The Virtual Simulation Of Prosperity

Following the highly successful global financial bailout in 2008, central banksters were hailed by this Madoff acolyte society as the saviours of systemic fraud and criminality. Therefore it was inevitable these fake gods of modern alchemy would continue to overuse monetary policy until such time as their virtual simulation of prosperity did more harm than good. But not before it became widely bought and believed as the secret to effortless wealth, and the secret to eliminating all recessions. The only question being why did no one try this sooner?

Unfortunately, history will say that it never happened sooner, because it first took a populace with the average IQ of a gerbil to believe this would actually work. 

What is amazing at this juncture is the fact that so few pundits today are concerned about this self-evident policy failure. Any blind man can see above that the "reflationary" impact of monetary policy has declined for the past decade. Now, at this late juncture the intended economic effect of balance sheet expansion wears off immediately since asset reflation is skewed  entirely to the benefit of the ultra wealthy. The second order commodity reflation effect wears off next as over-leveraged speculators get margined out - a process that is well underway. Which finally leaves the direct financial effect of central bank bond purchases which is to drive bond yields lower absent higher inflation expectations. And as global bond yields decline, the hunt for yield ensures that ALL markets converge back to the global deflation impulse. Which means that fund managers are forced to rotate out of reflation trades back into long duration trades (bonds, Tech) as a result of the falling discount rate.

The impotence of monetary policy at the 0% bound, is often called "pushing on a string": 

"Pushing on a string is a metaphor for the limits of monetary policy and the impotence of central banks. Monetary policy sometimes only works in one direction because businesses and households cannot be forced to spend if they do not want to. Increasing the monetary base and bank reserves will not stimulate an economy if banks think it is too risky to lend and the private sector wants to save more because of economic uncertainty"

Or, because interest rates have been at 0% for a decade and everyone is already maxed out on debt in the largest asset bubble in human history. 

It's clear that central banks will be the last to know that their policies have failed humanity. Not for lack of trying mind you. 

"We pledge to keep the deflation impulse stronger for longer"

  

Add in the central banks sponsored effects of record leveraged speculation, record valuations, and squandered stimulus buffer, and it's clear that monetary policy is now doing far more harm than good. It's putting the system that it sought to save in 2008 at far greater risk. Amid record wealth inequality driven by central bank policies, does anyone honestly believe there will be another Wall Street bailout this time around? We have reached the inevitable Humpty Dumpty phase of this NeverNeverLand economic expansion. The driving theory of the day is that as long as no one worries about risk, then there is no risk. Which is not exactly how it works.

The biggest risk to this entire gong show is now the sell order. All it will take is one cry of "fire" in this crowded theater to set off human history's biggest clusterfuck. Case in point, as the Delta variant spreads, another lockdown would render this market a smoking crater. And we know from past experience another lockdown is highly conceivable in this old age home. Regardless, when margin clerks are involved, the sell order doesn't need any more catalyst than the 200 day moving average.

Here we see that cyclicals are now becoming ever-more volatile as result of the imported global deflation impulse. These are not insignificant declines:

This chart below of NYSE breadth mirrors the disintegration of the reflation trade seen above. As the S&P 500 rolls higher, the internals of the market are in a waterfall crash lower:

Which leaves Tech stonks which are currently getting buried under an avalanche of new IPO issuance as Wall Street takes upon itself to underwrite another liquidation sale of Silicon Valley's mainstay output, junk stocks. 

But, like everything else in this Potemkin society, it's not what's taking place behind the curtain that matters, it's only the superficial that captures attention.

In summary, this society is deep under the spell of FOMC:

Fear of Missing Crash

Double Or Dog Food

People respond to incentives and the incentive arising from cheap money is to pull forward consumption from the future in order to live large today. From a speculator standpoint, the incentive is to borrow the maximum amount of cheap money in order to maximize risk. So it is that we find ourselves in a FOMO asset bubble which is driving FOMO consumption demand. The only thing that will be left when it all explodes will be the record liabilities. Gamblers have been doubling down on every dip since this rally began. So it was inevitable they would be one dip over the line...

The market fragility issues that almost imploded markets back in February have long since been forgotten. In the meantime, risk appetite has increased, margin debt has reached new records, and liquidity has collapsed. Perfect time for a Robinhood IPO to put the exclamation mark on this epic era of greed coming at the end of the longest cycle in U.S. history. The gamification of fraud packaged and sold as the "democratization of markets". You can't make this shit up.

