Final Countdown

Super Clown is the Jim Jones of our time. He convinced millions if not billions of useful idiots to drink the Kool-Aid. The sum total of four decades of Banana Republican criminality - ignorant, arrogant, morally dead, intellectually void, determined to self-destruct. A biblical Anti-Christ with a purpose. The Trump carbon tax is due...

Donny's re-election Super Bubble is now of a magnitude large enough to explode his presidency. The entire Republican party. And all of his criminal accomplices who contributed to his 2020 Manhattan re-election project. 

Trinity is ready for detonation:

This is the largest Financial Weapon of Mass Destruction in human history without any comparison. It combines ALL of the features from the prior test implosions into one massive Super Bomb.

It embeds a Y2K Tech bubble featuring four MAGA stocks accounting for unprecedented percent of market performance.

It has a record corporate credit bubble now being imploded in real-time by Corona hysteria. Panicked shoppers emptying out Costco over a virus weaker than the common flu.

A pandemic of morons.

The unforeseen side effect of a useful corporate Idiocracy subject to mass panic and stampede.

It has a Chinese economic meltdown deja vu of 2015

Trump's Idiocracy is celebrating the monetization of poverty

It has an embedded index super bubble, featuring an ever-growing universe of ETFs. Which flash crashed in 2010 and again in 2015. Five years later the number of ETFs has grown even larger to a point that Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame warned that it is set to explode.

It's the new subprime:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/278249/global-number-of-etfs/

It embeds an obligatory oil/commodity implosion deja vu of 2016:

Now, over the weekend a new oil war has broken out between Saudi Arabia and Russia with the real intended target the U.S. shale sector.

And yet crude oil speculators ended the week STILL net bullish:

Of course it was Trump's tax cut and mega deficit that created the Repo crisis late last summer when the debt ceiling was lifted. Record treasury issuance imploded the repo market:

August 2019:

The repo liquidity crisis has only worsened in the meantime. 

March 3rd, 2020:
Fed Sees Huge Demand for Repos; Tuesday Operations Total $120 Billion

"Big banks’ demand for temporary liquidity exceeds limit"

Remember when Republicans held Obama's budget hostage back in 2011 because they were pretending to care about the deficit? In the event, they forced a U.S. debt downgrade for the first time in history. They only backed off when the S&P collapsed -20%.

Well, this is payback:

And of course it has a volatility trigger deja vu of 2018 which STILL hasn't been triggered.

YET.

It has all of the features one would want to see in a Financial Super Bomb, all rolled into one.

This one even has some features that we've NEVER seen before. Some things only Jim Jones could accomplish.

First off, it has mass complacency on an epic scale.

Secondly, and even more amazing given the amount of rampant complacency, it has NO stimulus safety net for the first time in U.S. history.

Donny has somehow convinced the masses to sky-dive without a parachute.

The same way Jim Jones convinced hundreds to drink the Kool-Aid. Trump has pulled off the same feat.

On a biblical scale.

Of course he had ample assistance from the same accomplices as last times.

Shanghai Surprise

We live in a mindless corporate Borg programmed from birth to self-destruct. For fun and quarterly profit...

Shanghai Surprise is the moment when a generation of idiots realizes that printed money is not the secret to effortless wealth. Japan has learned this lesson, and so has China. Now it's America's turn.

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.  The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

- Ludwig von Mises

This is not sooner.

Corporations have cultivated a useful Idiocracy to be harvested at their disposal, and now we are seeing the full effect.

An American obesity rate twice the OECD average and corporate healthcare profiteering twice the OECD average have yielded to an inevitable opioid overdose crisis, driven by Big Pharma cashing in on lethal painkillers. Corporate euthanasia.

Central banks have put their own euthanasia to work in Financial markets via lethal doses of monetary dopium. Gamblers are so stoned they viewed the Corona plague as a buying opportunity:

February 21st:

"You would think that the coronavirus concerns gripping China (and the world) would cause massive panic and fear in stock prices. And it sure felt like they were... for a moment at least. But it didn't last long.

Instead, the U.S. market hit new all-time highs just a week after bottoming. And it has continued higher since.

This, my friend, is the Melt Up."

The Corona melt-up was the Imagined Reality of 2020. The moment when global collapse was viewed as a last chance buying opportunity by like-minded zombies taking their cues from Reddit message boards.

