THE BREAKING POINT

A Black Swan nuclear event. What's not to like? Gamblers can finally say "No one saw it coming". And Wall Street now has  their excuse to bury clueless gamblers deep in end of cycle trades...

We are late in the crack up BOOM AND BUST. The only thing that can stop Fed-precipitated meltdown, is meltdown. Bulls are optimistic...

On the topic of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the only thing that's clear is that both countries are turning into failed states. Russia has become the new North Korea. We can pray that it doesn't turn nuclear but Putin is desperate and he may deploy a tactical nuke to keep NATO at bay.  

In the meantime, the nuclear economic option has now been deployed - a ban on Russian oil and gas. Today the White House announced the U.S. ban and Europe announced they will seek to ban a majority of Russia natural gas over the course of 2022.

In retaliation, Russia is threatening to cut-off ALL oil and gas to the West.

This is now officially the largest global Energy shock since 1973 when OPEC embargoed oil shipments to the West due to U.S. support for Israel during the Yom Kippur war. That event led to U.S. and global recession and the 1974 bear market. 

Going into this fiasco, the global economy was already facing tremendous end of cycle risk. So it's highly likely this event has pushed the global economy over the cliff.

Talk of recession is now circulating Wall Street desks, but so far that scenario has remained well out of the purview of Main Street investors who are now trapped in end of cycle trades. Wall Street is now free to say whatever they want to clients, because they can blame this "Black Swan" event for what comes next. 

Which is where this all gets interesting. 

For the moment, oil is the wrecking ball creating "demand destruction" across the entire economy. However, this event has teed up the U.S. to become the only safe haven on the planet.

Before this war started, China was already imploding due to their real estate meltdown and COVID zero tolerance policy. The PBOC has been in easing mode for several months.

Hong Kong stocks are now well below the COVID lows and totally bidless as one China policy has destroyed their status as a global financial center.

The European Central Bank which meets Thursday this week will likely return to a neutral stance as their Energy markets are massively exposed to this Russian oil embargo. European recession is now getting priced into markets as European stocks go bidless:

EM currencies, EM bonds, and EM stocks are all imploding due to the various meltdown factors and the rising $USD which I will discuss in a moment:

Next comes Japan. Normally, in a crisis scenario the Yen catches a massive bid due to the global carry trade unwind. However, this time the Yen remains weak due to the commodity shock and the record trade deficit. Which is why there is now a massive policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan. 

Shock Commodities Spike Threatens to Push Yen to Six-Year Low - Bloomberg

"No chance monetary easing will be reduced"

Normally in a commodity super cycle Canada and Australia would be massively outperforming. So far their stock markets are holding up better than most. However, currency wise we now see a massive disconnect between the C$ and oil. This is further indication that oil is totally disconnected from global economic growth. This is the largest divergence we've seen since 2008 and we see how that worked out for oil:

All of which means that the U.S. is the ONLY safe haven left in the world. Which is why the dollar is rising in lockstep with this parabolic ascent in oil. 

Whereas oil is currently the global wrecking ball, soon the $USD will become the REAL global wrecking ball. Oil has boxed the Fed into tightening. So either something breaks THIS week due to oil. Or something is going to break NEXT week due to the Fed. The only thing that will stop meltdown is meltdown. 

Dollar funding stress is already showing up in global markets this week:

Funding Stress Indicator Surges to Widest Levels Since May 2020 - Bloomberg

"The fear that the impact of the war will create a dollar shortage is rippling through the system"

What would a dollar super spike do to all of the above markets? 

In particular it will implode oil, gold, and Emerging Markets post haste. Followed by massive global deflation. 

This Thursday we get another CPI report which is expected to run hot. 

At least bulls can honestly claim no one saw it coming.

Again.

 

The MAXIMUM MELTDOWN Hypothesis

The COVID pandemic was the excuse for inflating human history's largest asset bubble, which is now imploding. Now the war in Ukraine is concealing the end of the cycle as commodities go late stage parabolic. Rampant fools are incapable of making the connection between today's risks. Which is why we face a 1970s oil shock, a 1998 Russian debt default, a Y2K Tech meltdown, a 2015 Emerging Market implosion, AND a 2008-era Fed more concerned about inflation than risk. Putin's economic warfare strategy is M.A.D.: Mutual Assured Destruction...

Every economist knows that inflation peaks at the end of the cycle. That's Econ 101. Bottlenecks accumulate during the expansion and reach their peak late in the cycle. The COVID pandemic exacerbated these bottlenecks due to the global supply chain disruption which cleared out store inventories. During the lockdown consumers switched from buying services to buying durable goods. The inventory logjam caused corporations to move away from the "just in time" inventory model back to stock-piling inventories which has kept the ports backlogged with shipments due to double ordering. 

On the labor side, three million Boomers left the workforce amid 20 million layoffs. Per tradition, the U.S. laid off far more workers during the pandemic than any other developed nation. TWENTY years of employment was lost in early 2020.

"It's much harder for workers in their 50s and 60s — or older — to re-enter the workforce after a period of unemployment, due to persistent ageism in corporate America"

So it's likely that many of those who left jobs got discouraged and chose to retire instead"

Now employers are crying that they can't find enough workers. Does anyone remember the paycheck protection program? It PAID payroll costs for employees so they wouldn't have to lay off workers. Free money. And yet, they still laid everyone off. 

Every investor should know that commodities peak at the end of the cycle. They are a late cycle trade. If you see commodities leading, you can be sure that the Fed is raising rates and recession risk is rising. 

And yet, Wall Street is currently pushing their clients into all of these end of cycle dead end trades.

Case in point mining stocks, which exhibit a perfect corrective wave form vis-a-vis the 2008 high:

Same with wheat. It's corrective. NOT a new bull market.

