Truth Or Consequences

Everyone has the choice to reject or believe in this con job. You either believe in personal agency or you don't. Those who don't, traffic in central planning Kool-Aid of the sort we see now. Most people are not "capitalists", they are opportunistic bailout whores. It no longer matters who created this economic fiasco, EVERYONE who believes in it is along for the ride. We are past the point of "right" and "wrong", we are now at the point of truth or consequences...

Predicting the future is always murky, however predicting future-based themes is where I am going with this post. Predicting a happy ending for Disney World with sheer over-confidence I leave to today's salesmen.

Start with the fact that this Coronavirus was truly a black swan event. It was wholly unpredictable and unprecedented. And yet, many prognosticators had been telling us all along that we should expect what just happened. Meaning that we were totally unprepared for something that should have been expected. Because that's how we roll baby.

My first major assertion is that Globalization is now officially over. It collapsed in 2008, but then it was bailed out with printed money for another decade. These last few years saw Brexit, Trump, trade wars, global nationalism, and now this pandemic. 

I have to believe that in America's heyday, this virus would have been a speed bump along the way to prosperity. Consider that during World War II, America's civilian factories were wholly repurposed from consumer goods to war manufactures literally overnight. No big deal. Rationing was the order of the day. People made sacrifices.

Now however, this virus has exposed Globalization's latent fragilities. Laying bare all of the imbalances that go into making this Ponzi model appear to work. As I said two posts ago, the credit bubble is now on the verge of exploding. It can't take this level of demand collapse. These fiscal and monetary bailouts primarily for the rich, have done nothing to offset extreme deflation arising from millions of people losing their jobs per week. And today's record jobless claims figure doesn't account for gig workers now unemployed en masse, waitresses who get fractional unemployment benefits, sole proprietors who get nothing, and of course the undocumented workers, without whom the U.S. economy couldn't exist. All now income-less. 

My next assertion is that the age of Trump is over. His entire platform which was based upon fooling people into believing this is the greatest economy and stock market ever, imploded overnight. It took three weeks to erase three years of Trump gains in the Dow. 

I'm not blaming Trump for this virus - he handled it in his signature fashion, entirely incompetently. We had ZERO warning that the economy was shutting down. One day he was calling it a hoax, the next day he told mid-size Mormon families their dinners are now illegal. I said I wouldn't panic until they shut down the Waffle House, well now I'm panicking. 

Over time Trump will just become more and more of a liability to the party that elected him. All of the above is ALREADY baked into the cake, and evident to anyone who is not a hardcore denialist. Which is why most people don't acknowledge it's already over.

Which gets us to the future, and the changes in social norms that will follow from this "event". 

First off, consider how we "emerge" from this crisis. Trump has one timeline in mind, while every state governor has their own idea of when this will end. All have a different future date in mind. Meanwhile, young people will break the quarantine ahead of everyone else. I am referring to those in the 15-30 year old category. The invincible youth who don't know why we were hiding from the flu in the first place. Do you know how many ragers we missed on account of this bullshit? On the other hand, the immuno-compromised and elderly may not re-emerge until the vaccine arrives. Which means that best case scenario, this bifurcated economy lasts a full year or more:

"Currently, most medical and public health experts say we're at least 12 to 18 months away from having a usable vaccine against COVID-19."


Which means that this reset will accelerate the demise of weak industries, in particular Mall Retail, Fossil Fuel Energy, and Tourism. 

The unemployment rate a year from now will be "large" to say the least. And the funny money will be flowing like a river.

All of this turmoil will force lifestyle change, meaning deleveraging, downsizing, homemade solutions, DIY etc. People will learn how to cook again. Grow a garden. Sew a button, fix a lawnmower, use a lawnmower etc.

Branching into the more nebulous, I believe people will begin to self-educate. They will come to realize that the University higher education cartel is a colossal failure. Both economically and educationally. It's cheaper and easier to just read a book than to cram theoretical bullshit in between drunken frat parties. And then graduate bankrupt. 

Which gets us to the defense budget. Part of acknowledging "this" is over, will be to recall troops from 145 countries and call it a day. Defund the military industrial complex and otherwise funnel the resources back into the domestic economy.

In summary, it's already over. Those who don't acknowledge these facts are going to learn the hard way when they find out that not all fairy tales are true. And the Dow is NOT in a new bull market.