In a deja vu repeat of 2015, quarantined Chinese gamblers have been bidding up their own stocks amid unprecedented PBOC liquidity. It never occurs to them that if they are at home gambling, there is no one outside in the shopping malls. Central banks have created a lethal negative correlation between asset prices and the economy. A lethal disconnect which up until the past two weeks was growing ever wider.

2015 China Smash Crash + 2018 VIXPlosion = 2020 Super Crash

Some of you may recall that last week I posted this exact same chart, indicating a potential for another Blue Monday. However, in the event, the BOJ came to the rescue last Sunday night kicking off an entire week of central bank casino bailouts. 

The BOJ bailout saved the day. Monday. And then Powell's rate cut and biblical low U.S. yields unwound all of their work. Which is why gamblers are going to need a much bigger bailout this week. I think we all see where I'm going with this:

Corporations have hollowed out every aspect of society. The economy, the environment, but mostly the people. Today's brain dead iPhone idiots are the crowning achievement of corporate domination. An external gratification Borg now directed by ad-sponsored messaging delivered instantly by iPhone.

These people are taught from birth to be unhappy and to seek external gratification through consumption. They are dopamine addicts controlled by their corporate overlords. The new slavery is via debt. These people have no inner peace or zen, they are taught to seek competitive conformity and to broadcast fake happiness on social media. Inside they feel dead and empty. As they age, the dopamine highs diminish and the body becomes riddled with continual abuse. Until one day the opioids become the best option. These people never take the time to cultivate their true selves and inner character. Always pretending to be someone else, happiness is never more than a fleeting mirage.

We have reached the apex of this dead "way of life". A depressed zombieland now electing criminals to be president. Technology has dumbed people down to the point at which they are incapable of thinking for themselves. A con man's paradise.

Nothing is new under the sun for the hairless monkey. Our weaknesses are programmed into our DNA. Emotions never change over thousands of years, regardless of how much knowledge collects dust in our ever-growing libraries. It's useless when compared to a skilled demagogue preying on ignorance. If people continue to only live their external gratification lifestyles, this species will never stop making the same mistakes over and over again. Never understanding that the fatal weaknesses are not outside us, they are inside us. Greed, fear, ego, arrogance, laziness, envy.

Institutions were selling in size this week as Trump and his merry band of criminal accomplices gave them their last chance out of the Casino. So they hit the dumb money bid with both hands:

The bottom line is that the carbon output is collapsing as I said it would. The solution to this society's excessive carbon footprint was mass denial. And it's working fantastic. Now, they are even afraid to go on airplanes. 

The sensationalist headlines are click-bait designed to prey on fears. Fear is by far the most powerful human emotion. These "death toll" figures are meaningless and entirely without context. Thousands of people are dying every day of all different causes, but all we hear about is the latest body count from one of the LEAST fatal causes. I would venture that McDonald's kills more people every minute than Coronavirus has killed to date (rough approximation).

A wise man once said at the nadir of the Great Depression, "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself" (President Franklin Roosevelt). Unfortunately, we are a long ways down to that moment of rock bottom realization. There is a lot of panic between here and there. 

Fear and denial are now doing what no amount of Paris Conferences could accomplish.

Imploding a failed way of life in real-time, while denialist consumption addicts pretend it's not happening. 

Prepare for Shanghai Surprise. And biblical panic.

Rotation To Detonation

The MAGA Kingdom is imploding in broad daylight. Trump served his special-purpose of conning the useful masses. His true believers are accomplices to human history's largest fraud...

What we learned this week is that seven Hindenburg Omens on the NYSE were right after all. The Super Dumbfuck bubble is not going to crash, it's going to explode. This week, bailout whores got their eagerly anticipated bailout and they bought it with both hands. 

Where to begin:

Out of control virus

Global economy quarantined

Imploding Tech bubble 

Mass complacency

Credit collapse

Repo/liquidity collapse

China collapse

Collapsing Energy sector

No hedging whatsoever

Rampant lying about the economy

Extreme volatility

No stimulus safety net

Dumbfuck for president

Really, what's not to like?