Recall that the Coinbase IPO top ticked the crypto/Bitcoin rally back in late April. I see the same thing happening now with this imminent Robinhood IPO - a blowoff top in risk sentiment:

"More than perhaps any other company, Robinhood has benefited immensely from the animal spirits unleashed by a coronavirus pandemic-driven 18 months of meme trading and stimulus-fueled speculation. And it now seems poised to taste the other edge of the blade as a falling short-term market damps enthusiasm for what should be a long-term bet"

Ironically of course, Coinbase was also part of this stimulus-fueled speculation. From its first day peak, that IPO is now down -35%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin just broke the key support level which has been holding for over a month. The BTFD has failed, which means massive global margin call is imminent:

The IPO count so far this year is literally off the charts. This is already the busiest summer for IPOs on record:

"The great IPO boom of 2021 has already smashed the record for the busiest summer ever, and there are plenty of big deals still to come"

One thing we know for certain is that Wall Street will keep dumping new supply into this market until the casino explodes. They will not leave $1 of dumb money on the table. So it's perfect timing for Robinhood which will be one of the biggest IPOs of recent years. 

SPACs, IPOs, Bitcoins, Biotechs, Electric Vehicles, Cloud stonks, they're all the same trade now - RISK ON.

For months, the bond market has been warning that speculation is way out of control, meaning t-bonds are now a much better barometer of market risk than the stonk market. Why? Because deja vu of last year, today's gamblers would rather remain in the casino gambling, and learn that lesson as late as possible. Which is why each crash has been more abrupt than the last. Gamblers have become more and more over-confident with time. Absolutely convinced that central banks can bail them out of whatever massively over-leveraged bets they make in every asset class. This week we learned that margin debt increased again month over month to a new record high. This means that the second best first half in 20 years ended with maximum leverage.

This is the type of headline last seen in 1929:

"Rising stocks and rock-bottom interest rates have delivered a big perk to rich Americans: cheap loans that they can use to fund their lifestyles while minimizing their tax bills"

Banks say their wealthy clients are borrowing more than ever before, often using loans backed by their portfolios of stocks and bonds"

This tax avoidance scheme has gone into overdrive since Biden got elected, because the wealthy now fear a potentially increased capital gains tax more than they fear the market. In other words, they are willing to risk a 60% drawdown to save a few percent on taxes. Buy, borrow, die indeed.

Aiding and abetting this speculative insanity is the fact that today's economists, pundits, and gamblers are now convinced that the shortest recession in U.S. history corrected the longest expansion in U.S. history. You have to be brain dead to believe that, therefore it goes unquestioned.

It's official, we now live in a 100% Idiocracy. When debt is now "GDP" and printed money is monetizing the debt, then the concept of recession no longer has any meaning. In 2021, the U.S. Federal debt will grow 6x faster than the economy as a % of GDP. Had every other generation been this profligate, there would be have been no recessions in history, and the dollar would be worthless. This chart which I showed on Twitter and have since updated (corrected a few errors) gives an idea of the duration of this expansion/recession combination relative to past decades. The 1990-2000 expansion was formerly the longest expansion in history and yet it appears fractional compared to this current illusion:

Gamblers will inevitably realize too late that they went ALL IN a pandemic melt-up bubble arriving at the end of the longest expansion and bull market in history. Because really who wouldn't believe that a pandemic and attendant mass layoffs were catalyst for an entirely new economic cycle?

However, I made the case in my last post that the nations that have the most debt: Japan, Europe, U.S., Canada, Australia etc. now have the least likely chance of being in reflation. They are slaves to the debt market and debt is deflationary. The balance of power has skewed towards capital for too long and now the economy is buried by debt. Which is why monetary policy is  now solely for the rich, and the fiscal multiplier has collapsed. Which portends a deflationary ice age on the other side of global margin call. Picture a scenario in which the price of everything collapses at the same time. Gold jewelry is sold to pay the utility bills. Used car prices are a fraction of new car prices, meaning no one buys a new car anymore. Housing prices exploded globally. At that point, assets turn into liabilities. Those who have been binging on excess and borrowing against their assets in human history's largest asset bubble, will soon realize that their erstwhile lifestyle is now a ball and chain. Asset values collapse, but the attendant liabilities will remain at their peak bubble high.

Which gets us to where things stand right now in the casino. As I write on Tuesday, bulls are staging a miraculous comeback from yesterday's gap 'n crap. As I wrote on Twitter, the algos are doing everything possible to defend the 50 day moving average. However, we are seeing signs of hedge fund liquidation as the massively crowded reflation trade gets unwound and at the same time the ultra-shorted Ark ETF pair trade gets bought. Meaning hedge funds are taking down their total exposure.