BTFD: Buy The Fucking Depression

The Coronavirus has served its purpose of disguising nascent depression, as gamblers now believe this is a v-shaped buying opportunity. The super stimulus locks them in for the elevator ride lower. Gamblers are being told this is their last chance to get in, when it's very likely their last chance to get out.

What we are witnessing is natural selection at its finest...

Deja vu, I just posted what billionaire Paul Tudor Jones said about this week's thermonuclear stimulus package in my prior post about MMT. 

This is what he was saying a few months ago before Mike Santoli claimed that "no one saw it coming":

November 2019:

“We’ve got an explosive combination of monetary and fiscal policy right now. We’ve got a 5% budget deficit coupled with the lowest real rates that you can image with the economy at full employment. That’s the most unorthodox, and potentially explosive, combination that you can imagine."


The Coronavirus rally culminated in late February 2020 long after the virus had spread worldwide. The ultimate explosion was the fastest and most devastating crash in U.S. history. Twice as fast as 1929.

Now, today, the Dow is enjoying a third day of gains (so far) based upon the worst jobless claims number in U.S. history without any comparison:

Despite these depressionary numbers, the belief in a v-shaped recovery is ubiquitous. The Coronavirus has led today's pundits to believe that the nascent depression is temporary:

"Speaking with NBC's "Today" program, Fed Chair Powell also said the U.S. economy likely already is in recession, but noted that activity could rebound in the second half of the year if the spread of the coronavirus is quickly brought under control."


Fifty years of weekly jobless claims:

Here we see the % declines by market sector, which gives lie to any v-shaped recovery. The Energy sector was already reeling from over-capacity, the OPEC oil war, and of course the ESG divestment movement. Airlines just got pounded similar to 9/11 when many of them went bankrupt. The same will happen now. Hotels and hospitality are not coming back any time soon. No one is going to buy a new home in this environment. Banks are under-capitalized for this type of event AS ALWAYS. Auto loans were already going bad prior to this crisis. Retail closures were at a record prior to this crisis, this will put many of the remaining chains at risk. Industrials and global trade were already in recession from the trade war. What's holding up on a relative basis are recession stocks and the Tech bubble.

Today's jobless claims are very likely minor compared to what is coming. What we see above is the FIRST week of layoffs following Trump's shutdown of the economy.

Trump is now panicking to get the economy restarted and for once I agree with him. I get that some people are going to die. People die every day. McDonald's kills more people every hour than Coronavirus kills in a month.

What they should do is shut down McDonald's for six months and bring everything else back online. Save millions of lives. But of course these morons did the exact opposite - shut down real restaurants and kept McDonald's drive thru open:

If today's comfort seekers had ANY clue what is now at stake, they would not be considering this to be just an extended vacation. The people who are right now arguing to keep this shutdown going indefinitely are NOT the people who have been so far affected by this quarantine. They still have THEIR jobs. Nevertheless, they are the people who are next to get wiped out when they realize this is not a v shaped buying opportunity.

That's just my opinion. I could be wrong about this, but I doubt it. The economic impacts of this pandemonium will far outweigh the health impacts. 

The one benefit of this super stimulus is that it will likely keep Trump Casino open a few weeks longer. Full disclosure I have no positions long or short in stocks. Nevertheless, here is an update on Trump Casino:


As of yesterday's mega rally, the S&P is now one month overbought. Today's rally will likely take it back to multi-month overbought:

We need to keep this mega stimulus rally in perspective relative to the technical damage inflicted by nine 90% down days in one month on MASSIVE volume. 

While we're here, let's take another look at Tech, prime beneficiary of BTFD:

"For the most part the secular growth theme has held up well since the S&P 500 index SPX, 3.803% peaked on Feb. 19, unlike the second half of 2018, when recession fears caused equity investors to briefly abandon this theme"

In other words, professional gamblers were more concerned about recession in 2018 than they are today. Why? Because in 2018 the Fed dopium was tightening while today it's at level '11' maximum.

In summary, gamblers have been told to ride out the depression, and that's what they plan to do:

MMT: Modern Monetary Thermonuclear Explosion

In 2019, combined fiscal (5%) and monetary (5%) stimulus equaled 10% of GDP, compliments of Trump's deficit which caused the overnight repo crisis. In 2020, fiscal policy (15%) and monetary policy (unknown) will likely approach 30% of GDP, as the Fed is once again forced to monetize the entire deficit. Position accordingly...