Needless to say, the end of the cycle is the worst possible time for a hysteria-driven populace to hide under the bed. Record corporate debt has left record companies on the verge of insolvency. Now, this virus is going to set the dominoes in motion, via slow motion train wreck. Fortunately, this society has been told this is the middle of the cycle, so they don't have to worry about it. Global collapse is temporary, it will soon pass.

Meanwhile, the Fed is leaning FULL MMT already and the Dow hasn't even collapsed yet. Heli money is inevitable:

Which gets us to the Casino:

This week, the S&P backtested the 200 day moving average on the best news possible - Shanghai Accord 2.0, Fed bailout, and Joe Biden resurrection from the dead. 

And then it ALL exploded right back down to last Friday's lows today. What's left of the economic reflation trade imploded far below last week's levels amid a manic rotation to perceived safe havens. 

Here's what not to expect in the coming week: Shanghai Accord, Fed bailout, Biden resurrection, the majority of stocks holding up the market. 

Bailout whores got their bailout which they bought with both hands. They just failed to notice that it didn't work:

The story of this past week was bullish traders laid to waste in reflation trades. Treasury bond shorts annihilated. Oil longs monkey hammered and volatility shorts pounded for the second week in a row. These people can take a lot of pain apparently.

Here we see Energy stocks are back at 2009 lows:

Long term bond yields collapsed this week:

Emerging Markets have also broken last week's low:

The rest of the world failed the re-test:

Complacency remains rampant

"The sharp drop in bond yields has heightened the appeal of stocks with high dividends, and the recent selloff in the stock market has created plenty of them."

Tech was a key beneficiary of the panic out of reflation trades.

For now.

Despite two massive up days and massive inflows, "safe havens" ended the week barely above 200 day support:

You know you're an optimist when you take this home for the weekend not knowing if the next headline will take the global economy completely offline. 

The MAGA Kingdom failed the re-test:

What we saw this past week was a rotation to detonation deja vu of October 2008 during the week when the TARP bailout failed. This past week the Fed's .5% bailout exploded spectacularly. 

There is no stimulus safety net beneath the market. And as of this week there are no more safe havens in stocks. The safe havens are now the biggest bubble. 

The reign of Super Dumbfuck will be known for corruption, criminality, non-stop lying, Idiocracy, desecration, payoffs to whores...

And biblical revelation. When today's sanctimonious hypocrites wake up to the final realization that they're not Christian in any way shape or form.

They are useful idiots who got punk'd by a well known criminal. Making them accomplice to human history's largest fraud.

In an age when fraud has been normalized. 

In summary:

Hiding under the bed doesn't make problems go away, it only makes them far worse. 

Red Thursday

Any questions?

The S&P 500 is edging towards its re-test of the level it reached last Friday, however some sectors have already failed the re-test.

The Biden bounce lasted all of one day. As we see, the S&P closed at a level similar to last Thursday (circled). S&P 3000 is the critical level now, and it has been getting pounded all this week. Bears pressed into the close but were bid back by algos. In this explosive market anything could happen tomorrow. Extreme volatility is the order of the day, as it was back in October 2008. 

"On Friday, it fell to just 163 contracts—down more than 80% from a week earlier"


What could go wrong tomorrow when last Friday had an 80% drop in liquidity as more and more bulls get margined out every day by 1,000 point daily Dow point swings.

As we see from the heat map above, Financials got annihilated today.

Banks are already below last week's level:

The dollar  versus yen is getting monkey hammered by low bond yields. Last week's low is circled.

Global RISK OFF:

STILL no sign of panic selling:

The rotation to large cap Tech continues as the entire reflation trade is now bidless 

Zooming out to the weekly view we see that Transports are almost re-testing the December 2018 lows.

Remember, this is all "temporary"

This week in summary:

Chinese stocks are the strongest in the world right now.

The only stocks still keeping this gong show from exploding:

There are no safe havens in the stock market and every sector is pointing down now.   

Today was the fourth 90% down day (down volume / total volume) in the past week and a half.

In summary

"A swathe of highly indebted companies face an incipient funding shock and risk being shut out of the capital markets as the COVID-19 epidemic mushrooms into global crisis, Standard & Poor’s has warned."

There are mounting risks of a credit crunch in vulnerable sectors of the corporate bond market, potentially rocking an unstable financial edifice with record levels of debt and set off a dangerous chain reaction."