One need not expect this fake Tech bid to turn into a new bull market:

Cyclicals are in no man's land:

Energy stocks are weakest and indicating a three wave social mood correction that has been conflated as a new bull market:

In summary, it was inevitable that today's bailout addicts would be one dip over the line. The incentive is to do stupid things with money, and they always respond to incentives. 

Fixing Inequality. The Hard Way

There are two ways to fix inequality - the right way which is raising the living standards of everyone. And the wrong way, which is ignoring rampant inequality until "the system" explodes. Guess which way was chosen...

There are many reasons why this society doesn't see this coming, however the main reason is because they are conditioned to ignore inequality in both the economy and in markets. At this late juncture inequality has reached biblical proportions and hence will be resolved the hard way. Among other things, this historically illiterate society doesn't know what happens from a political standpoint when inequality becomes too excessive and extreme. It's called revolution, and I predict that at the very least from an ideological standpoint, we are on the cusp of a paradigm shift in thinking.

To date, the obedient sheeple don't question "the system", because they are blithely unaware as to their role in this overall enterprise. Similarly, Madoff's investors considered him an investing genius until they found out the hard way that their gullibility was the sole secret to his success. Up until that time they never once questioned the outsized gains he was magically racking up.

Therefore, it's highly fitting that this Ponzified society is willing to ignore the chasmic inequality in this economy because they are solely fixated on bidding up their own assets. The market is now basically an analog of the underlying economy - a handful of massively wealthy and overvalued Tech oligopolies reaching record valuations aided and abetted by Fed socialism for the rich. And then the rest of the market, which is disintegrating in broad daylight.

The chart of the week is this one showing the Dow attempting a breakout to new all time highs (failed). And then NYSE market breadth which is deja vu of the 2020 collapse. And in the lower pane, I chart the inverse - % of stocks BELOW the 50 dma which is the worst since the October 2018 collapse:

This inflation hysteria created by the rabid right has been very useful in directing the Idiocracy's attention away from the economic inequality issue and instead towards the Walmart effects of Biden's policies. And yet not even one GOP governor canceling unemployment benefits has warned that monetary socialism for the rich is a major risk. Not one. That will be their undoing. In ignoring the greatest market and economic risk they have put the entire "system" at risk. One thing I've noticed is that the right loves protests when they take place in other countries. However, they don't like them as much when they take place in the U.S. This Ponzi market has set the stage for the biggest protest in U.S. history, and it won't be pro-capital.

All of today's "inflation" is not due to final demand, it's caused by central banks bailing out the wealthy. The effects of which are always transitory:

Recently I asserted that the world will always be mired in extreme deflation as long as there is extreme poverty. One of my Twitter trolls threw out Venezuela as the counter-argument. Venezuela has inflation precisely because they do not abide by the rules of Globalization which means they do not put capital markets first. And they've been poorly managed no question.  BUT to compare a country whose economy is a rounding error on global GDP, is like saying a spark on a glacier is going to lead to a wildfire. The world could never do what Venezuela is doing without first collapsing financial markets. Under the current paradigm we are slaves to the bond market and hence slaves to global deflation. Our leaders have no plan for how to get us out of this poverty trap. Japan has been trying for 30 years straight.

Nevertheless, I predict this politically motivated inflation hysteria and its attendant belief in higher prices, will move the ideological ball more than any left wing protest could ever hope for. And who can we thank for that but the very con men and denialists who don't want the change to happen. 

Biblical. 

Level "11" Market Risk

History will say that at peak Baby Boomer retirement there was not enough buying power to fund their market exodus so the geniuses of the day turned to money printing to get them over the cliff. The ONLY inflation these serial morons don't fear is stratospheric asset valuations...

This week, Fed Chief Powell gave gamblers the green light to party like it's 1929. The concepts of moral hazard and conflict of interest are now entirely foreign to this latent Idiocracy.

As against all of today's Ponzi schemers, the only ones who don't believe in Ponzi reflation happens to be the entire Treasury bond market. Copious morons bidding up their own assets versus the most liquid market on the planet. Who to believe? Given the asinine size of the deficit, it indeed seems axiomatic that inflation should be the dominant concern right now, however the fact that it isn't causing sustainable inflation should be of even greater concern.

It points to the fact that the fiscal multiplier has collapsed. 

My hypothesis is that with each successive recession and attendant mass layoff over these past decades, the Federal government has become  a far greater share of the overall economy. Which means that what would formerly be considered "stimulus" at any other time in U.S. history is merely backfilled GDP. In other words, absent this massive deficit, the U.S. would be in depression right now. To that point, the U.S. debt will grow at a 13% rate (vis-a-vis GDP) this year while GDP itself will grow 2% annualized vis-a-vis 2019 levels. A staggering gap that can only be rationalized in the context of 100% Japanification.