On the face of it, most pundits would view this amount of monetized stimulus to be unambiguously inflationary. And they would be right, IF we were not living in human history's largest credit bubble. As always, economics comes down to sorting out first order and second order effects. Which are often going in opposite directions. As the Fed goes forward with mainlining printed money straight into the economy, all of today's pundits are ignoring the 800 pound elephant in the room, the credit bubble.

Will creditors be willing to accept future payment in lower valued dollars due to inflation? No. They will demand a higher interest rate, across all credit markets. Once, again, as it was with the tax cut, interest rates will rise. I am not referring to the Fed rate, I am referring to market rates. 

In other words, by conjoining fiscal and monetary policy, the Fed just handed control of monetary policy to Trump. Meaning there is no control. From this point forward, the rate of inflation will dictate monetary policy. Which is another way of saying that the monetized deficit will cause interest rates to rise and thereby tighten financial conditions.

At some point the effects of monetized fiscal stimulus will entirely cancel out the effects of monetary stimulus. In a debt laden economy, this will ultimately be highly deflationary. Most people's incomes are leveraged multiple times via the debt markets. Meaning that a sudden rise in borrowing costs will cause a sudden rise in mass defaults.

What the Fed has done is pushed off the threat of Coronavirus defaults and merely delayed them until the monetary go juice works its way into the veins of the economy. Recall, the tax cut of 2018 dumped the S&P 500 -20% by the end of the year, for the exact same reason - an increase in reflation expectations.

By going down this new path of easy money, the Fed has replaced real demand from incomes with printed money. The overall supply of goods has not changed. The first order effects of this Coronavirus are highly deflationary. The second order effects coming after will be reflationary. However, it's at that point, when market interest rates will begin to rise beyond the Fed's control. Between rising defaults and rising interest rates, the credit markets will get obliterated.

Here below I show an approximated sequencing of events with ballpark timelines. We are right now in the most deflationary period in U.S. history. Whenever this quarantine ends, there will be aftershocks in the form of layoffs and defaults. In the background the stimulus package will begin to take effect. However, it will likely prove inadequate and require additional extreme stimulus. At some point stocks will have a tradeable rally long before the economy turns around. Perhaps in a matter of weeks from now. There will be no one saying "BTFD" when the tradeable bottom arrives. 

When the economy does finally bottom months or even a year from now, the incipient reflation will cause interest rates to explode higher. Between defaults and rate increases, the bond bubble will final implode. 

The fool's rally will end. Post haste. Having nuked the bond market, they will proceed to nuke the dollar. 

The Best Sugar Rally Record Plunder Could Buy

Capitalism is now wholly dependent upon socialism, for the rich. Which obviously proves which system is better. Today's bailout whores are praying that biblical plundering of future generations will save them from meeting inconvenient reality for the first time in their Disney lives. Fortunately, no one squanders borrowed money better than Trump...

The largest fiscal bailout in U.S. history just passed the Senate last night. Which brings the combined fiscal and monetary stimulus injection to level '11' full crack high, for those keeping track at home. As usual, everyone got bailed out except the people who need to get bailed out...

This is the Fed bazooka in visual perspective:

Weekly monetary injection:

Here we see the fiscal insanity that was just passed late last night:

Today's bailout whores are praying that this biblical profligacy is adequate to support the casino at these levels. Because as we see, the Dow was "saved" at critical MAGA support.

Trump's presidency is now at stake. 

Capitalism is now 100% dependent upon socialism. For the rich. 

Taking all of the above into account, there is only one glaring problem: While the economy is in unprecedented shutdown mode, the small businesses that actually need support the most, can't get it. It's all well and good to hand out "stimulus" checks, but it's meaningless if people are barred from frequenting local businesses. Which means that the money will get plowed into paying bills and paying down debt. And of course Amazon.com, the greatest beneficiary of this entire debacle.

In other words, the GDP multiplier of this latest bailout will be the limit approaching zero. Which is why deflation will continue to grow unchecked with every passing day.

Based upon the sheer magnitude of stimulus, this rally SHOULD by all rights last for days if not weeks. However, if it rolls over sooner rather than later it will be deja vu of the TARP rally in 2008 - too little too late.

So far, this rally has been led by the most beaten down sectors, including small caps, banks, transports, industrials, hotels etc.

Breadth is very strong.

