"Thanks to the new-year bond selloff, Wall Street pros are doubling down on a big stock call for 2022: The leadership of high-growth tech darlings is no more"
Thursday, January 4, 2024
HAPPY NEW BEAR
"Thanks to the new-year bond selloff, Wall Street pros are doubling down on a big stock call for 2022: The leadership of high-growth tech darlings is no more"
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
2024: YEAR OF THE HANGOVER
Thursday, December 21, 2023
2023: THE LAST PUMP AND DUMP
Instead of joining every other pundit in predicting what won't happen in 2024, I would like to point out that 2023 is not over just yet...
This has been the largest % weekly gain to a 52 week high since 1998. The S&P 500 has been up 8 weeks in a row, counting this week. And yet we just learned that fund managers are the most bullish since the start of 2022. Which happens to be the last time the market peaked out and crashed from this exact same level. Can anyone explain why it is that media pundits can't check the charts to see what happened the last time fund managers were this bullish? Instead, they do the opposite and write as if it's a bullish fact that so many "experts" are bullish.
Ok, so instead of explaining to bulls the difference between a hard landing and a soft landing - which would be gratuitous on my part - I will instead focus on the precarious technical indicators that attend this current market.
The market is now overbought on every metric - momentum, breadth, and volume. Which is why I am calling this the "Santa Pause" rally. We are now to believe that this record overbought condition will not only continue next week, but into 2024 as well.
"Bank of America also found that 66% of the fund managers it polled expect the world economy to experience a so-called "soft landing" in 2024"
"The bank's own head of US equity strategy is expecting stocks to perform well in 2024"
Herein lies the problem - this is the FIRST time the Fed has "pivoted" to a dovish stance with the market already fully overbought. Prior to last week's FOMC, the market was already 6 weeks straight-line overbought because the market has been front-running this Fed pivot for ALL of 2023. However, when the FOMC turned inexplicably dovish, the market exploded higher to an even more overbought stance. At the beginning of December, Powell had called talk of rate cuts "premature". But then two weeks later, the FOMC put three rate cuts on the table for 2024. It's pure Idiocracy.
What this means is that the Fed has over-lubricated an already over-heated market. It's unclear why they would do such a thing, except to continue their unbroken streak of policy errors which began in 2021 by saying they would be "lower for longer". And then in 2022 they raised rates by the most since 2007 while keeping their balance sheet still almost 2x pre-pandemic. And then now, with this ill-fated dovish "pivot".
All of which gets us back to the pre-pandemic conditions in which the Fed had already pivoted and was using QE to address the "repo" crisis. By the end of 2019, they had cut rates three times in what they called a "mid-cycle adjustment", which came ten years into the longest cycle in U.S. history. So, risk assets soared and yield spreads collapsed, while the average stock went nowhere. And then we all know what happened next.
Astute observers will note that pundits were calling it a "soft landing" in late 2019. Not as soft as this one apparently.
In addition to the S&P 500 shown above, none of the other major indices have joined the price-weighted Dow Industrials at new all time highs. Here we see the Nasdaq Composite is still far below its all time high while the volume oscillator is now rolling over.
Yesterday, markets experienced a day of extreme selling, which came as a shock to bulls who are not aware such a thing existed. Pundits were scratching their head and calling it "inexplicable" selling. However, a brief glance at the NYSE volume oscillator shows that the market has tanked every time from this level during this past year.
It's only inexplicable if you are Stevie Wonder.
Here is another crazy factoid, the FANG+ are now up 95% year-to-date. And yet the majority of fund managers remain long Tech stocks for 2024:
"The most crowded trades include being long on the 'Magnificent Seven' and short on China stocks"
In summary, the REAL *smart* money trade is to fade everything Wall Street is doing right now.
And instead bet that Wall Street will explode in 2024 with extreme dislocation and the hardest landing since 1930.
At the latest.
And know one thing with absolute certainty - they don't see it coming.
Thursday, December 14, 2023
ALL IN COLLAPSE
Once upon a time the Fed said they would cut interest rates. So Wall Street went ALL IN…
What we have learned since 2008 is that monetary policy does not have unlimited power over markets, but it does have unlimited power over the imagination of 8 billion gamblers. Therefore, until such time as the last fool is found, it can indeed appear as if monetary policy is unlimited. If the powers of monetary policy were unlimited, then China which has been easing all of 2023 would NOT have the weakest stock market in the world right now. And Japan which has been easing for the better part of three decades would not STILL be below the 1990 high.
