"It’s a risk that many investors appear to be overlooking ahead of the annual conference for central bankers
Friday, August 20, 2021
Fool Me All The Time, Shame On Me
"It’s a risk that many investors appear to be overlooking ahead of the annual conference for central bankers
Tuesday, August 17, 2021
Bread And Circuses To The End
Saturday, August 14, 2021
Human History's Biggest Sucker's Bet
Wednesday, August 11, 2021
Shock Doctrine 3.0: END GAME
"Government officials and health experts are leaning on the private sector to lead the U.S. out of a coronavirus surge caused by the highly infectious Delta variant"
Monday, August 9, 2021
Don't Worry, Be Fat, Dumb, And Happy
Friday, August 6, 2021
Building The Perfect Ponzi Scheme
Today's bullish pundits can take pride in the fact that they have successfully participated in creating human history's biggest Ponzi scheme. All of the fraud and criminality from the past two cycles is rolled into one massive mega bubble. In doing so, they fully exploited the younger generations who have not the slightest clue how this level of fraud ends. They told them they were democratizing markets when all they were doing was democratizing bagholding. Today's ubiquitous sociopathic salesmen succeeded in leveraging a pandemic to create buying panics in everything that can be bought and sold from toilet paper to ammunition to McMansions, crypto Ponzi schemes, Ark ETFs, commodities, SPAC frauds, IPO garbage and of course S&P 500 stonks...
There are few if any pundits questioning this hyper bubble anymore. Skepticism peaked months ago. Why? Because from their point of view this Ponzi scheme is now flawless. It has achieved perfect extreme over-valuation and ALL IN risk positioning. In their minds, this Ponzi bubble has done nothing "wrong". On Twitter, I made the analogy of the Olympics - we celebrate the winners while ignoring the majority losers going home empty handed. It's called survivor bias. One troll asked recently if I ever make money. My response was never in Ponzi schemes. So far I have accurately predicted doom for crypto currencies, gold trades, Ark ETFs, Chinese stonks, and SPAC junk. In addition, I correctly predicted the rollover in bond yields which is something no mainstream pundits saw coming. Of course, the one prediction that remains elusive is that of the collapse of the major averages. Why? Because even as one after another sector dominoes collapse, the averages are seeing constant sector rotation. However, now we are witnessing breadth collapse in BOTH the NYSE and Nasdaq at the same time. And in addition, breadth has failed to rally during this latest "new high" in the S&P. The internals of the market are now the perfect analog for this speculative casino - a handful of winners and a majority of losers:
One thing we've learned in spades is that a society bereft of dignity and virtue will never appreciate dignity and virtue. Instead they flock to all of the various charlatans who will gladly exploit useful idiots to their own means. The definition of "inflation" is that prices can only go higher. Even at this late stage, the specious inflation narrative remains dominant. We have achieved inflation sans middle class. Even the Fed believes it now.
Here we see the velocity of money peaked twenty years ago when GDP growth and employment peaked in the U.S. The velocity of money measures the speed at which each dollar circulates throughout the economy. In an inflationary economy, the velocity of money sky rockets as consumers dump cash to hoard merchandise.
In summary, the magnitude of this fraud is directly proportional to the moral collapse of a decadent society in late stage self-destruct mode. ALL of the criminality of the past two decades has now been exceeded in this past year. A super Tech bubble with record junk IPO issuance. An even bigger housing bubble. Regulators asleep at the wheel, and of course wanking fucking bankers.
Wednesday, August 4, 2021
A Manic Reach For Explosion
We are now learning that the sole purpose of Monetary policy is to stimulate greed in an ultra greedy society. Central banks are keeping the spigots wide open to support the economy which is driving greed-addled gamblers to buy record inequality...
Another Nasdaq Hindenburg Omen yesterday - the third in less than two weeks, indicative of a bifurcated market disintegrating in real-time:
This greed-addled society has long since forgotten how this movie ended the last two times. The COVID ultra bubble makes the Dotcom bubble and Housing bubbles seem minor by comparison. COVID exposed Globalization's economic frailties which are now sending markets and the economy in opposite directions. Central banks are keeping the spigots wide open ostensibly to help the economy, but the only effect is driving economic inequality to ludicrous levels. Yesterday we learned that household debt is exploding at the fastest pace since the 2007 top. Too many people forget that debt follows asset prices higher, BUT not lower. When assets crash they turn into liabilities. Debt is deflationary. Underwater debt is lethal.
Trolls and other low life criminals now abound, exhorting everyone to engage in maximum Ponzi. The greed-fueled inflation thesis jumped the shark from risk asset markets to the economy and back again. No fool should be left behind. The concept of financial and economic responsibility is an abandoned relic of a bygone era. Deemed to be of no value in the golden age of printed money.
Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. As Japan and China have already learned the hard way, all of this central bank driven speculation brutally turns back into a deflated pumpkin overnight.
As the economic data continues to weaken, gamblers are attempting a last ditch rotation back to Tech stocks which are approaching another melt-up high. This time amid chasmic breadth divergences.
Here we see breadth attending this latest all time high:
Yesterday another Hindenburg Omen on the Nasdaq (lower pane):
Semis are leading this latest Tech melt-up. The Rydex ratio (lower pane) keeps making new highs indicating a manic reach for risk:
This is all very reminiscent of August 2015 when Chinese authorities used monetary policy to inflate the stock market in the face of an imploding economy. Shockingly, it didn't work. It was the end of imagined realities.
Guess whose turn it is this time.