What the bulls should be worrying about however, is the fact that Tech is lagging. Which means that the Tech bubble is at risk of final explosion.

Here we see Microsoft is clinging to the 200 day moving average.

Semiconductors and Chinese Tech stocks are trading in unison on the hourly. This rally is now one week old:

Here we see EM Debt with semiconductors in the background. Global risk is trading like one big brick.

In summary, this is the best sugar rally several trillion dollars could buy. Today's policy-makers don't have control, they have the illusion of control. Nevetheless, today's trapped gamblers believe their massive bailout will work.

Of course, if they are wrong, the level of fear and panic will be on a scale we've never seen before.

It's Not Too Late To Buy Gold. It's Too Early

Acknowledging the fact that gold is more of a religion than an asset class, here goes anyways. Bearing in mind this does NOT constitute financial advice...

Full disclosure, I just re-loaded my short gold via put options through April 17th, until I cash out, or until they close the casino. Whichever comes first. We heard the exact same arguments in favor of owning gold two weeks ago but I ignored them in favour of a 10x profit. Now gold has round tripped back to the recent highs. Offering another fat pitch. The only concern I have is that they will shutdown Trump Casino. 

Zerohedge: Gold Is Like Toilet Paper. If You Don't Have Any, You Will Be Very Unhappy


Where to begin. First off, physical gold IS like toilet paper - there is a short-term shortage, however in the longer-term there is a glut hanging over the market in the form of jewelry. A mere trickle of what is soon to come.

February 29th, 2020:
"Over the last few weeks, gold buyers have seen a frantic push by individuals racing to sell their little-used jewelry in the U.S. and Europe amid worries that the extraordinary price rally fueled by the coronavirus since the start of the year may soon run its course."



For those who own physical gold for the long-term, this will be the fantastic buying opportunity of a lifetime. A chance to keep averaging down lower and lower. I view gold to be the ULTIMATE belief in central bank alchemy. And of course I have absolutely ZERO faith in central banks' ability to solve this crisis. To understand my prediction for gold is to understand my entire economic hypothesis of impending extreme deflation.

It's ironic that this last stage gold rally is occurring amid the backdrop of a severe dollar shortage worldwide. One that has been well documented on Zerohedge. It's a known fact that gold trades inverse to the dollar and that very same negative correlation has been intact for the past several weeks. In other words, a bet on gold here is a bet that the Fed has the dollar liquidity crisis under control. They don't. It's about to get 10x worse, as Emerging Market currencies explode in every direction.


But, it's the gold technicals where things get really interesting:

Gold tanked in early March and then found a bottom last Monday (March 16th) following the Fed's QE announcement. Just as I said three weeks ago, it's a supremely crowded trade based on futures net specs, record ETF inflows, and of course non-top Zerohedge bullshit. Recall that the selloff two weeks ago was attributed to over-leveraged gamblers forced to sell gold to meet Tesla margin calls. A mere hint at what is about to come. 

Here we see gold on a weekly basis. The chart shows that gold is three wave corrective off of the 2011 all time high. We also see that gold volatility is extreme right now. A trip back to these key support levels will give physical gold buyers plenty of opportunity to average down. Which according to Zerohedge is what they want:

I have three criteria before I will be a buyer of gold:

1) All of the highly leveraged weak hands get margined out. Zerohedge stops spamming me with gold ads

2) The credit markets final explode under the weight of crushing defaults, bringing about extreme deflation

3) Policy-makers stop bailing out corporations and begin to consider serious middle class heli money. Something only Bernie Sanders has suggested to date. 


Getting back to Trump Casino, having predicted Super Crash in real-time, nevertheless, for the first time in a very long time, I am becoming neutral on my market opinion. I still believe it will go much lower, however, my trademark hyper-bearishness has abated for some reason. I think it has something to do with the collapsed carbon levels.

That said, the raw facts point to an impending super explosion lower in Emerging Markets which are sans bailout and evidencing greater dollar financing strains by the minute. In my opinion this latest S&P rally lasted just long enough to get more dolts onboard for the ride lower.

On the topic of today's Super Tuesday rally, I would note that the peak Casino high water mark of every week since this Super Crash began was Tuesday. This is not a prediction, merely an observation:

In summary, I hope everyone has enough toilet paper for what comes next. Because you never want to wipe your ass with a gold bar. 