Therefore, it's ironic that Japan is finally moving away from negative interest rates which have been in place since 2007, which will put to test my theory that monetary divergence - now going in the exact opposite direction - will cause the $3 trillion Yen carry trade which accumulated while U.S. rates were rising, to explode as it did in 1998.
Ignored Risk: Exhibit A.
In the U.S., the belief that only monetary policy matters and all risks should be ignored grew out of the 2008 bailout and the attendant ten year span of 0% interest rates. That faith in monetary policy was reinforced again during the pandemic. Central banks have magical powers to bail everyone out. Investors seem to forget that both of those events came along with explicit government assurances that all bank depositors - insured or uninsured - would be made 100% whole. Something that the FDIC itself has already stated would be TOO EXPENSIVE to repeat in the future:
FDIC (May, 2023): Options for Deposit Insurance Reform
"Following the 2008–2013 banking crisis, the reliance by the U.S. banking system on uninsured deposits grew dramatically, both in dollar volume and as a proportion of overall deposit funding.20 From year-end 2009 through year-end 2022, uninsured domestic deposits at FDIC-institutions increased at an annualized rate of 9.8 percent, from $2.3 trillion to $7.7 trillion"
Ignored Risk: Exhibit B
Banks are now three wave corrective over the Spring (Feb '23) bank run. Shorts have covered on the belief that the worst is over. When in fact the worst has not even started yet.
Another key risk factor that giddy investors seem to forget is that home prices usually decline when interest rates are coming down. Whether that is correlation or causation is up for debate. However, clearly declining interest rates attend a weakening economy and the housing market is highly sensitive to overall economic activity.
Ignored Risk: Exhibit C.
As a fourth risk I would point out that this is the SECOND Dow Theory Non-confirmation that investors are buying in three years. And we all know how the last one worked out. Essentially what happened was that investors became more bullish over the course of 2019 as the Fed moved from pivot to full on easing. Which is why when the pandemic struck, they were maximum levered to risk.
The 2024 risks that are "invisible" now to bulls are invisible as the pandemic was in late 2019.
Ignored Risk: Exhibit D. Dow Theory confirmation requires that the Dow Transports make a new high to confirm the Dow Industrials new high. As we see, the Transports are a long way from confirming the Dow. In addition, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and of course Russell 2000 have not confirmed the Dow either. As a reminder, the Dow is the ONLY price weighted index, so it is not representative of market cap.
In summary, if you think that this divergence between investor fantasy and global reality has a happy ending in 2024, then indeed ignore all risk and go ALL IN. And then you will realize the hard way that in an Idiocracy, there is no strength in numbers.
"Check out the performance of the “Magnificent Seven” compared to the rest of the S&P 500 Index since the beginning of the year...the Mag 7 has done +71%, and the rest of the S&P 500 stocks have managed just 6%!"
These levels of concentration are unlike anything we’ve seen before — even the late ‘90s dot-com bubble doesn’t compare"
And it’s all happening because investors from all over the world keep chasing the same Big Tech higher and higher"
Ignored Risk: Exhibit E and F.
Thursday, December 7, 2023
THE WINTER OF DISCONTENT
2023 is coming to a close amid giddy optimism in markets. Pretty much every piece of junk that got bought in the past three years of pandemic asset bubble, is now hot again...
Dec. 1st, 2023:
"Stocks that got slammed amid fears of higher-for-longer interest rates caught a second wind during the roaring November market rally. The S&P regional bank index (KRE) rose more than 16% during the month...Cathie Wood's flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) gained more than 34%. Meme stocks are soaring too"
"Traders have decided that even though it’s still earning nearly 5%, cash is trash compared to quick profits in a wide variety of risk assets," Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick wrote in a research note on Wednesday"
Sosnick adds that the root of what he described as a fear of missing out, or "FOMO" rally, is the "expectation that rates will be coming down, and that is indeed a solid reason for a rise in risk assets."