Oil is three decade overbought and the most volatile since 2008, because the West is now moving towards a potential FULL embargo on Russian oil. The net effect would cause a super spike in oil prices with risk assets heading in the opposite direction. Such a disastrous move would accelerate financial meltdown beyond its current widely ignored pace. 

"Oil from Russia will be foreclosed from the global market here at some point and we are already seeing commercial activity reduced, particularly as it relates to Russia exports via maritime assets and that is already hitting the market...“These are barrels that we cannot make up, so that’s why this market is on tenterhooks”

Optimists are calling the net result of this total disaster "stagflation", meaning slow global growth and high inflation. It's their way of locating the pony in the horse shit.

However, these limp dick cassandras can't bring themselves to look into the abyss staring back at them. They too are ignoring the risk of outright deflationary collapse. No one uses the word recession anymore, much less depression which is where this is all VERY obviously heading. 

For a while, bullish pundits got away with ignoring all of the growing risk, but this week risks crossed into the red zone. In addition, to all of the above risks, Russian default is now on the table.

"The Russian state is set to fail to pay foreign bondholders a coupon due on a bond for the first time since 1998"

“They clearly see this as an economic war, and this is their way of striking out at foreigners”

Indeed. 

Putin's goal was to lure the hubristic West into an economic war they have no chance of winning. So far his plan is working great. His timing could not have been better. The dominoes were already falling and his war has accelerated the collapse.

This week, Nasdaq lows (8 week average) highest since...

1998:

Now all we need is a TOTALLY clueless Federal Reserve. Which we got during two Congressional testimonies this week as J. Powell confirmed the Fed will be raising rates in March. In addition, balance sheet reduction is on the table when tapering ends this month. 

For gamblers who are now trapped in end of cycle inflation trades, this is for YOU:

Living Large In Artificial Paradise

This society strives for artificial happiness, and wonders why no one is happy...

Globalization is on the ropes. First came 2008 and the Global Financial Crisis. What followed was a decade of continual monetary bailouts for the ultra-wealthy. That gambit led directly to Trump and Brexit at the forefront of the new Anti-Globalization movement. Then came the pandemic. At each stage, political acrimony has increased and the "system" has grown weaker. What we learn from democracy is that it works great until you need leadership. Two opposing forces in a political civil war are anything but leadership. At the State of the Union, half the audience were giving a standing ovation, while the other half were fuming. None of our larger problems will get addressed at the ballot box. Which is why the competing political news stations have turned into a Roman spectacle.

The main problem is that this ad-sponsored society can't tell good change from bad change anymore. For that we can thank corporate CEOs whose sole job is to inform us that ALL change is "good". Unfortunately, that is far from the truth. Most change is highly profitable but far from good for society. Case in point this Tech oligarchy which has given us artificial intelligence in exchange for the real one, rendering society as dumb as a brick. Or the boxes of frankenfood on sale while the cost of real food goes up 5x. Opioids to euthanize a lifetime of bad health choices. 

And yet despite being the prime beneficiaries of their global monopoly, the CEOs and their corporations get a free pass under this current model. Until that monopoly is broken, nothing will get better whether on the economy or the environment. It's far too easy for corporations to move from one country to the next arbitraging differentials in employee wages, taxes, and environmental/trade laws. Demolishing small businesses and employees as they go.

All of which results in increasing stagnation at the zero bound. 

Structural DEFLATION.

What we are witnessing at the moment is end of cycle inflation cleverly disguising secular Global deflation. A collapsed middle class leveraged to the maximum struggling with a post-pandemic supply chain bottleneck. It's only sustainable if one believes that wages will continue rising. If not, then it will all turn back into a pumpkin at the zero bound deja vu of 2008.

The conservative business news can take FULL credit for spreading inflation hysteria far and wide. As Biden said last night, we want higher wages not higher costs. Unfortunately, for CEOs, wages ARE higher costs. We cannot continue to increase corporate profit margins to record levels if we're paying higher wages. Hence, J. Powell is tasked right now to solely focus on inflation while ignoring the record risks accumulating in the background.

The Fed is making the EXACT same mistake they made in September 2008 when they ignored the burgeoning banking meltdown and instead focused solely on inflation.

Oil volatility in this rally is now the highest since September 2008.

 

To up the ante even more, there are now home bidding wars in my neighbourhood for the first time since 2007. Far too long ago for people to remember how that ended. Once the sheeple heard that interest rates are rising, they were told they better buy a house NOW before rates go up. And that set off another epic home buying spree. I could throw up some charts on the topic, but the National Association of Realtors locked down their historical database. You can't get data further back than 2020 because they don't want us to see how far today's hockey stick in home sales is above the historical trendline. 

No discussion of Globalization would be complete without mention of the nascent WWIII taking place in Ukraine. Russia has now been effectively cut off from the global financial system. Which means that the dollar-based global trading system just took another step lower in terms of its long-term viability. What country that might in the future run afoul of the U.S. and its vassal allies would now trust the dollar reserve system? No one. 

Not to say I support this invasion of Ukraine by any means. However, if the standard for financial cut-off was based solely upon illegal invasions, the U.S. would have been cut-off decades ago.

Be that as it may, I am not predicting the dollar is at risk of imminent demise, however the global trading system backing the dollar IS at danger of imminent dislocation. And when that happens there will be a long-term re-evaluation as to the value of printed money as foreign exchange reserves. 

Needless to say, those who have grown comfortable with the current paradigm will find this to be a "jarring" event, to say the least.

Their wellspring of artificial happiness is set to explode. 

We have now entered the no bailout zone. And contrary to ubiquitous belief in the Fed and Congress and Faux News, it's not 1979 anymore.