Bailout Deathtrap

Surveying the carnage across markets, it's clear that the Fed and Trump have done a great job of maintaining complacency while investors are lowered into the abyss. MAGA Kingdom policy-makers have only one more weapon in their arsenal: Non-stop lying. And they are using it to full effect...

Anyone who trusts these people deserves their certain fate:


-30% later: "My bad"

These two headlines on CNBC from this afternoon sum up the ongoing Fed debacle  - despite "unlimited" stimulus the market is going down at the fastest pace in history, the only benefit being that euthanized gamblers still believe in bailouts. 

After last week's EPIC and humiliating fail, including a 1% rate cut and record liquidity, the Fed realized they have lost control over the casino. So this morning (Monday), they ramped the S&P futures by announcing they will do whatever it takes. It's the crowning achievement of a decade of intellectual bankruptcy. Sponsored by the ubiquitous belief that printed money is the secret to effortless wealth:

This latest bailout "rally" was deja vu of the emergency rate cut on March 3rd. It lasted all of :15 minutes. The Dow and S&P closed at new lows.

This moment of Fed panic was inevitable and predictable. Last night, 2008 bailout king Neel Kashkari brazenly stated that the Fed has unlimited money printing powers. Clearly no one who once believed they are the master of the universe wants to learn that they have been cleaved of all powers. 

We need to remember that the Fed and its cohort central banks drove a massive gap between asset valuations and economic reality going into this Corona disaster. It was such a good con job that according to Mike Santoli, no one saw this coming. It was the crowning achievement of modern alchemy. Therefore, with global markets crashing at the fastest rate in history, they have every intention of keeping that gap from ever closing.

Of course it's not working. 

The Fed's sole achievement to date is to sponsor extreme complacency in the face of ongoing meltdown. Every time they come up with a new gimmick the market ends lower. It speaks to the desperate intellectual bankruptcy of the day, that anyone would believe that artificially inflating asset values while their intrinsic values crash, is a good idea.

What happened to worker paychecks? What happened to real demand, unadulterated by Ponzi debt and low interest rate gimmicks? A relic of a bygone era.

Sadly, the Fed can't rescue "stocks" while their real values head to zero. Most people are of the belief that stock values are indicated by the last price paid for them, when in fact the underlying values are dictated by their forward earnings. If earnings crash to zero as they are now, then the price of stocks will soon follow. No amount of S&P futures manipulation will keep that from happening.

Extending out to other asset classes, the story gets far worse. The Fed can't corner every market on the planet. They have officially started buying in the corporate bond and muni markets, but in those markets they will merely be price takers watching their portfolio of junk assets crash to zero. They haven't figured out that buying assets in secondary markets doesn't make those assets have greater value, it merely means the Fed is now the bagholder of last resort while smart money stampedes out the open door.

Does this look like they are fixing the credit markets?

"We will do whatever it takes"

Also today, a second Senate bailout vote failed. However, as I've said these bailouts for corporations will do nothing to save the actual economy. 

At this point, nothing the government does is going to save the economy. We are heading into depression, and the only thing policy-makers can do now is alleviate poverty and suffering.

Anything else they do is a waste of time and money.

The stock market is toast. It won't be a good "value" until it declines at least -80% from the all time high in my opinion, given the amount of economic carnage taking place.

I throw that out merely as a ballpark placeholder to say that at best we are halfway to the bottom. I believe that a large portion of the S&P 500 will be bankrupt by the end of this year. Which means stock holders will be wiped out.

Deflation is flooding the world and it's totally out of control. Policy-makers are out of conventional and non-conventional ammo. Next they will be forced to consider MASSIVE heli money for the masses. The current bill now stalled in the Senate is chump change compared to what will be needed. 

Until that happens ALL asset prices are heading lower. Maybe not every day, but certainly on a long-term basis.

The Fed as of today is not only out of ammo, they are totally out of credibility. The belief that they could control asset prices in divergence from the underlying economy went on for a decade straight. But now the divergence is accelerating to the downside taking gamblers for a ride to the bottom.

The Last Days Of Bailout Capitalism

Capitalism exploded spectacularly in 2008, you should have seen it. Whatever they call this system of  bailing out criminals is the next to explode...

The seeds of this crisis were sown back during the depths of the global financial crisis when a stunned and fearful populace turned a blind eye to bailouts for criminals and allowed corporate shock doctrine on a massive scale, in order to "save the system". In the event, no one was held accountable for massive amounts of fraud and criminality. Which is why during the past ten years, fraud and criminality became business as usual. Today's historical illiterates have not even the slightest clue how Darwinian the U.S. economy has become over the past several decades. Still sniffing the glue of American mythology, while getting fucked over the exact same way as last time.