This article came out on the exact same day that Powell warned that interest rates are not coming down any time soon:
Dec. 1st, 2023:
This is all very deja vu, because one year ago, stocks were rallying on the prospect of imminent rate cuts. Back then as well, the Fed was trying to tamp down expectations, but clearly they didn't do a good job of it because here we see that for over a year the Dow has been rising inversely to National Financial Conditions, since the lows of October 2022. Risk markets are unwinding the Fed's tightening.
Which means that the Fed is nowhere near cutting interest rates.
Nowhere is there more interest rate cut FOMO than there is in the housing market. Recently we learned that pending home sales have collapsed to multi-decade lows, but homebuilder stocks are at all time highs and leading the market. This week, Toll Brothers reported that their unit home sales collapsed -27% year over year and yet the stock went vertical. They "beat" Wall Street's negative expectations.
It's abject criminality on an epic scale.
If there is a recession in 2024 - which most economists are now predicting - then it will be the first back-to-back recession since the early 1980s. A mere two years between recessions. Normally, in a recession there is de-leveraging of debt, however, during the pandemic initially there was de-leveraging, but central banks created such an instantly massive asset bubble that by the end of the pandemic there was a massive RE-leveraging of debt. Which is what we see in the graph below. That has never happened before in U.S. history.
Which is why we are now facing a second recession, but this time at astronomical levels of debt. And yet today's pundits are telling people to buy stocks ahead of this recession. It's fucking ridiculous.
This week, Moody's downgraded China's sovereign debt from stable to negative. Which is the EXACT opposite of what happened a year ago when everyone widely expected China to lead the world in economic growth in 2023.
And yet we see below via the ISEE call/put ratio that speculators are MORE euphoric going into 2024 than they were going into 2023. What it comes down to is that investors have been hearing about the China economic implosion for so long that they no longer fear it. Even when it's happening in real time. Why? Because they have been convinced over and over again since 2008 that they will always get bailed out by central banks.
But remind me again which is the only major central bank right now that's easing?
China. And they have the worst performing stock market in the world. A harbinger of what's coming for every other risk asset market IN THE WORLD.
Thursday, November 30, 2023
BUYING THE COLLAPSE
The bull case and the bear case for 2024 are now the same - lower interest rates. Bulls are convinced that low rates are good for stocks - and they are...Unfortunately, the record clearly shows that rate cuts are NOT good for stocks.
It took decades to reach this juncture at which bulls are now praying for a weak economy. The divergence between the economy and stocks began in the early 1980s with the implementation of free trade and mass immigration, but it was kicked off by Fed chair Paul Volcker who famously broke the back of inflation by pushing the economy into a double recession at 10% mass unemployment. Those events set-off a multi-decade deflationary era which has been incredibly beneficial to markets at the expense of middle class labor. Another unhealthy predilection that started in the 1980s was this market addiction to monetary policy which started in 1987 with Alan Greenspan. Over the course of the past three decades, each time the economy weakens, the Fed has arrived with greater and greater monetary bailout policy. Filed under moral hazard biblical scale.
Therefore it can come as no surprise that for 2024 Wall Street expects a recession AND higher stock prices. A brief glance at the chart above will show that none of the most recent recessions led to higher stock prices initially. It took quite a bit of pain first: -50% in 2001, -55% in 2008, -35% in the case of the pandemic.
I didn't read that article, because I'm not interested in data mining ancient history to goal-seek stock bulls' requisite answer. We can see from my own chart above that this type of fool's errand is fraught with peril. Granted, the pandemic bear market was the shortest in history which is why it's an even greater fool's errand to believe that it was anything more than a speed bump in an aging bull market.
On a monthly chart, the pandemic "bear market" barely appears.
We were also informed this week that home prices have surprisingly reached a new all time high despite the Fed rate hikes. I'm sure the Fed was surprised to read that as well. It clearly shows that their rate hikes are not reaching asset markets.
Therefore we are now to believe that the Tech / housing bubble will continue to grow inexorably whether the Fed tightens OR the economy implodes.
Unfortunately for bulls, as I showed on Twitter this past week, delinquencies (adjusted for inflation) have now reached the same level as 2008. Except, the difference is that back then interest rates and home prices had ALREADY peaked and were coming down. Whereas now, neither is coming down yet.
More importantly, we see that delinquencies continued to rise long after home prices began to fall.
In summary, what we are witnessing is the largest policy error in market history. Bought with both hands by complacent bulls at the behest of known con men.
How this was always going to end.