The Sum Of All Fools

Why is Bernie Madoff still in jail? He should be given a lead role in the Trump Administration. This is the greatest con job in human history without any comparison. It's all hands on deck...

Of course Trump couldn't do this on his own. This was a biblical scale circle jerk led by Faux News. History will say that Faux News was infotainment pablum for spoiled idiots who could no longer handle the truth. An entire station dedicated to brainwashing historical illiterates.

Orlov: License To Kill:
"George Orwell once offered an excellent explanation for this phenomenon: as the imperial end-game approaches, it becomes a matter of imperial self-preservation to breed a special-purpose ruling class—one that is incapable of understanding that the end-game is approaching"


I would change that to special-needs not special-purpose.

To be sure, CNN and MSNBC have devolved into politicized crap. U.S. news is by far the lowest quality in the developed world. NPR being the sole exception. The corporate versions are 100% garbage infotainment. Nevertheless, the forerunner into 24 hour brainwashing was Rupert Murdoch's progeny. What happens to every late stage empire when the inconvenient truth becomes "liberal". At that point an opportunity opens up to assure the dumbed down populace that everything is A-OK and that the widening cracks in the facade are merely a left-wing conspiracy. Propagated by commie pinkos who don't know exceptionalism when they see it.

Next thing you know, a known con man is deemed saviour. 

All of which fraud circles the toilet until the entire farce gets unexpectedly shit canned amid decade high euphoria.

Which brings us to now.

The formula for Faux News is to recycle the same myths over and over again ensuring to never question the underlying assumptions. Which is how they convinced 95% of today's economic pundits that the Trump economy is sound when it's the biggest fraud in world history: 

"Ninety-five percent of participants in a Deutsche Bank survey of investors, economists and other market participants released earlier this month said Trump, a Republican, was either “extremely likely” or “slightly likely” to win the general election."


95%. A staggering number of fools who are now convinced that printed money is the secret to effortless wealth.

No stimulus safety net for the first time in U.S. history. Featuring the lowest global interest rates in world history.

Borrowed GDP at 5% and a fully monetized deficit at 5%. For a total 10% of pro-cyclical stimulus. Unprecedented. 

A Coronavirus raging out of control.

No sign of hedging.

A society euthanized by central bank dopium. Fully Japanified. 

But most significantly, amid record low interest rates and excessive risk taking is the overwhelming desire to monetize poverty. The conditioned response to believe that global deflation is a buying opportunity.

The entire developed world economy now put at risk due to a conditioned zeal to believe that extant poverty is a financial opportunity. 

The greatest economic issue of our time - underemployment, is never even discussed. The continuous factory churn of quality jobs into the lowest quality junk jobs in modern history. The quiet and yet incessant conversion to a Third World economy. In broad fucking daylight.

Embraced by an Idiocracy celebrating the surfeit of crap jobs as labor share of the economy collapses to all time lows. Conditioned to believe solely what they are told to believe. By 95% of pundits, all of whom are brain dead. 


Now featuring an entire society conned to believe that they can ALL retire via a zero sum Ponzi scheme.

Conned by a known con man. The Creator's retribution for desecration. We can only assume. 

What comes next will be beyond description. Beyond words. Trump's approval rating will collapse like a cheap tent. Bernie Sanders will rise with every tick lower in the imploding Dow Casino. 

Fear will be extant. Compounded ten fold by the Corona plague and the incipient lurch towards global depression. An old age home hiding under the bed. Probably too afraid to even come out and riot like all good societies would do. 

Of course central banks will panic and flood the crash site with liquidity. However, the fuselage will be destroyed. It will be like pouring gasoline on a roaring fire. The sheeple will lose all confidence in central banks. 

QE will be flaccid. 

At some point - who knows exactly when - they will pull the trigger and unleash MMT for the masses. Free money flooding the money supply.

That will feel good for a biblical moment maybe a while even as the slack from deflation slowly dissipates. At first people buying foodstuffs and essentials. However, eventually prices of investment-grade items - homes and cars will reverse higher. And eventually they will explode higher, at which point today's fiat currencies will be destroyed. Rendered down to wheel barrow money.

What these morons do after that is a story for another time. I predict a barter economy aka. human history's largest yard sale. With enough stored corporate crap to keep markets saturated for the next 100 years. 

Brace for wholly unforeseen hardest landing.