The story of this past decade will be one of persistent poverty-driven deflation emanating from a collapse in the labor share of GDP post-2008. Otherwise known as the worst economy in U.S. history. A surfeit of low wage junk jobs, nominal benefits, zero job security, and no career upside. The wholesale commodification of labor to the benefit of offshore bank accounts. Each successive round of shock doctrine drove the country further to the right, further towards the corporation, further towards profit. This past decade was a bonanza of insider stock buyback cash outs financed with record low interest rates. 

Now, however, corporations are record leveraged. Which is why they are already laying off workers en masse. This shutdown is only days old, yet they are not waiting around to see how it turns out. In other words, untold numbers of companies have already made the calculation that they would rather layoff their workforce than weather a few weeks of no revenue. 

And of course in the United States, there is no penalty for mass layoffs, so they took the easiest course of action. In other countries, based upon an employee's tenure, companies must pay mandatory severance pay for layoffs. Which makes it far more difficult for companies to lay people off at the drop of a hat. 

Nevertheless, in panicking en masse, U.S. companies have succeeded in making the overall demand collapse far worse and far more intractable. In the mind's of today's pundits, these companies will merely turn around and rehire everyone back a few weeks from now. That isn't what's going to happen. U.S. companies are far quicker to lay off than they are to rehire. Earnings visibility is currently nil and getting worse by the day. So these companies won't begin rehiring any time soon. If ever. Regardless, most large corporations are too heavily leveraged to be saved, which is why bailouts of corporations are a total waste of money. They need to be recapitalized. They are zombie companies now and bailing them out will only make things far worse. ALL of their cash flow will go to debt service. Zero investment.

What I am describing is what Federal Reserve governors are seeing all across the country - a total collapse in demand. Which is why companies are panicking, because they know their balance sheets are now ticking time bombs. And yet with every mass layoff, the duration of this GDP depression grows longer. What one company does to save itself appears as prudent capitalism, however, when they all do it at the same time it's an epic disaster.

"If his gloomy jobs projection proves to be true, unemployment would be worse than it was during the Great Depression and three times worse than the 2007-’09 recession"

With the appropriate measures, Bullard said he’s looking for activity to rebound quickly."

In other words, he is predicting a v-bottom from a one quarter depression. Which isn't going to happen. This virus merely got the ball rolling on corporate defaults which were already teetering on the brink of insolvency. This got the dominoes falling. Millions of over-leveraged consumers are one paycheck away from insolvency. Trump's mega deficit was the only thing keeping the U.S. out of recession in 2019. 

In the future, corporations need to be adequately "incentivized" to maintain adequate contingency buffers for short-term downturns - plans that don't involve mass layoffs at the drop of a hat. IF this really was only a few week crisis, as so many believe it is, then in a properly functioning economy there is no way it should lead to 30% unemployment. Which shows how non-resilient the U.S. economy has become, that we are already facing 3 million layoffs in only one week of shutdown. 

Unfortunately, it has become far too easy and cost free for companies to jettison their workforce at the slightest downturn, while putting all of the costs on the public social system. The same system they have fought to eliminate. Thanks to Bush and Trump, most of these companies no longer pay any taxes, so they are net takers from the U.S. economy.

ALL bailout efforts should focus on small business and laid off employees. I have no doubt that this turn of ideology is coming sooner rather than later. And it will be laced with more than a significant amount of rage. How they quarantine rioting will be an interesting challenge.

Just know it's coming.


Getting back to the casino, Senate discussions on the fiscal bailout collapsed late on Sunday because Democrats are insisting on more money for families and less for corporate bailout whores. The Republicans want the opposite.

As it was last Monday, the futures opened limit down, however, this time they are bouncing off the limit. IF the TARP bailout circa 2008 fiasco plays out again, the market will tank tomorrow morning and then rally into the inevitable "deal". At which time the market will explode lower. If the casino is still open by the end of this week, I would be surprised. They will give it just enough enough time out for everyone to realize this is a new depression with no v-bottom in sight.

And then you will see biblical panic, when the sheeple realize they squandered a decade of their lives bailing out criminals, and then got bilked all over again by the exact same people.