All of which means that "inflation" now depends far more on what is happening globally versus what is happening solely in the U.S. If the dollar soars, then deflation will be the end result as everything in Walmart will be much cheaper. And we all know these zombies love lower prices, EXCEPT when it comes to asset prices. When it comes to asset prices, they love hyper inflation. Why? Because they STILL can't remember how this movie always ends.

Picture a global housing bubble now BIGGER than 2008:

A Tech bubble that now exceeds Y2K:

“The problem with this setup is that tech sector profitability and earnings are vulnerable,” wrote Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. She sees “unprecedented headwinds” for the group"

A reflation bubble the likes of which has taken valuations to unprecedented levels by any measurement: Earnings, sales, market cap/GDP etc.

Dow Autos and Parts are just one example of the post-pandemic rally that was predicated upon ONE TIME earnings effects as compared to last year's lockdown depression. In other words, the same extrapolation that has abided the extreme "inflation" hysteria is now embedded in stock multiples.

"Sustained inflation"

And of course we must not forget the crypto Ponzi bubble and all of the other speculative pump and dump schemes that adorn this era. All coalescing during the tenuous re-opening phase of a global pandemic in which global mass unemployment has sky-rocketed. A minor detail in the overall "reflation" calculation, so we are told. 

And now the fiscal stimulus is unwinding as well. Which is a far greater factor for true economic reflation than monetary policy and the beloved asset hyper bubble. Gamblers are SOLELY fixated on Fed policy and ignoring the fast receding fiscal impulse which is driving the underlying economy.

In summary, this was a one time post-pandemic re-opening party. And sadly, the Fed can't bail out everyone who believes any different.

They are collateral damage, and despite watching the same movie over and over again, they haven't learned anything in the past twenty years:

 

World On Fire

Record temperatures. Cycle high inflation. Record speculation. Record stock issuance. Sadly, no one informed these people there is no such thing as Ponzi retirement...

We just learned that June was the hottest month on record in the U.S. At the same time, first half stock inflows were the hottest on record, and IPO issuance in just the first half hit a FULL YEAR record:

The market is on fire.

The Robinhood IPO which was sidelined earlier this year due to the Gamestop debacle, has now been opportunistically timed for the lowest seasonal volumes and liquidity of the year. Prime time for market manipulation at all time highs. Peak financialization is occurring at a time when market fragility is also at record extremes. Markets have been in a widely ignored liquidity death spiral for years. 

June 23rd, 2021

"Look, for example, at what has happened to trading in futures contracts on the S&P 500 index — typically the world’s most liquid equity index futures. Over the past decade their liquidity, as measured by market depth, has collapsed by around 90 per cent. This pattern is repeated across asset classes and regions"

"Lower liquidity, tends to amplify moves and exacerbate volatility"

History will say that the Millennials were reluctant to invest in stocks. So, Wall Street slapped a gamified interface onto a mobile app called "Robinhood" which turned out to be a Candy Crush gateway to Citadel. The world's largest and most profitable hedge fund and payment for order flow dark pool.

All packaged as the "democratization of markets". 

"It’s sometimes hard to identify era-defining moments when they happen; usually you can only really see them after the wave rolls back. Helpfully, Robinhood has given us a high place to stand so we can see a little farther"

Indeed.

As Baby Boomers retire in record numbers, it became necessary to entice reluctant Millennials into these fraudulent markets in order to become the end of cycle bagholders of record. Which means that we are witnessing the largest transfer of risk in human history. One must ask themselves, what type of  nihilistic society throws its own children under the bus - Whether talking about the stock market or Social Security defunded by serial tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, this society of assholes is guilty as charged. 

Sadly, no one informed these people that there is no such thing as Ponzi retirement. And the financial services cartel is certainly not going to let them in on that little secret. Every other ad these days is for retirement planning, wedged in between ads for erectile dysfunction.

Today we learned that JP Morgan profit DOUBLED while revenue fell. How? Because loan loss reserves were reduced. Another sleight of hand that is widely ignored in this house of mirrors. 

This entire fraud is now running on glue fumes, and collapsed summer volumes and volatility. Can it hold up until the Robinhood IPO or will it spontaneously explode at all time highs?

"Bull market"

Put it this way. 

If THIS is the GOOD news, imagine what the bad news will look like.

Today's serial psychopaths have designed the ultimate financial death trap. When the algos front-run record Robinhood newbies out the margin call door, that will be all folks.

Bullshit Is Driving Global Warming

These wildfires and record temperatures across the globe are another widely ignored warning for the days to come. The cost of this delusion will be measured not in dollars, but in carbon units...

COVID was the wake up call, so the Idiocracy hit the snooze button and went ALL IN risk assets at the end of the longest cycle in U.S. history. Gamblers to the very end. 

The leaders of this denialist paradise are the most corrupt human beings in U.S. history. They've profited mightily from the fact that societal moral collapse has been front-running their death spiral of depravity. And who to trust in this human disaster but the same assholes and policies that got us into it in the first place. I predict that the days of accountability are fast arriving for these serial psychopaths. 

We face an epic meltdown not just in markets but in human mental health as well. The self-indulgent consumption lifestyle has left The Lonely Crowd cleaved of any and all meaningful social connection. The end result is mental health breakdown, suicide, and addiction. Rampant selfishness is leading to societal disintegration. THIS is exceptionalism. Guns don't kill people, psychopaths with guns kill people. What should we resolve the guns or the psychopaths, let's vote for neither. The right is seduced by this notion that nothing has changed and we can easily revert back to the good old days, if we only had the will to do so. Unfortunately, EVERYTHING has changed. Everything has been denatured over the past decades. Which means that the good old days no longer exist in the current paradigm. We must adapt to survive. We cannot live in a Blade Runner reality soundtracked with country music.

Adaptation means that less is more. We must no longer strive for competitive self-destruction. And yet, the system demands that we be fed into the same old meat grinder as usual. Today's super idiots must obey the prime directive. The only vestige that remains of the past is the imperative to recycle proven failure. 

I personally don't worry about the carbon level anymore because this sequence of events will lead to the sharpest drop off in carbon output in global history. In addition, I don't concern myself with societal meltdown, because the Deep State has far more weapons and ammunition than their would be adversaries. In summary, I am not paranoid, I am enlightened. Because finally we see the Creator's Plan coming together.

And it's not carbon neutral. 

Super Idiocracy. Super Crash

In this society, asset hyper inflation is widely embraced, however if wages rise a tiny amount, it's the end of the world. It's what any terminal old age home in hardcore self-destruct mode would believe...

The COVID pandemic achieved the full virtualization of the economy. Working from home and shopping from home achieved mainstream adoption. Cloud Tech stocks skyrocketed. We now have a virtual economy consisting of delivery couriers drop shipping made in China junk to yuppy doorsteps. Fully bypassing the real economy. However when Biden got elected and the vaccine was distributed, the entire script changed. Now we have the greatest recovery in history and all of the deflationary factors that were accelerated by the pandemic have been long forgotten. From greatest virtual economy to greatest real economy in one year. 

Of all of the various pump and dump schemes from this era, cyclical reflation is by far the largest and most widely believed delusion. It's the post-pandemic super economy. This society is in mass denial over Japanification and the fact that there are now extreme levels of excess capital and excess capacity, both of which are deflationary. However, it's this excess capital that keeps propagating these lies and myths as it rotates from one global pump and dump scheme to the next in search of zero sum gains. 

Fittingly, when the GOP governors all decided to rescind unemployment benefits, all of the inflation trades began imploding. Once again, these idiots are learning the hard way that asset inflation is ALWAYS transitory. 

Even at this late stage their primary concern is STILL inflation. Why? Because per the rules of Japanification an aging society has a strong preference for return on capital at the expense of return on labour:

"Inflation’s silver lining: your retirement funds will be worth nothing, but you will be paid more after being forced to go back to work"

According to these assholes rising wages are the greatest risk we face. Notice there is absolutely zero concern for asset hyper-inflation. Which happens to be by far the biggest risk that retirement funds now face. But you can't tell that to an Idiocracy, because they know everything. Although I notice that it's dawning on them, that they got screwed again by their trusted psychopaths.

Today's pundits are telling the sheeple that this selloff is a buying opportunity. The question on the table is given the magnitude of recent inflation hysteria, how many more fools are left to buy?

This week, the market imploded twice overnight but the dip got bought with both hands in the U.S. As usual, there is absolutely no concern for what is happening in the rest of the world.

Amid all of this rampant denial, delusion, and mostly subscription based disinformation, it's also ironic that these dunces are now attempting to rotate BACK to the Tech bubble that imploded in February.

This week we got another Hindenburg Omen on the Nasdaq. Which indicates that the bifurcation in the overall market has now spread to the Nasdaq itself.

In summary, every dunce you ever met is betting this will have a happy ending.

Position accordingly.